Market Trends & Export Controls - US lifts export controls on chip design software to China, benefiting companies like Cadence Design, Synopsis, and Seaman's [1] - The Nasdaq is aiming for its eighth positive session out of the last nine [1] Company Impact & Beneficiaries - It is not a certainty that the mentioned companies will continuously benefit from the US lifting export controls [2] - EDA software tools are being exchanged for mineral rights, which is seen as a positive development unless overall trade relations with China deteriorate [3] - There is hope that Nvidia chips might be able to re-enter the Chinese market more significantly [3] Nvidia & Chip Capabilities - Nvidia may not be able to sell its highest-end chips in China [5] - Optimism exists for Nvidia to sell a toned-down version of Blackwell in China [5] - A toned-down Nvidia chip might have only 20% of the capabilities of a leading-edge chip [7] Security Concerns & Containment Policy - Concerns exist about security implications related to easing export controls [6] - The current policy of containment regarding China's chip capabilities has been largely unsuccessful [10] - China is using lower-performing chips and increased energy to overcome limitations [9] - China has been accessing chips through various means, including cloud services in different countries [10]

Overview - Omdia provides a detailed analysis and forecast of the semiconductor market in their 2025 quarterly report, focusing on global and mainland China market growth trends, application categories, and the impact of tariff policies on the Chinese semiconductor industry [1] Semiconductor Market - The report includes insights into various application categories such as smartphones, personal computers, data center servers, and automotive sectors, highlighting their market performance [1] Chinese Market - The report presents key financial metrics for the semiconductor industry in China, including gross profit margin, operating profit margin, and inventory turnover rate for Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, indicating a gross profit margin of 32.68% in Q1 2025 compared to 34.11% in Q1 2024 [10] Discrete Devices - The average gross profit margin for discrete devices in Q1 2025 is reported at 19.46%, an increase from 14.70% in Q1 2024, with total revenue for the statistical range at 219.91 billion RMB [19] Simulation Chips - The average gross profit margin for simulation chips in Q1 2025 is 35.32%, slightly down from 35.63% in Q1 2024, with total revenue reported at 109.20 billion RMB [13] Data Centers - The report outlines the competitive landscape of compute vendors in the data center market, noting significant players such as Dell Technologies and NVIDIA, with expectations of market share gains due to partnerships [29] Tariff Impact - The analysis discusses the implications of tariff policies on the semiconductor industry in China, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to changing trade dynamics [30] GPU Revenue Projections - Total GPU revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching 146.1 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 240% [38]

Group 1 - Apple's iPhone sales in China increased by 8% year-on-year in Q2 2023, marking the first growth in two years [1] - The growth was attributed to promotions in May, where Chinese e-commerce firms discounted the iPhone 16 models and Apple raised trade-in prices for certain iPhones [2] - The timing of Apple's price adjustments was strategic, coinciding with the 618 shopping festival in June, which is known for heavy discounts [3] Group 2 - Apple's stock has fallen approximately 15% this year, prompting investor concern, making the return to growth in China significant [3] - Huawei has regained market share in China, with its sales rising 12% year-on-year in Q2 2023, positioning it as the largest player in the market, followed by Vivo and Apple [5] - Huawei's success is attributed to strong user loyalty as customers replace old devices with new Huawei releases [6]

Huawei must face a criminal trial next year in New York after a federal judge refused a request by the Chinese wireless equipment maker to dismiss more than a dozen charges https://t.co/g3stFapBWp ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for Semiconductor Production Equipment is Attractive [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor production equipment market is expected to experience strong growth driven by demand for advanced packaging materials and AI-related technologies [12][34]. - Major companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which will positively impact the semiconductor equipment sector [8][21]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging technologies is projected to rise, creating opportunities for companies like Advantest and Disco [34][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor production equipment market is anticipated to grow despite a slow recovery in the overall semiconductor market, with advanced packaging applications expected to outpace other segments [12][34]. - The WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) market is projected to see low-single digit negative growth in 2025 [16]. Company Ratings - Advantest (6857.T) is rated Overweight with a target price based on a P/E of 14.0x [49]. - Disco (6146.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 25.1x [46]. - SCREEN Holdings (7735.T) is rated Overweight with a target P/E of 11.9x [54]. - Tokyo Electron (8035.T) is rated Equal-weight [113]. Demand Drivers - The increasing need for AI servers and advanced packaging materials is driving demand for semiconductor production equipment [8][12]. - Companies are expected to ramp up capital expenditures directed at HBM4 and advanced packaging technologies starting from the second half of 2025 [8][12]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-China trade tensions and export restrictions are influencing the semiconductor equipment market, particularly affecting sales to China [20][22]. - Domestic production of AI chips in China is expected to increase capital intensity, benefiting companies like Advantest and Tokyo Seimitsu [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for UBTECH Robotics is "Buy / High Risk" [8] Core Insights - UBTECH's humanoid robot business is currently behind schedule, but management is confident in meeting the 2025 shipment guidance of 300-500 units, with potential for exceeding this target due to multiple projects [1][2] - The efficiency of the humanoid robot Walker S1 is expected to improve from 40-50% of human efficiency to 80-90% by the end of 2025 through optimized motion control algorithms [1] - A new customer, a Chinese NEV OEM cooperating with Huawei, is anticipated to emerge in Q3 2025 [1][3] - Management believes that bipedal robots are more suitable for industrial applications compared to wheeled robots, although wheeled options may still be offered for specific long-range tasks [4] - The new version of the humanoid robot, Walker S2, is under calibration and is expected to debut in July or August 2025 [5] Financial Overview - The current share price is HK$83.95, with a target price set at HK$108.00, indicating an expected share price return of 28.6% [6] - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is also 28.6% [6] - The market capitalization of UBTECH Robotics is HK$37,087 million (approximately US$4,724 million) [6] Valuation - The target price of HK$108.00 is based on approximately 22x the estimated price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025, aligning with the average P/S of other companies in the humanoid robot supply chain [16]

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robots Industry Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from laboratory iterations to commercial applications in vertical scenarios such as inspection, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing [1][3] - The cost of core components like lead screws has significantly decreased, enabling faster iterations and closer proximity to mass production for companies like Tesla [1][3] Key Insights - Humanoid robots currently operate at approximately 0.3 times the efficiency of humans, with increasing demand from the ToB (business-to-business) sector [4] - The focus for future development will be on upper limb capabilities and brain technology, with dexterous hands being a critical hardware component [1][4] - Major players in the humanoid robot market include Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tesla, while emerging companies have opportunities to challenge these leaders [1][4] Market Projections - Expected shipment volumes for humanoid robots are projected to reach nearly 20,000 units in 2025 and 100,000 units in 2026, indicating a rapid growth phase [1][4] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year will focus on specific market segments and technological iterations, particularly in sensors, reducers, and high-density motors [1][5] - The supply chain is expected to see significant developments, with Tesla's supply chain already forming, and new opportunities arising in sensor technology and precision components [5][6] Technological Developments - The rapid iteration cycle of humanoid robots (approximately 2-3 months) allows for quicker technological advancements compared to electric vehicles, which typically have a 12-18 month cycle [7] - Key areas of technological focus include dexterous hands, lead screws, pick and place mechanisms, reducers, electronic skin, and six-dimensional force sensors [9][21] Supply Chain Dynamics - Core value and technological barriers in the supply chain are concentrated in components such as hand joints, lead screws, six-dimensional force sensors, and harmonic reducers [8] - The lead screw market has seen a dramatic price drop, with ball screw prices decreasing from several thousand yuan to under 500 yuan [12] Emerging Technologies - PEEK materials are gaining traction in the industry, with potential price reductions leading to broader applications in robotics [10][15] - The electronic skin technology is still evolving, with various approaches being explored, including resistive and magnetic methods [13][19] - Six-dimensional force sensors face challenges in cost and mass production, with ongoing developments needed in new technology routes [14][20] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing commercial applications. Investment opportunities are abundant, particularly in supply chain components and emerging technologies. Key players and new entrants alike will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of this industry [21]

荣耀终端股份有限公司（以下简称"荣耀"）的上市进程近日取得了重要进展。据证监会官网信息，6月 26日，荣耀已完成上市辅导备案，辅导券商选定为中信证券。按照辅导计划，该公司预计将在2026年1 月至3月期间完成上市辅导工作。 在市场竞争方面，荣耀的表现依然强劲。根据市场研究机构Canalys发布的数据，2024年全年，荣耀在 中国大陆智能手机市场的份额接近15%，位居国内市场第五位。尽管在全球市场，荣耀的销量份额仅为 5%，排名第七，但其在国内市场的稳固地位仍然为其上市提供了坚实的基础。随着华为手机业务的逐 步恢复，荣耀也面临着来自原用户市场的竞争压力。 从股东结构来看，荣耀目前拥有23家股东，其中包括深圳市鹏程新信息技术合伙企业、深圳市春芽联合 科技合伙企业、深圳市智信新信息技术有限公司、深圳市宝安区投资管理集团有限公司、国信资本、京 东方科技集团股份有限公司、中国电信、中国移动、金石星耀（深圳）智能设备私募股权投资基金合伙 企业等。值得注意的是，春芽联合集合了27家荣耀的渠道商和代理商，这显示了荣耀在渠道建设方面的 强大实力。 在资本层面，荣耀也动作频频。2024年8月下旬，荣耀宣布获得中国移动的投资。同年 ...

Core Insights - The Canton Fair, established in 1957, is a significant biannual event that showcases the internationalization of China's trade [2][3] - The current edition has attracted nearly 43,000 exhibitors and around 250,000 visitors, covering an area of 1.55 million square meters [3][4] Global Reach and Promotion - The fair has expanded its international reach through promotional events in various cities, including Vienna, Budapest, and Amsterdam, as well as in African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya [5] - The Canton Fair has been instrumental in helping Chinese brands, such as BYD, Huawei, Haier, and Lenovo, gain global recognition and market penetration [6] Opportunities for Businesses - The fair provides a platform for both large and small businesses to network and expand beyond major Chinese cities [8] - It accommodates a diverse range of sectors, with the spring fair focusing on electronics and home appliances, while the autumn fair emphasizes textiles and consumer goods [9] Changing Business Mindset - The participation of big companies aims to enhance international exposure and experience, reflecting a shift in the business mindset of Chinese exhibitors towards more proactive engagement in international trade [11][12] - The rise of Chinese fashion brands and designers illustrates the evolving outlook of Chinese enterprises in the global market [13] Cultural Appeal - The fair is complemented by the cultural attractions of Guangzhou, enhancing the overall experience for visitors [14] Future Prospects - The latest edition of the Canton Fair is expected to be larger and more impactful, aligning with the growing importance of international trading opportunities [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast for China at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a stable outlook despite lingering deflationary pressures [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs have de-escalated, challenges remain, particularly with persistent deflation expected to last for 15 quarters from Q2 2023 to Q4 2026 [4][5]. - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 0.5-1 trillion is anticipated in Q4 2025 to support infrastructure and key sectors, reflecting a shift towards a consumption-centric stimulus approach [12][10]. - The report outlines three scenarios: a base case with lingering deflation, an upside scenario with continued tariff de-escalation, and a downside scenario with tariff re-escalation [12]. Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025, with a slight decline to 4.2% in 2026 under the base case scenario [12]. - The GDP deflator is expected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, with estimates of -0.9% for 2025 and -0.7% for 2026 [12]. Tariff Analysis - The report assumes that US average tariffs on China will remain around 40%, with potential escalations still possible [13][14]. - China's export growth is expected to remain robust in Q2 2025 before declining in the second half of the year [15]. Domestic Stimulus and Policy Response - The focus of domestic stimulus will be on front-loading the announced RMB 2 trillion stimulus in the first three quarters of 2025, with a supplementary budget expected to be delayed until Q4 2025 [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from supply-centric policies to more consumption-driven strategies to address economic imbalances [70]. Consumption and Social Welfare - Consumption improvement has been policy-driven, but underlying momentum remains weak due to a sluggish job market [44]. - The report discusses the fragmented and unbalanced social welfare system in China, highlighting the need for reforms to enhance social safety nets [89][90]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is still too high relative to demand, with a need for structural reforms to address overcapacity issues [67][68]. - The report indicates that corporate pricing power remains subdued, with improvements in industrial profit driven by volume and cost reductions rather than pricing power [56]. RMB Outlook - The report forecasts mild appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with expectations of USDCNY reaching 7.15 by the end of 2025 [102][106]. - It also discusses the PBoC's plans for RMB internationalization and the establishment of a digital yuan international operations center in Shanghai [107][119].