RT Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69)Binance fud is spreading again… so let's actually have a look at it if its really in trouble..> BTC reserves: 659,000 $BTCthis has been stable for weeks. no sudden drops, no mass exodus> Reserve movement: 0.6%this metric tracks withdrawal velocity- FTX before collapse: -12% (panic withdrawals)- celsius before freeze: -80% reserves drained- binance today: 0.6% (essentially flat)> Netflows: normal rangedaily in/out activity looks like any other trading day. no unusual patt ...

Industry Overview - The Zacks Food-Miscellaneous industry is facing challenges due to cautious consumer spending and persistent cost pressures, impacting volume growth and pricing flexibility [1][4] - Companies in this industry manufacture and sell a variety of food products, including cereals, sauces, and organic items, primarily through wholesalers and retailers [3] Current Trends - Consumer behavior is shifting towards value-oriented purchasing, with increased demand for private-label and lower-priced alternatives, affecting branded food manufacturers [4] - Elevated costs in raw materials, labor, and logistics continue to pressure margins, despite some pricing actions providing partial relief [5] - Health-focused innovation and portfolio modernization are key growth drivers, as consumers show interest in functional and premium food products [2][6] Performance Metrics - The Zacks Food-Miscellaneous industry currently ranks 187, placing it in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating dull near-term prospects [7][8] - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, declining 11.6% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's growth of 17.3% [10] - The industry is trading at a forward P/E of 15.02X, lower than the S&P 500's 23.24X and the sector's 17.27X [13] Company Highlights - **Mama's Creations**: This company benefits from strong demand for premium meal solutions, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS rising 18.2% to 13 cents, indicating 44.4% growth year-over-year [16][17] - **J&J Snack Foods**: With a diversified portfolio, this company has seen its EPS estimate rise by a penny to $4.46, suggesting 4.5% growth from the previous year [19][20] - **Sysco Corporation**: This global distributor is focusing on productivity and supply-chain optimization, with an EPS estimate increase of 0.7% to $4.59, indicating 2.9% year-over-year growth [23][24] - **Celsius Holdings**: This company has a strong multi-brand portfolio and has seen its EPS estimate rise by a penny to $1.49, suggesting 18.8% growth year-over-year [27][28]

Core Insights - The Consumer Staples sector is gaining investor attention as a defensive stronghold amid macroeconomic uncertainty, benefiting from steady demand for essential products [1] - Despite higher interest rates and cautious consumer sentiment, staple consumption remains stable, allowing companies to sustain revenue visibility and cash flow generation [2] - The sector is expected to see a revenue increase of 2.4% while the bottom line is projected to decline by 2.4% this earnings season [3] Key Trends Shaping the Season - Consumer staple companies face challenges from elevated input costs, changing consumer preferences, and increased pricing sensitivity due to tariffs and trade-related levies [4] - Companies are mitigating these challenges by diversifying sourcing, localizing production, and renegotiating supplier contracts, which have stabilized cost structures and improved margin predictability [5] - Pricing discipline and a favorable product mix are crucial for offsetting cost pressures, with companies leveraging brand strength and innovation to protect demand and support profitability [6] Earnings Outlook - Defensive demand, manageable tariff-related pressures, and continued cost discipline position select consumer staple stocks to potentially surpass earnings estimates this season [7] - The Hershey Company (HSY) is well-positioned with strong brand equity, disciplined pricing, and ongoing productivity initiatives, with an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank 1 [10][11] - Estee Lauder Companies (EL) is focused on restoring sustainable growth through brand prioritization and innovation, with an Earnings ESP of +6.62 and a Zacks Rank 2 [12][13] - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is driving demand through innovation and strategic partnerships, with an Earnings ESP of +15.27% and a Zacks Rank 3 [14][15] - Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) benefits from global energy drink expansion and strong consumer connections, with an Earnings ESP of +17.16% and a Zacks Rank 3 [16][17]

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. reported international revenue of $23.1 million for Q3 fiscal 2025, marking a 24% year-over-year increase and contributing to a year-to-date total of $70.6 million, which is up 30% from the same period in 2024 [1][5] Group 1: International Revenue Growth - The growth in international revenue was supported by strong performance in the Nordics and expanding contributions from newer markets such as the U.K., Ireland, France, Australia, New Zealand, and the Benelux region [2][3] - Australia emerged as a notable contributor with performance exceeding expectations due to deeper retail engagement, while European markets are still in foundational stages, focusing on strengthening retailer relationships [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The company emphasized that its international business is in a build-out phase, prioritizing distribution establishment, brand awareness, and market-specific execution capabilities [3][5] - The health, fitness, and wellness trends driving demand in the U.S. are also resonating in international markets, providing a consistent backdrop for expansion [3] Group 3: Comparison with Peers - Monster Beverage reported double-digit year-over-year international net sales growth, with international results outpacing North America [6] - PepsiCo achieved its 18th consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth internationally, benefiting from scale and distribution strength [7] - Coca-Cola reported positive international unit case volume growth, highlighting the importance of international markets to its overall growth [8]

Group 1 - Short interest has more than doubled over the past month, sitting near one-year range highs, indicating potential buying opportunities in the subsequent months [1][3] - Options are currently affordable, with the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) reading at 66%, ranking in the 29th annual percentile, suggesting favorable conditions for bullish positions [1][3] - The recommended March call has a leverage ratio of 5.3, which will double on a 22.3% rise in the underlying equity, highlighting the potential for significant gains [1] Group 2 - JFrog Ltd (NASDAQ:FROG) experienced a 27% post-earnings increase on November 7, which has provided support during its recent pullback [2] - The shares are trading at their 100-day moving average, a trendline that has shown favorable results recently [2] - Put support is identified between the 55 and 60 strikes, while peak call open interest at the 60-strike has dissipated, indicating potential movement towards higher strikes if the stock breaks above $62.50 [2]

分组1 - Beyond Meat is launching a new protein-packed sparkling beverage aimed at competing with energy drink brands like Celsius and Red Bull, indicating a strategic shift for the company [1] - CrowdStrike's CEO highlights the cybersecurity risks associated with AI agents, emphasizing the need for security measures to mitigate potential business risks [4] - Perella Weinberg's CEO expresses optimism about the M&A outlook for 2026, citing strong equity and credit markets along with a favorable regulatory environment as key drivers for increased transaction activity [5] 分组2 - BitWise's CIO predicts that Bitcoin will decouple from traditional stocks, driven by unique factors such as fiscal debasement and institutional investment, suggesting Bitcoin's maturation as a distinct asset class [3] - Thinkorswim's founder anticipates a potential market pullback in early spring, indicating that many stocks are fairly priced and a downside momentum could lead to a sell-off of 10% to 15% [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings experienced a significant stock rebound in 2025, with shares increasing by 74%, contrasting with a 16% gain for the S&P 500, indicating strong consumer demand despite previous challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Celsius faced a 52% decline in stock value due to stalled growth, with a notable 31% drop in Q3 revenue, which management attributed to inventory fluctuations with PepsiCo [2][4]. - By 2025, Celsius reported a remarkable 75% top-line growth through the first three quarters, demonstrating a recovery in consumer interest and sales [1][6]. - The company acquired Alani Nu for $1.65 billion in April 2025, contributing to its growth, although inorganic growth raises concerns about financial and integration risks [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the revenue drop in 2024, Celsius maintained its market share and distribution, with retail sales of the Celsius brand growing by 13% year over year in the 13 weeks leading up to September 28, 2025 [7]. - The Alani Nu brand has not cannibalized Celsius' sales, with Alani Nu's net sales increasing by 115% year over year, indicating a complementary growth strategy [8][9]. - International revenue accounted for only 3% of total revenue in Q3, suggesting significant potential for growth in global markets [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Celsius is positioned for continued profitable growth, with multiple growth levers including the Alani Nu brand and international expansion [8][11]. - The current valuation of Celsius, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 6, is considered attractive compared to its 10-year average [11]. - Long-term growth prospects remain strong, with expectations for Celsius to outperform the market over a five-year horizon [13].

Core Viewpoint - Celsius Holdings (CELH) is currently trading at $53.53, significantly below its all-time high of nearly $100 in March 2024, but has recovered from a low of approximately $21 in February 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has shown a notable recovery from its February 2025 low, indicating potential resilience in its market performance [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks while also exploring other investment opportunities [1] - The investment approach is flexible, with no specified time horizon, allowing for adjustments based on the validity of the investment thesis [1] Group 3: Analytical Background - The analyst has developed market-beating algorithms using Python, which assist in identifying attractive investment opportunities [1] - Previous experience includes roles at TipRanks as an analysis/news writer and editor, enhancing the ability to discern market trends and investor interests [1]

Group 1 - Celsius Holdings (CELH) is currently undervalued and presents significant upside potential due to strong growth and benefits from its integration with PepsiCo [1] - Following the unexpected termination costs, which were fully covered by PepsiCo, the stock experienced a 30% decline within two days after the Q3 earnings release [1]

Group 1 - Celsius Holdings (CELH) is currently undervalued and presents significant upside potential due to strong growth and benefits from its integration with PepsiCo [1] - Following the unexpected termination costs, which were fully covered by PepsiCo, the stock experienced a 30% decline within two days after the Q3 earnings release [1]