Trade Negotiations & Tariffs - The back half of the year is expected to resolve many trade issues, but progress has been slow [1] - Complexity of deals and limited US negotiation resources are delaying progress [2][3] - Reciprocal tariffs on some countries like Japan and India are likely [4][5] - EU negotiations are particularly tough, involving value-added tax, anti-monopoly law, and food regulations [8][9] China Trade Dynamics - China negotiations are focused on export controls in exchange for US access to rare earths [7][8] - A China deal is not expected to be negotiated quickly, with tariffs potentially remaining around 30% [8] - Securing a deal with China on export controls could open doors to further negotiations [8] Impact on Trade Relations - Failure to reach deals with Japan, India, and the EU could complicate a final deal with China [6] - The US is pursuing the most difficult trade issues, not low-hanging fruit [3]

India refuses to sign joint statement at the SCO summit https://t.co/3um12fyPY6 ...

We just signed with China yesterday. We're not going to make deals with everybody. Some we're just going to send them a letter, say, "Thank you very much. You're going to pay 25, 35, 45%." But we're having some great deals.We have one coming up maybe with India, very big one, where we're going to open up India. In the China deal, we're starting to open up China. Things that never really could have happened.Then the relationship with every country has been very. ...

Fred, you're here in studio. I'm going to start with you. Good morning.Thanks again for being here. Morning. Um, as we look at uh the end of these quote unquote liberation day tariffs pause coming up, you know, in about two weeks, even though we know it could even be longer because it's being battled in court right now.What does this all mean for emerging markets considering the other action we're seeing the potential of a rate cut in the US and then also a weakening dollar. Well, everybody really wants to ...

Geopolitical Landscape in the Indian Ocean - The Indian Ocean is vital for global commerce, serving as a critical passage for trade between Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia [1] - Increased competition exists between the US and China, and between China and India, for influence in the region [3] - President Trump's foreign policy shift has created uncertainty about the US's role, opening doors for China [3] - Tiny countries like Mauritius are being courted by major powers due to their strategic location [4] China's Growing Influence - China is investing billions in ports, infrastructure, and naval expansion in the Indian Ocean region, raising concerns in India [2] - As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China is asserting regional influence with multibillion-dollar infrastructure investments [14] - China has built its first military base in Djibouti and is expanding its naval footprint in Cambodia [16] India's Response and Concerns - India relies on the Indian Ocean for approximately 95% of its international trade and 80% of its energy [11] - India is constructing a new airstrip on the Agaléga islands to track Chinese activity [7] - India has commissioned a new base on Minicoy Island and opened its first offshore military logistics hub at Duqm Port in Oman [20] - India views the potential for an external power, particularly China, to disrupt trade routes as a significant threat to its national security [17] US Role and Retreat - US cuts to foreign assistance are seen as an opportunity for China to fill the gaps [18] - The US base on Diego Garcia is crucial for countering China's growing presence in the region [19]

LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING US IS STEPHEN SHORCK. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT THEY WILL LAST.IT WILL DEPEND ON FURTHER ESCALATION AND HOW LONG THE HOSTILITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION OF A WAIT AND SEE. THE MARKET HAS PRICED IN GREATER VOLATILITY.WHAT WE SAW BEFORE LAST THURSDAY WAS A MARKET SWITCHING INTO THE BRENT AND WTI BEGINNING IN 2026 HAD SWITCHED TO A MARKET WHERE PRICES FOR JANUARY WERE CHEAPER THAN FEBRUARY AND SO FORTH. THIS IS A CLASSIC FUNDAMENTAL TELLTALE THAT THE MARKET IS PRICING I ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, the lowest rate since 2008, excluding global recession years [1][55] - Growth in advanced economies is projected to decline to 1.2%, with significant impacts from trade policies in the US and Eurozone [2][55] - Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are forecasted to grow at 3.8%, with China at 4.5% and India at 6.3%, although many countries are underperforming relative to expectations [2][55] Trade and Inflation - Global trade growth is anticipated to drop to 1.8% in 2025, with commodity prices expected to decline by 10% [2][67] - Global inflation is projected at 2.9% in 2025, with core inflation remaining high due to persistent service price pressures [2][68] Regional Economic Prospects - East Asia and Pacific growth is expected to slow to 4.5%, with risks from trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [4][56] - Europe and Central Asia are projected to grow at 2.4%, affected by tightening monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][56] - Latin America and the Caribbean are forecasted to have the lowest growth among EMDE regions at 2.3%, hindered by high trade barriers [5][56] - The Middle East and North Africa are expected to grow at 2.7%, with oil-exporting countries mitigating price drops through increased production [6][56] - South Asia is projected to grow at 5.8%, driven by India, while facing challenges from political and economic issues in neighboring countries [6][56] - Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 3.7%, with Nigeria and South Africa showing weak growth due to reliance on commodity exports [7][56] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Major risks include escalating trade barriers, tightening global financial conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme weather events [8][54] - Policy recommendations emphasize global cooperation to rebuild trade relations, restore fiscal order, and accelerate job creation [9][10][11]

Investment Strategy - Long-term investment themes are recommended during uncertain periods [2] - Investing in India is suggested due to its similar profile to China 35 years ago, highlighting potential for significant growth [2] - The recommendation is to invest and hold for the long term, potentially for future generations, to avoid selling during market downturns [3] India's Potential - India possesses a similar demographic outlook to China, including a large population and growing labor force [2] - India faces challenges such as a gummed-up legal system and corruption, but these are considered fixable [2] - India benefits from the potential relocation of supply chains and manufacturing [2] Global Economic Perspective - The report questions whether the economic issues are specific to the United States or a global problem [1] - The possibility of mitigating risk by investing in regions like Europe or Japan is raised, suggesting limited protection [1]

Mr. . President, how imminent is an Israeli strike on Iran. Well, I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen.Look, it's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful. I want them to be we'll help them be successful or trade with them.We'll do whatever is necessary. You know, I stopped a war between India and Pakistan, and I stopped it with straight nobody. I don't think I've ever seen a story wri ...

10 May 2025 | 4:20AM SGT Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart MXAPJ stayed around its ytd highs; Hong Kong and China A led this week; Strong foreign inflows continued despite a stronger Dollar MXAPJ rose 0.3%, led by Hong Kong (+4%), China-A (+2%), and Singapore (+1%), while India (-2%), Australia (-1%), and Indonesia (muted) lagged. Tech Hardware & Semis, Transportation, and Insurance & Financial Services led Health Care, Energy, and Software. EM Asia experienced strong foreign inflows totaling US$4.1bn, led by T ...