Core Viewpoint - Tobacco company Altria has forecasted full-year profit that exceeds analysts' estimates, driven by price increases for its cigarette and oral tobacco products [1] Group 1 - Altria's profit forecast indicates a positive outlook for the company, suggesting strong demand and pricing power in its product categories [1] - The price hikes for both cigarette and oral tobacco products are key factors contributing to the improved profit outlook [1]

The maker of Marlboro cigarettes reports weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings. ...

Core Insights - Altria reported a decline in fourth-quarter profit due to a decrease in cigarette shipment volume, negatively impacting its smokeable product business [1] Financial Performance - The company's fourth-quarter profit was lower compared to previous periods, primarily driven by reduced cigarette shipments [1] Market Trends - The decline in cigarette shipment volume indicates a broader trend affecting the smokeable product market, suggesting potential challenges for the industry [1]

Financial Performance - Altria's adjusted diluted EPS for 2025 increased by 4.4% to $5.42, while reported diluted EPS decreased by 37.0% to $4.12 due to non-cash impairment charges and unfavorable tax items [3][24]. - For Q4 2025, net revenues were $5.846 billion, a decrease of 2.1% compared to Q4 2024, with revenues net of excise taxes at $5.079 billion, down 0.5% [4][24]. - For the full year 2025, net revenues totaled $23,279 million, a decrease of 3.1% from $24,018 million in 2024 [74]. - Net earnings for Q4 2025 dropped to $1,117 million, a significant decline of 63.2% from $3,039 million in Q4 2024 [70]. - 2025 net earnings decreased to $1,117 million, a 63.2% decline from 2024's $3,039 million [81]. - Adjusted net earnings for 2025 were $2,182 million, a slight decrease of 1.4% compared to $2,214 million in 2024 [83]. - The company reported a significant asset impairment of $1,921 million in 2025, impacting net earnings [85]. - The company reported a fair value adjustment for NJOY transaction contingent payments of $25 million [99]. - Total net revenues for the company reached $23,279 million, with revenues net of excise taxes at $20,139 million [102]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $8 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with $7 billion in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchases [3][6]. - Altria aims for a progressive dividend growth target of mid-single digits annually through 2028, having increased its dividend by 3.9% in 2025 [10]. Cost Management - The company plans to achieve cumulative cost savings of at least $600 million by the end of 2029 through its Optimize & Accelerate initiative [10]. - The company incurred asset impairment and exit costs of $978 million in 2025, compared to $389 million in 2024 [74]. - The company incurred asset impairment, exit, and implementation costs totaling $2,184 million [102]. Market Performance - Domestic cigarette shipment volume for the smokeable products segment decreased by 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with total cigarette shipment volume down 10.0% for the full year [38][42]. - Marlboro's retail share of the total cigarette category was 39.8% in Q4 2025, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [43][44]. - For oral tobacco products, net revenues increased by 2.0% to $706 million in Q4 2025, while revenues net of excise taxes rose by 2.9% to $682 million [46][47]. - The total oral tobacco products retail share decreased to 30.9% in Q4 2025 from 32.9% in Q3 2025 [98]. Operational Metrics - Altria's total adjusted operating companies income (OCI) margin for 2025 was 62.4%, while the reported OCI margin was 51.1% [12]. - Reported OCI for smokeable products increased by 0.2% to $2.643 billion in Q4 2025, while adjusted OCI decreased by 2.4% to $2.643 billion [35][37]. - Reported operating companies income (OCI) was $10,286 million, while adjusted OCI stood at $12,568 million [102]. - The OCI margin was reported at 51.1%, with adjusted OCI margin at 62.4% [102]. Debt and Assets - Altria's debt-to-Consolidated EBITDA ratio was 2.0x at year-end 2025, aligning with its target [10]. - Total liabilities increased to $38,469 million in 2025 from $37,365 million in 2024 [89]. - Long-term debt rose to $24,140 million in 2025, compared to $23,399 million in 2024 [89]. - Total debt as of December 31, 2025, amounted to $25,709 million, with a cash and cash equivalents balance of $4,474 million [99]. Future Outlook - Altria expects 2026 full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.56 to $5.72, representing a growth rate of 2.5% to 5.5% from 2025 [3][13]. - The company is focusing on transitioning adult smokers to smoke-free products and exploring new growth opportunities beyond nicotine [57]. - The company plans to continue focusing on operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions to enhance market position [83].

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 29, with revenues projected at $5 billion, reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year, while earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at $1.31, indicating a 1.6% growth from the previous year [1][9] Earnings Performance - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.1%, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.7% [2] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [4][3] Factors Influencing Q4 Earnings - The fourth-quarter performance is likely influenced by disciplined pricing and effective cost control, despite pressure on domestic cigarette shipment volumes due to inflation [5] - Altria has maintained steady profitability through solid revenue management and disciplined cost control, with pricing gains across core smokeable brands cushioning operating income [6] Oral Tobacco Business - A significant contributor to Altria's earnings is its oral tobacco business, particularly nicotine pouches, which have aided segment profitability despite competitive pressures [7] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria's stock has gained 0.6%, underperforming the Zacks Tobacco industry's 12.1% increase and the Consumer Staples sector's 3.7% growth [8] - Compared to peers, Altria's stock performance has lagged, with competitors like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco showing higher gains [8] Valuation - Altria's shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 11.39, below the industry average of 15.48, indicating compelling value for investors [10] - The valuation gap is notable when compared to key competitors, which have significantly higher P/E ratios [11] Investment Outlook - Altria demonstrates resilience through effective pricing strategies and cost management, offsetting volume pressures in its core cigarette business [12] - The expanding smoke-free portfolio, particularly nicotine pouches, is a key driver for margin support and earnings stability, making Altria an appealing defensive consumer staples stock [12]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in dividend stocks provides a reliable income stream that can be reinvested or used for expenses, allowing investors to hold shares without selling them [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending and Dividend Stocks - Consumer spending is crucial for the economy, and high-quality dividend stocks can be found in consumer-facing companies with strong brands [2] - Examples of such companies include Costco Wholesale, The Coca-Cola Company, and Altria Group, each representing different investment styles [2] Group 2: Costco Wholesale - Costco Wholesale is a leading retailer with a loyal customer base, known for its membership model and bulk merchandise sales [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $431 billion, with a current stock price of $970.66 and a dividend yield of 0.52% [4][5] - Costco has paid and raised its dividend for 20 consecutive years, spending only a quarter of its earnings on dividends, indicating potential for future growth [5] Group 3: The Coca-Cola Company - Coca-Cola is a global beverage leader with a strong track record of dividend growth, having increased its dividend for 62 consecutive years [6] - The company has a market capitalization of $316 billion, with a current stock price of $73.55 and a dividend yield of 2.77% [7][8] - Coca-Cola's growth is supported by a rising global population and brand recognition, allowing for continued expansion in a fragmented beverage market [8] Group 4: Altria Group - Altria Group, known for its Marlboro cigarettes, has maintained profitability despite declining cigarette sales due to its pricing power [9] - The company has a market capitalization of $107 billion, with a current stock price of $63.62 and a dividend yield of 6.54% [10] - Altria has achieved 54 consecutive annual dividend increases, providing a substantial yield despite low single-digit earnings growth [10]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is shifting its focus from traditional tobacco products to non-nicotine and wellness categories as part of its long-term growth strategy, reinforced by a collaboration with KT&G Corporation to explore consumer opportunities beyond nicotine-based products [1][8] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - The partnership with KT&G aims to explore U.S. non-nicotine opportunities, aligning with Altria's diversification ambitions articulated in March 2023, combining KT&G's product expertise with Altria's U.S. commercialization capabilities [2] - Altria's initiative is not aimed at driving immediate growth but is part of a broader review of adjacent markets to diversify the business as cigarette volumes decline, emphasizing a structured approach within its "Optimize & Accelerate" framework [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. is advancing its smoke-free transformation, with smoke-free products accounting for approximately 41% of total net revenues in Q3 2025, while also reassessing its wellness ambitions as a longer-term opportunity [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is experiencing significant growth in its Modern Oral segment, with sales surging 627.6% year over year in Q3 2025, supported by increased sales investment and a new U.S. manufacturing facility planned for early 2026 [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Altria's shares have increased by 9.3% over the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 6.3% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.28X, lower than the industry average of 15.3X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings has increased by 3 cents to $5.44 for the current financial year and by 2 cents to $5.58 for the next financial year [10]

分组1: Market Outlook - Wall Street strategists emphasize the importance of earnings growth for driving the stock market higher in 2026, with a favorable backdrop due to easing inflation and job growth [1] - Analysts predict solid earnings results for the S&P 500, with a forecasted profit growth of approximately 8.3% year-over-year for Q4, while FactSet analysts project growth could exceed 14% [2] - 79% of the 33 S&P 500 companies that reported Q4 results have surpassed analysts' EPS estimates, indicating strong performance [3] 分组2: Investment Opportunities - The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE:BK) is highlighted as a profitable cheap stock, with a forward P/E of 14.14, profit margin of 27.59%, and net income of $5.31 billion, supported by 62 hedge fund holders [8] - Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is also identified as a profitable cheap stock, featuring a forward P/E of 11.20, profit margin of 43.98%, and net income of $8.84 billion, with 64 hedge fund holders [12] - UBS has increased its price target for Altria Group from $63 to $67, maintaining a Buy rating, while noting manageable risks and potential for revenue growth in smoke-free products [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Altria is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.31 per share, a 1.6% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $5 billion, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised downward by 0.4% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate that revenues net of excise taxes for Oral Tobacco Products will reach $673.99 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.7% [5]. - For Smokeable Products, revenues net of excise taxes are expected to be $4.29 billion, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 3% [5]. Operating Income Estimates - Reported Operating Companies Income for Oral Tobacco Products is projected at $466.35 million, up from $453.00 million a year ago [6]. - Adjusted Operating Companies Income for Smokeable Products is expected to be $2.67 billion, down from $2.71 billion in the same quarter last year [6]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Altria's shares have increased by 7.5%, compared to a 0.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6]. - Altria currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [6].

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is facing challenges as revenue declines despite high dividend returns and low stock prices, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend payments [1][12]. Financial Performance - Altria's stock price has increased since the beginning of 2024, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, leading to mixed investor sentiment regarding its valuation [2][11]. - The company has an annual dividend payout of $4.24 per share, yielding 6.8%, and has consistently raised its dividend since 2009 [5][10]. - Over the past 12 months, Altria generated approximately $9.2 billion in free cash flow, which covered $6.9 billion in dividend costs, leaving limited cash for other investments [8]. Strategic Missteps - Altria's attempts to diversify into e-cigarettes and cannabis have not yielded positive results, with significant investments in Juul and Cronos Group leading to substantial losses [7][8]. - The company's market cap for Cronos Group has fallen below $1 billion, indicating poor performance in its cannabis investment [8]. Market Position - Despite the appealing dividend yield, the company's revenue struggles due to declining smoking rates and failed business ventures may deter investors [12][13]. - The stock's low valuation may not be enough to attract investors unless there is a turnaround in business conditions [11][13].