American Express Earnings Conference Call Q4'25 JANUARY 30, 2026 Business Highlights Refer to Slide 31 for notes. 2 • FY 2025 revenue growth of 10%, and EPS of $15.38, up 15% YoY adjusted for the prior year gain on sale from Accertify(1) • FY 2026 guidance of revenue growth of 9% - 10%, and EPS of $17.30 - $17.90(2) • Plan to increase quarterly dividend per common share by 16% to $0.95 • Signed a multi-year extension of our British Airways Cobrand Card partnership • Advanced Gen AI and agentic commerce init ...

Core Insights - American Express reported steady growth in spending for its fourth quarter, driven by increased retail and travel purchases by cardholders [1] Group 1 - The company experienced growth in consumer spending, indicating a positive trend in customer engagement and economic activity [1] - Cardholders are increasingly leaning into retail and travel purchases, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior towards these sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit-card company reported quarterly earnings that slightly missed Wall Street expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company's quarterly earnings were below analysts' forecasts, indicating potential challenges in meeting market expectations [1]

Financial Performance - Total non-interest revenues for Q4'25 reached $14,458 million, a 10% increase year-over-year from $13,141 million in Q4'24[1] - Net income for Q4'25 was $2,462 million, reflecting a 13% increase compared to $2,170 million in Q4'24[1] - Total revenues net of interest expense after provisions for credit losses were $17,566 million, up 11% from $15,887 million in Q4'24[1] - Basic earnings per share for Q4'25 was $3.53, a 16% increase from $3.04 in Q4'24[1] - Total revenues net of interest expense for FY'25 were $16,926 million, reflecting a 7% growth from $15,859 million in FY'24[18] - Net income attributable to common shareholders for Q4'25 was $10,701 million, compared to $9,995 million in Q4'24, marking a 7% increase[27] Assets and Loans - Total assets increased to $300,052 million in Q4'25, an 11% rise from $271,461 million in Q4'24[2] - Card Member loans, less reserves, grew to $145,923 million, a 9% increase from $133,995 million in Q4'24[2] - Total Card Member loans rose to $213.9 billion, a 7% increase from $199.1 billion in Q4'24[9] - Total loans for Q4'25 reached $100,171 million, an 8% increase from $92,632 million in Q4'24[15] - Total loans for International Card Services increased by 20% year-over-year to $20,828 million in Q4'25 from $17,395 million in Q4'24[21] Expenses and Provisions - Total expenses for Q4'25 amounted to $14,476 million, a 10% increase from $13,131 million in Q4'24[1] - Total provisions for credit losses decreased by 1% year-over-year to $773 million in Q4'25 from $784 million in Q4'24[15] - Total provisions for credit losses in Q4'25 were $359 million, a 15% increase from $311 million in Q4'24[18] - Total provisions for credit losses in Q4'25 were $70 million, significantly higher than the $6 million in Q4'24, indicating a 1,066% increase[24] - Operating expenses for Q4'25 totaled $1,085 million, a 17% increase from $927 million in Q4'24[24] Revenue Streams - Non-interest revenues for Q4'25 reached $5,904 million, an 11% increase from $5,314 million in Q4'24[15] - Non-interest revenues for International Card Services in Q4'25 were $3,192 million, a 17% increase from $2,725 million in Q4'24[21] - Non-interest revenues for Q4'25 reached $1,858 million, an increase of 8% compared to Q4'24's $1,723 million[22] Card Member Metrics - Average proprietary basic Card Member spending increased to $6,696, up 5% from $6,378 in Q4'24[6] - Average proprietary basic Card Member spending increased by 3% year-over-year to $5,574 in Q4'25 from $5,387 in Q4'24[15] - Average proprietary basic Card Member spending increased to $9,151 in Q4'25, a 4% rise from $8,804 in Q4'24[18] - Proprietary new cards acquired totaled 2.9 million in Q4'25, representing a 12.5% year-over-year growth[7] Network and Billed Business - Network volumes increased to $506.2 billion in Q4'25, up 9% year-over-year from $464.0 billion in Q4'24[6] - Billed business reached $445.1 billion in Q4'25, reflecting a 9% increase compared to $408.4 billion in Q4'24[6] - Billed business for Q4'25 was $189.2 billion, a 9% increase from $174.0 billion in Q4'24[15] - Billed business for Q4'25 was $140.9 billion, up 4% from $136.0 billion in Q4'24[18] - The company reported a total of 1,897 million in network volumes for FY'25, a 7% increase from FY'24's $1,764.8 million[24] Tax and Equity - The effective tax rate for Q4'25 was 20.3%, compared to 21.3% in Q4'24[1] - Return on average equity for Q4'25 was 33.9%, slightly down from 34.6% in Q4'24[2] - Return on average equity (ROE) for Q4'25 was 33.9%, down from 35.9% in Q4'24[26] - Average shareholders' equity for Q4'25 was $31,934 million, up from $29,266 million in Q4'24[27] Other Metrics - The net write-off rate for Card Member loans was 2.3% in Q4'25, slightly up from 2.2% in Q4'24[9] - The net write-off rate for principal, interest, and fees was 2.6% in Q4'25, compared to 2.4% in Q4'24[15] - Credit loss reserves for Card Member loans stood at 3.9% of total loans, down from 4.1% in Q4'24[9] - Total other loans increased to $10.9 billion, an 18% rise from $9.2 billion in Q4'24[11] - The average fee per card increased to $122 in Q4'25, up 13% from $108 in Q4'24[6]

Core Viewpoint - MasterCard demonstrates strong financial performance and growth potential, supported by positive market sentiment and strategic focus on value-added services [2][3][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, MasterCard reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.76, surpassing market expectations of $4.22 to $4.25 [2] - The company achieved an 18% year-over-year increase in net revenue, totaling $8.8 billion [3] - Gross dollar volume rose by 7% to $2.8 trillion, while cross-border volume increased by 14%, indicating robust consumer spending and travel demand [3] Strategic Focus - MasterCard's emphasis on value-added services, including cybersecurity, contributed to a 26% revenue increase in the quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth acceleration [4] - These services now account for approximately 44% of total net revenue, highlighting the company's strategy to diversify revenue streams [4] Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a "Buy" rating for MasterCard, raising the price target from $710 to $739, reflecting strong confidence in the company's growth trajectory [3] - The stock price increased by 4.29%, equivalent to a $22.36 rise, with a trading range between $520.11 and $544.20 [5] - MasterCard's market capitalization is estimated at around $491.54 billion, reinforcing its strong position in the financial services industry [5]

Group 1 - Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) is considered one of the best inexpensive stocks to buy currently, with a price target adjustment from Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia to $280 from $294 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - The acquisition of Brex is seen as a strategic move to complement and expand Capital One's small business card offerings, specifically the Spark card [1][3] - In Q4 2025, Capital One reported a net income of $2.1 billion and quarterly revenue of $15.5 billion, marking a 52.92% year-over-year increase, largely attributed to the Discover acquisition which boosted domestic card revenue by 58% [3] Group 2 - Following the Discover acquisition, there is speculation that Capital One's valuation multiple could approach that of American Express, as both companies utilize a three-party network model [2] - The firm has adjusted its 2025/26 EPS forecasts downward to reflect increased operating expenses [2]

Core Insights - Investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported strong earnings, particularly in trading and investment banking fees, indicating a positive trend in the banking sector [1][2] - The Big Four banks (JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Bank of America) exceeded earnings expectations, with notable growth in interest income and equities trading revenue [2][3] - The Trump administration's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% raises concerns about its practicality and potential negative impacts on credit card companies and consumer spending [6][10] Banking Sector Performance - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley saw significant gains in their trading units and investment banking fees, with stock prices rising by 4% and 5% respectively [1] - The Big Four banks reported strong earnings, with Bank of America's net interest margin increasing by 11 basis points year over year and an expected 5-7% growth in net interest income [2][3] - Equities trading revenue for Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase rose by 23% and 40% respectively, benefiting from market volatility [2][3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence appears stronger than anticipated, with deposit and loan growth exceeding expectations; Bank of America's loan portfolio grew by 8% year over year [2][3] - Lower than expected loan loss provisions across banks indicate that loans are performing well, suggesting a healthier consumer credit environment [2] Investment Banking Trends - The current environment of strong investment banking activity is seen as a reflection of a robust economy, but there are concerns about the quality of companies going public and potential risks in M&A activities [3][4] - Investors are advised to exercise discretion when evaluating IPOs and M&A deals, as some companies may take advantage of favorable conditions to pursue risky transactions [3][4] Credit Card Industry Implications - The proposed cap on credit card interest rates could lead to credit card companies dropping higher-risk consumers, potentially reducing access to credit for those who need it most [6][10] - Analysts suggest that the cap could eliminate a year of profits for credit card companies, fundamentally altering the financial structure of the industry [9][10] - Companies like Klarna, which offer alternative credit solutions, may benefit from a shift in consumer behavior if credit card rates are capped [9][10] Stocks on the Radar - Five Below is highlighted for its strong performance and growth potential, with management successfully raising prices despite inflation concerns [13][14] - Capital One is noted for its strong profitability and potential growth following its merger with Discover, despite recent stock price fluctuations due to regulatory concerns [16] - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste is recognized for its lucrative airport operations in Mexico, benefiting from tourism and a regulated business model [17]

Core Insights - American Express Company (AXP) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, 2026, with earnings estimated at $3.55 per share and revenues at $18.82 billion [1][6] Earnings Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has seen one upward revision and two downward movements in the past month, indicating a year-over-year increase of 16.8% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 9.6% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $72.06 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year rise, while the EPS estimate is $15.40, indicating a 15.4% growth [4] Performance History - American Express has exceeded consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4% [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for American Express, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - A rise in network volumes is expected, attributed to resilient consumer spending among AXP's premium customer base, with an anticipated growth of 8.3% in network volumes [6][7] - Discount revenues are projected to grow by 7.1% year-over-year, benefiting from increased network volumes [8] - Billed businesses in U.S. Consumer Services and Commercial Services are expected to grow by 7.4% and 3% year-over-year, respectively [8] - Cards-in-force are likely to increase by 4.7% year-over-year, with Average Card Member loans expected to rise by 8% [9] - Net interest income is projected to increase by 11.7% year-over-year due to higher loan receivables [10] Cost Considerations - Client engagement costs are anticipated to rise due to increased Card Member spending and higher usage of travel and lifestyle benefits [11] - Pre-tax income from Commercial Services is expected to decline by 6.9% year-over-year [11]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap by President Trump is being questioned by Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan, who believes it could negatively impact consumer spending and credit availability [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Spending and Credit Availability - Moynihan stated that implementing the cap would slow down consumer spending and limit credit availability, which may not align with the intended goals of the proposal [2][3]. - The banking industry argues that the cap would lead to a reduction in credit access, forcing consumers to seek less reliable and more expensive alternatives, such as payday loans [4]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed Moynihan's concerns, suggesting that the cap could remove credit access for 80% of Americans, who rely on it as backup [5]. - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser expressed skepticism about Congress supporting the 10% cap, indicating a broader industry consensus on the potential negative consequences of the proposal [5][6]. Group 3: Importance of Credit in the Labor Economy - Research indicates that a significant portion of low-wage workers, specifically those earning less than $25 an hour, rely heavily on credit, accounting for about 15% of U.S. consumer spending [6]. - The PYMNTS Intelligence report highlighted that 33.8% of workers in this low-wage cohort typically carry a revolving credit balance, compared to under 25% for the larger population [7].

Market Overview - Stock futures are higher, indicating a positive start for the trading day following a positive session for the three major averages [1] Federal Reserve and Political Developments - The Supreme Court showed skepticism towards the Trump administration's argument regarding the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, suggesting her position may be secure [2] - Justice Brett Kavanaugh expressed concerns that allowing the president to fire Fed governors without judicial review could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [3] Corporate Earnings and Projections - Procter & Gamble reported a modest earnings beat but missed revenue expectations, leading to a 1.5% decline in shares during premarket trading [7] - The company experienced a net income decrease compared to the previous year, despite a 1% increase in net sales, and lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook due to higher restructuring charges [8] - Intel's stock surged over 11% ahead of its earnings report, reaching its highest level since early 2022 [11] Industry Insights - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticized President Trump's proposal for a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates, labeling it an "economic disaster" [4] - Dimon also expressed discontent with Trump's immigration reform efforts, seeking more details on the implications of Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids [5] Technology and AI Developments - YouTube CEO Neal Mohan emphasized the platform's commitment to reducing "AI slop" and managing AI-generated content, highlighting the challenges in distinguishing real content from AI-generated material [9][10]