Core Insights - Etsy is a leading two-sided marketplace with approximately 95 million active buyers and over 100 million listings from more than 8 million active sellers, focusing on unique creative and handmade goods [1] - The company is projected to generate $12 billion in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for the year, with adjusted EBITDA margins of 26% and free cash flow of $600 million [2] Company Overview - Josh Silverman has been the CEO of Etsy since May 2017, with a background that includes roles at American Express, Skype, shopping.com, and co-founding Evite [2] - Lanny Baker, the CFO, joined Etsy earlier this year and has held previous positions at Eventbrite, Yelp, ZipRealty, and Monster Worldwide [2] Market Outlook - The company is addressing macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty, with a focus on consumer confidence and expectations for stable to slightly improved GMS trends in Q2 compared to a negative 6% in Q1 [6]

Summary of Etsy (ETSY) FY Conference Call - May 13, 2025 Company Overview - Etsy is a leading two-sided marketplace with approximately 95 million active buyers and over 100 million listings from more than 8 million active sellers, primarily focused on unique, creative, and handmade goods [2][2] - Estimated to generate $12 billion in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for the year, with 26% adjusted EBITDA margins and $600 million in free cash flow [2][2] Macro Environment and Consumer Trends - The macro environment remains volatile, but Etsy has not observed significant changes in consumer spending despite market fluctuations [6][6] - Etsy experienced substantial growth during the pandemic, with GMS increasing from $4.9 billion pre-pandemic to nearly $11 billion in 2024 [5][5] - The company has shown resilience against supply shocks and inflation, with sellers not passing on price increases as seen in other markets [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce market is highly competitive, with major players like Amazon and Walmart actively participating [11][11] - Etsy is focusing on local sellers to mitigate tariff impacts, with over 90% of supplies sourced domestically [16][16][20][20] - The advertising market remains strong, and Etsy is enhancing its marketing technology to improve performance [12][12] Growth Strategies - Etsy is recalibrating its strategy to balance near-term conversions with long-term initiatives, particularly focusing on app development and personalized experiences [24][24][41][41] - The company has shifted resources to improve the app experience, with 44.5% of GMS now coming from app purchases [38][38] - Emphasis on quality and personalization through a new search engine architecture that prioritizes customer experience [30][30] Advertising and Revenue Growth - Etsy has seen growth in revenue despite GMS declines, primarily through Etsy Payments and Etsy Ads, which enhance seller profitability [57][57][58][58] - The company is exploring off-site ads as a cooperative advertising program to further drive sales for sellers [62][62] Financial Performance and Profitability - Etsy has maintained a strong take rate and gross margins, with expectations for continued profitability in 2025 [65][65][76][76] - The divestiture of Reverb is expected to improve overall profit margins for Etsy [71][71][73][73] Future Outlook - Etsy's unique marketplace model positions it as a valuable alternative in a consolidating e-commerce landscape [78][78] - The company is optimistic about its growth potential, leveraging its distinct offerings to attract consumers seeking alternatives to traditional e-commerce [78][78]

Group 1 - The US and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on each other's goods for 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [3][4] - Chery Automobile's marketing executive criticized Geely's new car, leading to disciplinary action against the involved personnel [3][4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) announced a donation of 4.05 million shares, valued at over 1 billion yuan, to Fudan University [6] Group 2 - Apple has not confirmed any price reductions for the iPhone 16 series despite media reports suggesting significant price cuts [8][9] - A consumer reported finding a foreign object in a rice dumpling from Laiyifen, prompting the company to initiate a full investigation and product recall [9] - Toyota denied rumors of acquiring Neta Auto, stating that they have no knowledge of such discussions [11] Group 3 - Nissans plans to lay off an additional 10,000 employees, bringing the total layoffs to approximately 20,000, which is about 15% of its workforce [22] - Tesla has applied for the "TESLA OPTIMUS" trademark as it prepares for the production of its humanoid robot [22] - SoftBank's $100 billion investment plan in AI infrastructure has been delayed due to tariff concerns and economic risks [23] Group 4 - Kimi announced a collaboration with Xiaohongshu to enhance AI capabilities, allowing users to generate notes directly from conversations [23] - Over 250 CEOs in the US have called for AI and computer science to be included in K-12 education as a core curriculum [23] - Meituan led a multi-million A round investment in Variable Robotics, which aims to accelerate the development of intelligent robotics [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify and Etsy are positioned as strong players in the e-commerce industry, with both companies expected to benefit from significant market growth projected to reach $21.22 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15.8% from 2025 to 2030 [2] Group 1: Shopify (SHOP) - Shopify's Merchant Solutions generated $1.74 billion in revenue in Q1 2025, accounting for 73.7% of total revenues, driven by user-friendly tools like Shop Pay and Shopify Pay Instalments [3][5] - Shop Pay processed $22 billion in Gross Merchandise Value in Q1 2025, reflecting a 57% year-over-year increase, with adoption by major brands enhancing Shopify's portfolio [4] - Shopify is investing in AI-driven tools to improve customer engagement and streamline operations, with partnerships including TikTok, Amazon, and PayPal expected to expand its merchant base [5] Group 2: Etsy (ETSY) - Etsy is leveraging AI for enhanced personalization and has seen strong mobile app performance, with the app accounting for 44.5% of total Gross Merchandise Sales in Q1 2025 [6][7] - The introduction of an AI-powered discovery feature in April 2025 allows shoppers to browse curated collections, enhancing the shopping experience [8] - Etsy's subsidiary, Depop, is contributing significantly to growth, particularly in the U.S. market, with strong performance in gifting categories during seasonal events [10] Group 3: Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Shopify and Etsy shares have declined by 13.7% and 11.3%, respectively, due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [12] - Shopify shares are currently overvalued with a Value Score of F, while Etsy shares are considered cheap with a Value Score of B, trading at 10.34X and 1.75X forward Price/Sales, respectively [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify's 2025 earnings is $1.44 per share, indicating a 10.77% year-over-year increase, while Etsy's estimate is $1.77 per share, reflecting a 24.68% year-over-year decline [17]

The logo of Shopify is seen outside its headquarters in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, September 28, 2018.Shares of Shopify dipped more than 5% in early trading on Thursday after the company posted mixed first-quarter results and issued soft guidance for the current period.Here's how the company did:Revenue: $2.36 billion vs. $2.33 billion expected by LSEGEarnings per share: 39 cents adjusted vs. 26 cents expected by LSEGFor the second quarter, Shopify said it expects gross profit to grow at a high-teens percenta ...

Core Insights - The secondhand industry is facing challenges due to President Trump's tariffs, but companies like eBay and Etsy show resilience [1][2] Company Performance - eBay and Etsy reported Q1 2025 earnings, addressing tariff impacts; eBay's CEO noted that only about 5% of their gross merchandise value (GMV) comes from China, while Etsy's CFO stated that just over 1% of gross merchandise sales (GMS) are from U.S. imports from China [2][3] - Etsy experienced a 3.4% year-over-year decline in active buyers, totaling 88.5 million, and an 8.9% decline in GMS to $2.3 billion [7][8] - eBay reported a GMV growth to $18.8 billion and a revenue increase of over 1% to $2.58 billion, benefiting from price-conscious shoppers opting for used and refurbished goods [10][11] Market Dynamics - Sellers on eBay and Etsy primarily source products locally, which provides a competitive advantage over import-reliant rivals like Temu and Shein [2][6] - Etsy's focus on handcrafted and vintage goods may make it more vulnerable to economic uncertainty, as consumer spending is hesitant [7] - eBay has seen increased spending from customers looking to avoid tariffs, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [10][11] Strategic Positioning - Etsy's ownership of Depop, a secondhand fashion platform, continues to perform well despite economic challenges, achieving record-high GMS since its acquisition in 2021 [8] - eBay's strategy of focusing on used and refurbished goods has positioned it favorably in the current market environment [10]

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Changes - The cancellation of the de minimis tax exemption for low-value packages from China has resulted in tariffs as high as 145%, leading many retailers to halt shipments to the U.S. market [1][3][5] - Retailers are increasing prices to cope with the new tariffs, which may exacerbate inflationary pressures on U.S. consumers already facing high living costs [1][4][5] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is now close to 23%, the highest in over a century, significantly impacting consumer and business confidence [4][5] Group 2: Retailer Responses - Major retailers, including Amazon, have reported that the new tariffs will have a significant negative impact on their earnings, with Amazon's profit guidance falling short of analyst expectations by as much as 27% [2][9][10] - Smaller retailers are withdrawing from the U.S. market due to the prohibitive costs associated with the new tariffs, which are expected to lead to price increases for essential goods [3][7] - Companies like Space NK and Understance have already suspended U.S. shipments to avoid unexpected costs due to the new tariff regime [3][7] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the combination of high tariffs and ongoing inflation could lead to a significant downturn in consumer demand, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession [5][6] - The impact of tariffs is expected to ripple through various sectors, including e-commerce and advertising, as companies like Snap Inc. have indicated that they are facing macroeconomic headwinds due to these changes [6][9] - The overall economic environment is becoming increasingly challenging for retailers reliant on Chinese imports, with many predicting a slowdown in global economic growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Etsy reported quarterly earnings of $0.46 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.50 per share, representing an earnings surprise of -8% [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $651.18 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.33% and showing a year-over-year increase from $645.95 million [2]. - Over the last four quarters, Etsy has surpassed consensus revenue estimates three times [2]. Stock Performance - Etsy shares have declined approximately 12.8% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of -5.5% for the S&P 500 [3]. - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.52 on revenues of $638.28 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.60 on revenues of $2.77 billion [7]. Industry Outlook - The Internet - Commerce industry, to which Etsy belongs, is currently ranked in the top 25% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [8]. - Empirical research suggests a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact Etsy's stock performance [5]. Future Expectations - The estimate revisions trend for Etsy is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6]. - The upcoming earnings call will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of the stock's price movement based on management's commentary [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, consolidated GMS was $2.8 billion, down approximately 6.5% year over year, with Etsy Marketplace GMS down 8.9% [26][25] - Consolidated revenue increased by approximately 1% year over year to $651 million, despite the GMS decline [26][27] - Adjusted EBITDA was $171 million for Q1, representing a 26.3% margin, up 30 basis points year over year [27][28] - Consolidated take rate improved to 23.3%, an increase of 170 basis points over the 21.6% take rate reported in the same period last year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS decreased by 8.9%, while Depop continued to deliver strong growth, benefiting consolidated results [26][27] - Services revenue grew 7.7% year over year, driven by strong growth in on-site ads revenue at both Etsy and Depop [27] - The number of reactivated buyers increased by over 6 million in Q1, indicating progress in buyer engagement strategies [45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US buyer GMS represented about 75% of first quarter Etsy Marketplace GMS, with both US and non-US buyer GMS performing similarly to Q4 of the previous year [30] - Gifting GMS outperformed non-gifting GMS during the quarter, supported by product and marketing efforts [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reigniting core Etsy marketplace growth through a balanced portfolio of product investments aimed at improving GMS and customer experience [7][20] - There is an emphasis on enhancing personalization and leveraging AI to improve buyer engagement and frequency [10][12] - The company is adapting to macroeconomic challenges while maintaining a strong financial foundation and focusing on unique seller offerings [5][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macroeconomic backdrop but expressed confidence in the company's ability to improve growth through product and marketing strategies [44][46] - The outlook for Q2 anticipates a decline in consolidated GMS similar to Q1, with expectations for improved performance as product and marketing strategies take effect [37][38] Other Important Information - The company announced the sale of Reverb for $105 million, which will allow for a greater focus on driving growth for Etsy and Depop [25][19] - The company has established a task force to address the impacts of global tariff regulations on its operations [17][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide an update on the full year outlook and the second quarter EBITDA margin guide? - Management indicated that the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, but they are encouraged by product and marketing improvements that could drive growth throughout the year [44][46] Question: What is next on the app product roadmap? - The company is focused on increasing the app's share of GMS, which reached 44.5% in Q1, and is working on enhancing personalized browsing experiences [53][55] Question: Is there concern that the decline in active sellers is driving the decline in active buyers? - Management clarified that the decline in active sellers is intentional due to the introduction of a new shop setup fee, which has led to a healthier seller base [62][63] Question: Can you discuss the take rate guidance for Q2? - Management explained that the take rate is expected to remain flat due to lapping previous price-related increments that had benefited the take rate [74] Question: What are the gross margin headwinds from free shipping and machine learning costs? - Management acknowledged that higher processing costs and investments in machine learning and search development could create some gross margin headwinds, but these are necessary for product experience [79][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, consolidated GMS was $2.8 billion, down approximately 6.5% year over year, with FX representing an 80 basis point headwind [26] - Consolidated revenue increased by approximately 1% year over year to $651 million, despite a decline in GMS [26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $171 million for Q1, representing a 26.3% margin, up 30 basis points year over year [27] - Consolidated take rate improved to 23.3%, an increase of 170 basis points over the 21.6% take rate reported in the same period last year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS was down 8.9% year over year, while Depop continued to deliver strong growth in buyers, sellers, and GMS [26][30] - Marketplace revenue decreased 1.8% year over year, reflecting the decline in GMS, partially offset by increases in payments revenue [27] - Services revenue grew 7.7% year over year, with strong growth in on-site ads revenue at both Etsy and Depop [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - US buyer GMS represented about 75% of first quarter Etsy Marketplace GMS, with both US and non-US buyer GMS performing similarly to Q4 of last year [30] - Gifting GMS outperformed non-gifting GMS during the quarter, benefiting from product and marketing efforts [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reigniting core Etsy marketplace growth through a balanced portfolio of product investments aimed at improving GMS and customer experience [6][19] - There is an emphasis on enhancing the mobile app experience, with the app reaching an all-time high of 44.5% of total Etsy Marketplace GMS [9] - The company is leveraging AI and machine learning to create personalized shopping experiences and improve customer engagement [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macroeconomic backdrop but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and improve growth through product and marketing strategies [44][45] - The outlook for Q2 anticipates a decline in consolidated GMS similar to Q1, but management remains optimistic about future growth driven by ongoing product and marketing initiatives [36][45] Other Important Information - The company announced the sale of Reverb for $105 million, which is expected to close in the coming months [24] - A new shop setup fee of $29 for new sellers was introduced, which management believes will lead to a healthier seller environment [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on full year outlook and second quarter EBITDA margin guidance - Management indicated that the macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, but they are encouraged by product and marketing improvements that could drive growth throughout the year [44][45] Question: Next steps for the app product roadmap - The app is expected to continue growing as a percentage of GMS, with ongoing efforts to enhance the browsing experience and personalization [52][54] Question: Concerns about the decline in active sellers impacting active buyers - Management clarified that the decline in active sellers is intentional and aimed at improving the quality of sellers on the platform, and they do not see a direct correlation with active buyer decline [61][62] Question: Take rate guidance for Q2 - Management explained that the take rate is expected to remain flat due to lapping previous price-related increments and improvements in Etsy Ads [70][71] Question: Gross margin headwinds from free shipping and ML costs - Management acknowledged that higher processing costs and machine learning expenses could create some gross margin headwinds, but they are necessary for enhancing the product experience [75][76] Question: Opportunities to leverage domestic sourcing amid rising prices - Management is focusing on promoting domestic sellers and enhancing the value proposition of Etsy in light of potential price increases from competitors [90]