Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $5158 million, a decrease of 4% compared to Q3 2025, but an increase of 14% compared to Q4 2024[3] - Scores revenue in Q4 2025 reached $3116 million, down 4% from Q3 2025, but up 25% year-over-year[3] - Software revenue in Q4 2025 was $2042 million, a decrease of 4% compared to Q3 2025, and flat compared to Q4 2024[3] - Software ARR increased to $7473 million, a 1% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 4% increase year-over-year[3] - ACV Bookings for software reached $327 million, a 22% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 48% increase year-over-year[3] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $774, a decrease of 10% quarter-over-quarter, but an increase of 18% year-over-year[3] - Adjusted EBITDA was $2866 million, down 8% quarter-over-quarter, but up 18% year-over-year[3] - Full year revenues reached $235 billion[26] Segment Performance - Scores operating income was $2728 million in Q4 2025, a decrease of 4% quarter-over-quarter, but an increase of 24% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 88%[25] - Software operating income was $557 million in Q4 2025, an 18% decrease both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with an operating margin of 27%[25] Balance Sheet - Cash and investments decreased to $1888 million, a 21% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 4% decrease year-over-year[24] - Total assets increased to $18681 billion, a 0% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 9% increase year-over-year[24]

Financial Performance - FICO reported fourth quarter fiscal 2025 revenue of $516 million, a 14% increase from $454 million in the prior year[4] - Net income for the quarter was $155 million, or $6.42 per share, compared to $135.7 million, or $5.44 per share, in the prior year[2] - Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was $187 million, with a non-GAAP EPS of $7.74, up from $6.54 in the prior year[3] - Scores revenues increased by 25% to $311.6 million, driven by a 29% rise in B2B revenue and an 8% increase in B2C revenue[4] - Software revenues remained flat at $204.2 million, with a 4% year-over-year increase in Software Annual Recurring Revenue[4] - GAAP net income for Q4 2025 was $155,014,000, an increase from $135,691,000 in Q4 2024, representing a growth of 14.3%[16] - Non-GAAP net income for Q4 2025 reached $186,953,000, compared to $163,202,000 in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.5%[16] - GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 was $6.42, up from $5.44 in Q4 2024, marking a 18% increase[16] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS for Q4 2025 was $7.74, compared to $6.54 in Q4 2024, indicating a growth of 18.4%[16] - Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $210,844,000, slightly down from $219,355,000 in Q4 2024, a decrease of 2.3%[16] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the year ended September 30, 2025, was $778,807,000, an increase from $632,964,000 in 2024, representing a growth of 23%[16] Guidance and Projections - FICO provided fiscal 2026 guidance with expected revenues of $2.35 billion and GAAP net income of $795 million[5] - For fiscal 2026, GAAP net income is projected to be $795,000,000, with a non-GAAP net income guidance of $907,000,000[20] - GAAP diluted EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is set at $33.47, while non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be $38.17[20] - Share-based compensation expense for fiscal 2026 is estimated at $166,000,000, which will impact both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings[20] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company reported a total assets increase to $1.87 billion from $1.72 billion year-over-year[10] - Total liabilities rose to $3.61 billion, up from $2.68 billion in the prior year[10] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $134.1 million from $150.7 million year-over-year[14] - The company incurred a pre-tax restructuring charge of $10.9 million, impacting earnings by $0.34 per share after tax[2] Non-GAAP Financial Measures - The company emphasizes the use of non-GAAP financial measures for better transparency and operational decision-making, excluding certain non-recurring items[21]

Core Insights - FICO reported a net income of $155.0 million for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, translating to $6.42 per share, an increase from $135.7 million or $5.44 per share in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The fourth quarter results included a pre-tax restructuring charge of $10.9 million, which equates to $0.34 per share after tax [1] - Net cash provided by operating activities was not detailed in the provided text, indicating a focus on net income and restructuring impacts [1]

Earnings Reports & Market Analysis - This week features earnings reports from Palantir, Uber, AMD, Spotify, Shopify, DoorDash, FICO, Texas Roadhouse, and Duolingo [3] - Tom Lee believes the market will continue upwards aggressively, citing historical precedence, negative market sentiment, falling inflation, and record profitability [4][84][85][87][89][90][92] Palantir Analysis - Palantir's revenue growth is accelerating, driven by a strong increase in US customer count from 161 to 485 [8][9][10] - Palantir's free cash flow has increased from less than $200 million in 2022 to $17 billion in the trailing 12 months [10][11] - Palantir's valuation is extremely high, with a forward price to sales ratio of about 90, making it reliant on fast growth [12][13][14][15][17] Company Specific Insights - Shopify is expanding into AI-driven commerce and targeting larger enterprise merchants, with a focus on merchant solutions, payments, and Shop Pay [22][23][24] - Uber's CEO is bullish on autonomous vehicles, but partnerships beyond Waymo are largely on paper, and Tesla could pose a competitive threat [29][30][32][33][35] - Spotify is experiencing continued monthly active user growth, leveraging its refined product, user interface, and network effects to compete with larger competitors, aiming for nearly 700 million active users and embracing video and AI tools [42][43][45][46][47] - AMD is a serious competitor in the AI race, with deals with OpenAI, but trades at a high valuation with a forward price to earnings of 46 and free cash flow yield below 1% [48][49] - Duolingo aims to be the dominant digital learning app, expanding beyond language learning into chess, math, and music, with 477 million daily active users and over 109 million paid users [66][67][68][71][65][66] - Texas Roadhouse is a top-tier restaurant with a good value proposition, but its relatively small size makes it a riskier holding compared to tech companies [78][81][82][83] OpenAI & Amazon - Amazon has announced a $38 billion multi-year partnership with OpenAI to run and scale its AI workloads in Amazon Web Services [96] - Sam Altman's defensive reaction to a question about OpenAI's revenue versus spending commitments was deemed a "fail of the week" [102][103][117]

Core Insights - High-rolling investors are taking a bearish position on Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO), indicating potential privileged information influencing their trades [1] - The sentiment among major traders is mixed, with 33% bullish and 58% bearish, highlighting a significant divergence in market outlook [2] - The projected price targets for Fair Isaac range from $1300.0 to $1820.0, suggesting a focus on a specific price window by large players [3][4] Options Activity - A total of 12 options trades were identified for Fair Isaac, with one put trade valued at $25,350 and 11 call trades totaling $511,463, indicating a notable interest in options trading [1][2] - The options trading data reveals a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, with specific trades indicating varying levels of confidence in the stock's future performance [9] Company Overview - Fair Isaac Corporation, founded in 1956, is a leading applied analytics company known for its FICO credit scores, which are widely used to assess consumer creditworthiness [10] - The company's primary revenue comes from its US-centric credit scores business, which includes both business-to-business and business-to-consumer services, alongside software sales to financial institutions [10] Market Status - Analysts have issued ratings for Fair Isaac, with a consensus target price of $2250.0, while individual analysts have varying ratings, including an Overweight rating with a target of $2400 and a downgrade to Buy with a target of $1950 [12][13] - The current trading volume for Fair Isaac is 196,343, with the stock price at $1585.36, reflecting a neutral RSI status [15]

Core Insights - Analysts project Fair Isaac (FICO) will report quarterly earnings of $7.34 per share, a 12.2% increase year over year, with revenues expected to reach $511.78 million, reflecting a 12.8% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 2.7% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Scores' at $303.78 million, a 21.9% year-over-year increase [5] - 'Revenues- Software' is projected at $210.53 million, reflecting a 2.9% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Professional services' is expected to be $21.87 million, indicating a 4.5% decrease year over year [5] - 'Revenues- Scores- Business-to-consumer' is estimated at $57.73 million, a 10.9% increase from the prior year [5] - 'Revenues- On-premises and SaaS software' is projected at $189.13 million, a 4.1% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Scores- Business-to-business' is expected to reach $247.78 million, a 25.7% increase year over year [6] Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Estimates - 'ARR - Platform' is projected to be $267.65 million, up from $227.00 million in the same quarter last year [6] - 'ARR - Total' is expected to reach $761.69 million, compared to $721.20 million reported in the same quarter last year [7] - 'ARR - Non-Platform' is estimated at $494.05 million, slightly down from $494.20 million in the previous year [7] Stock Performance - Fair Isaac shares have decreased by 11.2% in the past month, contrasting with a 2.1% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [7] - With a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), FICO is anticipated to outperform the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Insights - The FICO survey indicates that fraud protection is a top priority for UK consumers when selecting financial service providers, with 70% ranking it among their top three considerations and 35% identifying it as their number one concern [1][2][6]. Consumer Preferences - Banking-related fraud, including stolen cards and identity theft, is the primary concern for consumers, overshadowing traditional scams like cash theft [2]. - There is a strong preference for biometric authentication methods, with 39% of respondents favoring fingerprints and 56% rating biometric security as excellent [6][4]. Impact on Banking Strategy - The fraud department is viewed as a critical asset for banks, not just a cost center, as it plays a vital role in attracting new customers and building trust [3][7]. - Banks that effectively balance strong fraud defenses with a smooth digital experience are likely to gain customer loyalty [3]. Customer Expectations - Half of the respondents expect to open a personal account in under 30 minutes, indicating a low tolerance for delays in the verification process [3][6]. - 18% of consumers abandon the account opening process if identity verification is perceived as too time-consuming [6]. Enterprise Fraud Strategy - Financial institutions are encouraged to adopt an enterprise fraud strategy that integrates data across various channels and prioritizes customer experience, which can help reduce fraud losses and enhance customer satisfaction [7].

Core Insights - The analysis indicates heightened financial stress among cardholders due to a combination of accelerating balance growth, declining payment rates, and increasing overlimit usage [1][7]. Group 1: Credit Card Performance - Average active balances have reached the highest level, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month to £1,915, and are 4.9% higher year-on-year [7]. - The percentage of total balance paid has dropped to 34.3%, reflecting a 1.6% decrease month-on-month and a 6.2% decrease year-on-year [7]. - Spending rose to an average of £815 in August, marking a 1.5% increase month-on-month but a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [7]. Group 2: Missed Payments and Financial Distress - The percentage of customers missing one payment decreased by 3.5% month-on-month, with a significant 16% decrease year-on-year, while the average balance for these accounts increased by 0.5% month-on-month to £2,400 [4]. - Accounts with two missed payments saw a 4.2% monthly increase in the percentage of customers, with an average balance rising by 0.6% to £2,895, remaining 6.0% higher than the previous year [5]. - The average balance for accounts with three missed payments fell by 1.1% month-on-month to £3,265 but is still 7.4% higher than last year, indicating persistent elevated balances among the most delinquent customers [6]. Group 3: Overlimit Accounts - There was a 5.8% increase in overlimit accounts month-on-month, with average credit limits remaining virtually unchanged at £5,880 [6][7]. - The trend of increasing overlimit usage suggests a growing need for credit limit management and early-stage collection strategies to prevent further balance escalation [8].

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) experienced significant stock volatility, initially rising over 15% before a nearly 10% sell-off, primarily due to competitive pressures in the mortgage credit scoring market [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Reaction - The launch of Fair Isaac's Mortgage Direct License Program allows lenders to access credit scores directly from FICO, bypassing traditional credit bureaus [2][4]. - The subsequent drop in FICO's stock was influenced by Equifax's introduction of a similar product targeting mortgage lenders, leading to investor confusion [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Fair Isaac's Mortgage Direct License reduces reliance on intermediaries, lowering costs and enhancing lender control over borrower risk assessment [4]. - Despite Equifax's competitive move, FICO maintains a strong market position, with 85% to 90% market share in mortgage credit scoring, reinforcing its pricing power and institutional trust [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - FICO boasts an over 80% gross profit margin, significantly higher than Equifax's 56%, indicating stronger earnings power and customer relationships [8][9]. - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.3x, reflecting market confidence in FICO's sustainable advantages compared to Equifax's 46.9x [11]. Group 4: Analyst Sentiment and Institutional Support - Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $2,130 for FICO, suggesting a 25.7% upside potential from current levels, with some analysts projecting targets as high as $2,400 [10][12]. - There were $2.5 billion in institutional inflows into Fair Isaac stock last quarter, indicating strong investor interest and confidence [13]. Group 5: Long-Term Outlook - The recent stock dip is viewed as a short-term reaction to competition rather than a fundamental issue, positioning FICO for potential recovery and growth [14]. - The current market conditions present a buying opportunity for investors looking to acquire a company with a strong competitive moat at a discounted price [14].

Core Insights - FICO maintains a "Buy" rating from Seaport Global, with an increased price target from $2,200 to $2,250 [1][6] - Despite the positive outlook, FICO's stock price recently dropped by 9.8% in a single day, currently trading at $1,695.01 [2][6] - FICO has a strong financial profile, with a revenue growth of 14.7% and an operating margin of 44.2% [3][6] Financial Performance - FICO's market capitalization stands at approximately $41 billion, with annual revenue of $1.8 billion [2] - The company has a low Debt to Equity ratio of 0.06 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08, indicating financial stability [3] - The stock's valuation is high, with a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 71.6 and a Price to Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (P/EBIT) ratio of 50.5 [3] Stock Performance History - Historically, FICO has seen a significant drop of over 30% in less than 30 days only once since 2010, followed by a rebound of 66.3% within a year [4] - The stock has fluctuated between a low of $1,651.03 and a high of $1,716.12 during the trading day [5] - Over the past year, FICO's stock reached a high of $2,402.52 and a low of $1,300 [5]