6月25日，红利低波ETF（512890）涨超0.84%，最新价1.201元。换手率1.86%，成交额3.51亿。从资金 流向来看，近 5 个交易日红利低波 ETF（512890）资金净流入 8.45 亿元，近 20 个交易日净流入 15.25 亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞（518880）今年以来涨幅为 6.25%，其最新基金规模为 188.04 亿元，持续受到 资金青睐，稳居同类规模最大红利低波 ETF 的宝座（数据来源：Wind，截至 2025 年 6 月 24 日）。 | | R 512890 红利低波ETF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 委比 | 27.03% 李元 | | 30011 | | 卖五 | 1.205 | 9061 | | | 类园 | 1.204 | 6160 | | | 第二 | 1.203 | 24941 | | | | 1.202 | 336 | | | | 1.201 | 11 | | | 제재 | 1.200 | 2289 | | | | 1.199 | 23410 | | | | 1.198 | 31648 | | | 买四 | 1.197 | ...

证券代码：002480 证券简称：新筑股份 成都市新筑路桥机械股份有限公司 问 3：四川省国资委 2025 年 4 月印发的《关于提高省属 监管企业控股上市公司质量的指导意见》（以下简称"《意见》"） 对省属国企市值管理有何要求？ 答：据了解，《意见》主要聚焦以下方面：一是指导监管 企业和上市公司构建科学的市场价值观，明确市值管理目标， 制定并实施有效的市值管理制度与方案，强化责任落实；二是 推动优质资源向上市公司集中，支持企业围绕市值管理依法合 规运用相关政策工具，聚焦优势产业和战略性新兴产业，通过 并购重组优质标的实现价值提升，促进资源向新质生产力集 聚，推动上市公司做强做大；三是鼓励上市公司利用增持、回 购、分红等手段实现价值创造，对有条件的公司建议优化分红 策略，提高分红比例和频次；四是强化监管企业与投资者、分 析师的互动交流，通过多样化方式主动发声，传递公司投资价 值；同时将市值管理纳入监管企业负责人经营业绩考核体系， 指导企业完善上市公司绩效评价机制，以全方位举措促进上市 公司质量提升和市值稳健增长。 问 4：根据公开信息显示，蜀道集团的核心主业包括综合 交通和能源资源投资开发。新型能源方面，积极 ...

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The report presents a unique research framework that suggests pig prices may stabilize before declining, reaching a low by the end of the year, with capacity reduction being a current industry theme [2][4] - The analysis indicates that the pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the current phase is characterized by price declines and capacity reduction, with a focus on the impacts of prices, policies, and diseases [4][5] Group 2: Duty-Free Industry - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the sales decline in the duty-free sector, with a strong rebound in average transaction value, indicating signs of data recovery [2][10] - The implementation of the "immediate buy and refund" policy nationwide is expected to enhance the shopping conversion rate for foreign consumers in China [12][20] - The report suggests that the duty-free channel has significant price advantages, allowing it to capture market share effectively, with products like cosmetics being priced at 70-80% of taxable prices [12][22] Group 3: Debt Market - The report anticipates a key strategy shift in the debt market, with expectations of a long-term decline in broad interest rates due to economic data divergence and capital market resilience [6][7] - It discusses the potential for credit bond rates to decrease, enhancing the attractiveness of government bonds [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity and interest rate trends, suggesting that the debt market may experience a rebound [6][7] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industry - The report indicates that the solid-state battery industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, supported by government policies and funding [24][25] - It highlights the significant market potential for solid-state batteries in various applications, including electric vehicles and low-altitude aircraft [25][26] - The report notes that leading companies are making progress in developing solid-state battery prototypes, which is expected to attract more players into the market [26][27] Group 5: Construction Industry - The report outlines that broad infrastructure investment increased by 9.2% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 12% [28][30] - It emphasizes the need for continued policy support to stabilize the real estate market and improve market confidence [30][31] - The report recommends several construction companies with high dividend yields as potential investment opportunities [31]

四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 2024 年度第二期中期票据 2025 年付息完成公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-063 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司董事会 2025年6月24日 1 0505200555444444052X 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司(以下简称公司)2024 年度第二期中期票据(24 四川路桥 MTN002)，发行金额为人民币 7 亿元，票面利率为 2.20%，期限 3 年， 起息日为 2024 年 6 月 21 日，兑付日为 2027 年 6 月 21 日(具体内容详见公司公告 编号为 2024-059 的《四川路桥 2024 年度第二期中期票据发行结果公告》)。 公司按期完成了 2024 年度第二期中期票据 2025 年付息工作，付息金额为人 民币 15,400,000.00 元，付息资金由银行间市场清算所股份有限公司划付至债券持 有人指定的银行账户。 特此公告。 ...

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-062 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 关于全资子公司向其控股子公司 提供财务资助的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）分别于 2025 年 3 月 4 日、 2025 年 3 月 20 日召开了第八届董事会第五十三次会议、2025 年第三次临时股东 会，审议通过了《关于全资子公司向其控股子公司提供财务资助的议案》，同意 公司全资子公司四川公路桥梁建设集团有限公司（以下简称路桥集团）向其控 股子公司眉山天环基础设施项目开发有限责任公司（以下简称眉山天环公司） 提供不超过 32,086 万元借款，借款期限为 3 年，利率不高于贷款市场报价利率， 具体以实际借款协议为准。同时，眉山天环公司参股股东蜀道投资集团有限责 任公司（以下简称蜀道集团）也将向其提供借款，借款条件同路桥集团。（具体 内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站披露的公告编号为 2025-023 的《四川路桥 关于全资子公司向其控股子公司提供财务资 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects from public sources and provides basic element tracking [1] Group 2: New Project Information - Liaoning Chengda Co., Ltd.'s 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors has received feedback from the exchange, with an intended issuance size of 5 billion yuan, underlying stock being GF Securities (000776.SZ), and the lead underwriter being CITIC Construction Securities. The exchange updated the information on June 16, 2025 [2] Group 3: Project Status Table - Lists various private EB projects, including bond names, lead underwriters, issuance sizes, underlying stocks, project statuses, and update dates. Projects are in different statuses such as "Passed" and "Feedback Received" [3] Group 4: Related Research Reports - Lists related research reports on private EB weekly tracking from different time periods [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

Group 1: Market Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 2.24%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.45%, resulting in a relative return of -1.79 percentage points [1] - The top three sub-industries with the largest weekly declines were state-owned infrastructure enterprises (-1.54%), national infrastructure enterprises (-1.68%), and private infrastructure enterprises (-2.07%) [1] - The top three sub-industries with the highest annual growth were ecological landscaping (+10.84%), decorative curtain walls (+7.86%), and specialized engineering (+3.82%) [1] Group 2: Company Performance - The top five individual stocks with the highest weekly gains were Shen Shui Institute (+15.45%), ST Jiao Investment (+7.1%), Chengdu Road and Bridge (+6.51%), Huilv Ecology (+6.49%), and Shikong Technology (+6.29%) [1] - The bottom five individual stocks with the largest weekly declines were Zhi Te New Materials (-18%), Ao Ya Shares (-17.6%), Huo Pu Shares (-11.78%), Zhenhai Shares (-11.25%), and ST Hua Wang (-10.71%) [1] Group 3: Industry Changes - National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, manufacturing investment rose by 8.5%, and infrastructure investment (full caliber) grew by 10.4% [2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7% [2] Group 4: Key Company Developments - China National Chemical Engineering signed a business contract for the second phase of a 500,000-ton soda ash plant project in Kazakhstan, with a total amount of $337 million, accounting for 19.8% of the company's 2024 revenue [2] - China Chemical's new contracts signed from January to May 2025 totaled 150.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.92% [2] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity with the deepening of national strategic layouts [2] - Recommended undervalued state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, with a focus on China Communications Construction and China Metallurgical Group [2] - Recommended private enterprises include Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure, with a focus on Zhongyan Dadi, Shenzhen Ruijie, and Huayang International [2]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 四川路桥（600039.SH） 再论四川路桥高分红的持续性如何？ 四川交通基建需求广阔、财政充沛，四川路桥订单充裕、有望向业绩持续 转化。 从四川交通基建需求来看，2024 年四川完成公路水路交通固定资产投资 2608 亿元，连续 4 年超 2000 亿元，2024 年占全国的比为 9.3%，连续 4 年稳步提升，2015-2024 年投资额复合增速 8.2%；2024 年底四川高速公 路通车里程 10310 公里，占全国的比为 5.4%，连续 10 年占比提升。四 川规划到 2035 年高速公路网达 2 万公里，因此未来 10 年省内高速公路 有翻倍建设空间。此外，四川省已被明确定义为国家战略腹地省市，预计 后续将在国家战略腹地建设中占据核心地位，若后续国家战略腹地顶层设 计出台，四川高速公路项目及大量基建项目有望获国家专项补助资金，保 障项目现金流、利润率，并驱动项目加快推进。 从四川财政情况来看，2024 年四川省地方财政收入 5635 亿元，全国排名 第 7；地方财政支出 1.34 万亿元，全国排名第 3。四川财政 ...

6月20日晚间，证监会发布11份行政处罚决定书，编号为〔2025〕66号—76号，涉及案由均为内幕交易，罚没金额约6000万元。 涉同一案件，9人被罚没1600万元 南财快讯记者注意到，前七条（66号至72号）披露的信息均显示，2023年4月23日，相关公司披露《关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告》并于次日按计划 停牌。上述控制权变更事项在公开前为内幕信息。该内幕信息不晚于2022年10月26日形成，公开于2023年4月23日。 记者检索日期与公告发现，2023年4月23日晚间，惠伦晶体（300460.SZ）披露了《关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告》。 | 公告日期 ◆ | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发布时间 = | | 公告标题 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2023-04-24 | 300460.SZ | 惠伦晶体 | 2023-04-23 15:52 | 惠伦晶体：关于筹划公司控制权变更的停牌公告 | | 其中66号行政处罚决定书显示，邵力行为内幕信息知情人，知悉时点不晚于2023年1月9日。在2023年1月9日至4月23日期间，邵力行通过他人账户交 ...