Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends and their influence on asset prices and investor behavior, particularly in the context of equity analysis and research [1]. Group 1: Professional Background - The company has over 10 years of experience in asset management, focusing on equity analysis, macroeconomics, and risk-managed portfolio construction [1]. - The expertise covers both institutional and private client asset management, with a strong emphasis on multi-asset strategies [1]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The company believes in making investing accessible, inspiring, and empowering for all investors [1]. - There is a commitment to sharing insights and exchanging ideas to enhance long-term investing confidence [1]. Group 3: Market Focus - The company closely monitors EU and US central bank policies, sector rotation, and sentiment dynamics to construct actionable investment strategies [1]. - The analysis includes navigating various market conditions over the past decade, indicating a robust understanding of market dynamics [1].

Core Insights - Huntress has appointed Chris Comparato, former CEO of Toast, as its first independent Board member, aiming to leverage his extensive experience in scaling high-growth SaaS companies [1][2]. Company Overview - Huntress is a global cybersecurity company focused on making enterprise-grade cybersecurity products accessible to all businesses, with a mission to protect the businesses that power communities [4]. - The company offers a range of cybersecurity solutions, including Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR), Identity Threat Detection and Response (ITDR), Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) tools, and Security Awareness Training (SAT) [4]. Leadership and Strategy - Comparato brings over 25 years of leadership experience, having successfully led Toast through significant growth and its IPO in 2021 [2]. - The CEO of Huntress, Kyle Hanslovan, emphasizes the importance of bringing in top-tier executives to help the company reach its billion-dollar potential and navigate its current hyper-growth phase [3]. Operational Capabilities - Huntress operates a 24/7 AI-assisted Security Operations Center (SOC) staffed by a team of engineers, researchers, and security analysts dedicated to preventing cyber threats [5]. - The company currently protects over 4 million endpoints and 8 million identities, empowering security teams and Managed Service Providers (MSPs) worldwide [5].

Core Insights - Huntress has appointed Chris Comparato, former CEO of Toast, as its first independent Board member, aiming to leverage his extensive experience in scaling high-growth SaaS companies [1][2] Company Overview - Huntress is a global cybersecurity company focused on making enterprise-grade cybersecurity products accessible to all businesses, with a mission to protect the businesses that power communities [4] - The company offers a range of cybersecurity solutions, including Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR), Identity Threat Detection and Response (ITDR), Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), and Security Awareness Training (SAT) [4] Leadership and Growth Strategy - Comparato brings over 25 years of leadership experience and has successfully led Toast through significant growth, including its IPO in 2021 [2] - The CEO of Huntress, Kyle Hanslovan, emphasizes the importance of bringing in top-tier executives to help the company reach its billion-dollar potential and navigate its current hyper-growth phase [3] Operational Capabilities - Huntress operates a 24/7 AI-assisted Security Operations Center (SOC) staffed by renowned engineers and security analysts, dedicated to preventing cyber threats [5] - The company currently protects over 4 million endpoints and 8 million identities, empowering security teams and Managed Service Providers (MSPs) worldwide [5]

Analyst Ratings & Company Performance - Rothschild analyst Dominic Ball maintains a sell rating on Fire Serv, which has declined by 70% since the rating was issued [1][2] - Only 5% of analysts on the Bloomberg terminal issue sell ratings [3] - Global Payments is also rated as sell by only 6% of analysts covering it [9] - Fire Serv stock is down 40% over the past five years, while Global Payments is down 50% over the same period [16] Company Strategy & Challenges - Fire Serv's Clover product (a point of sale system) is facing issues, indicating a systemic problem [2] - Management at Fire Serv has focused too aggressively on Clover, potentially underinvesting in other areas [7] - Companies that have grown through M&A face challenges in consolidating and focusing R&D on new technologies [8][10][11] - Payments industry faces rapid technological changes, including the emergence of gig commerce and stablecoins [8] Competitive Landscape & Opportunities - Toast is highlighted as a strong competitor with a focused approach and significant market share gains in the restaurant vertical [9][14] - Toast is considered materially underrated, with the potential for significant growth and high margins [15] - Analyst has a target price of $60 for Toast, which IPO'd when interest rates were near 0% [17] - Toast has scaled to 35% EBIT margins within 18 months while adding more locations [18]

Stock Recommendations & Analysis - Energy Transfer is considered an excellent company, but Enterprise Product Partners is the preferred recommendation [2] - Toast is viewed as a buy, specifically after their report on November 4th, based on the idea that the restaurants aren't doing well, but Toast is doing well [4] - DBLT: It is suggested to take off a little and let the rest run, taking out three times the cost base to avoid losing money [5] - Seals Q (QLAS): The analyst is not going to opine on Seals Q (QLAS) because he considers himself an amateur and another person an expert [7] Individual Stock Stories - A stock rose like a phoenix from the ashes, from $4 a share in 2020 to around $17 a share [1] - An investor has been buying the lows and harvesting the highs in the meme rat [5] - An investor has already rang the register three times on a small post quantum company, Seals Q (QLAS) [7] General Market Sentiment - The market is currently trading on the idea that restaurants aren't doing well [4] - Natural gas is being supplied to AI and data centers [2]

Market Overview & Investment Thesis - Fintech sector exhibits a dichotomy: strong fundamentals ($2 trillion+ market cap, solid financials, secular tailwinds) versus negative investor sentiment (competition, disruption worries) [3][4] - Wells Fargo believes investor sentiment is overly negative, presenting numerous opportunities in the fintech space [4] "Fab Five" Fintech Companies - **Auden:** Possesses best-in-class back-end tech stack, expanding into new markets, expected to maintain 20%+ topline growth for several years [6] - **Affirm:** Buy now pay later (BNPL) has robust secular opportunity, currently representing only 8% of US e-commerce; management team and execution are impressive [7] - **Mastercard:** Maintains a tremendous competitive moat, adapting to new payment technologies, and generating a terrific cash flow profile [8] - **Visa:** Similar thesis to Mastercard, with effective diversification into value-added services [9] - **Toast:** Holds a strong competitive position in the point-of-sale space [9] Underweight Ratings (Cyclical Call) - ADP and Paychex are underweight due to cyclical concerns related to potential rising unemployment and lowering of interest rates [10] - The underweight ratings are not structural, as these companies still have solid business models [10] Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) - Wells Fargo views BNPL as a more consumer-friendly product than traditional credit cards due to transparency and lack of late fees (specifically the "pay in four" model) [12][13][14] - BNPL can help consumers stretch their dollars, especially around the holidays, and retailers benefit from increased transactions [14]

You want to give me a final. >> Uh, yeah. Goldman Sachs.Go with that one. >> Okay. >> Final here.>> Uh, Microsoft earnings in a couple of weeks. Better improve margins. >> Okay.Who's got Schwab. Is that >> Schwab. Yeah.Had a really strong quarter. Added a >> trying to frontr run Liz Anne Saunders appearance. >> I love Lizzie. Love Liz.Uh, she works for them. She could talk about anything. Um, $13 trillion in assets and they keep growing.>> Okay. Uh, good stuff. Josh Brown.Uh, toast green on my screen. Okay. ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded PayPal's rating to "Sell" due to pressure on profit margins and a slowing growth path towards 2026, setting a new target price of $70 [1] - The downgrade reflects increasing investor concerns about profit margin pressures and growth slowdowns in the digital payments sector [1] - PayPal faces multiple headwinds in the coming year, including persistent interest rate pressures, diminishing benefits from existing credit products, and reduced pricing effectiveness in its Braintree business [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs highlighted challenges in promoting its brand checkout service, particularly in the German market and disruptions from changes in U.S. tariffs and small exemption policies, alongside competition from digital wallet rivals [1] - Analysts noted that if core business growth does not accelerate, combined with the expiration of several one-time benefits in 2026 and ongoing interest rate headwinds, transaction profit margin growth may fall below market expectations [1] - Goldman Sachs currently forecasts a transaction profit margin growth of approximately 3% for PayPal in 2026, compared to the market's expectation of around 5% [1] Group 3 - The firm warned of rising operational cost risks as PayPal increases marketing efforts for its "buy now, pay later" products, recently launching a 5% promotional offer [1] - This increase in marketing expenditure is expected to further drag down earnings per share, with significant downside risks [1] - The downgrade coincides with a broader reassessment of technology and payment stocks, with Goldman noting a roughly 5% decline in average coverage since the recent earnings season, leading to cautious investor sentiment towards Q4 earnings [1] Group 4 - In addition to PayPal, Goldman Sachs also downgraded Marqeta to "Sell" but remains optimistic about the short-term prospects of a few companies, including FIS, Toast, and Globe Life [2]

Core Insights - The combined projected spending on AI infrastructure by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and OpenAI is estimated to reach $325 billion by the end of the year [1][2][4]. - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures (CapEx) for AI, with Microsoft at $64.6 billion, Amazon at $107.7 billion, Alphabet at $66.9 billion, and Meta at $52.2 billion, while Apple is comparatively lower at $12.4 billion [4][6]. AI Infrastructure Investment - The AI infrastructure opportunity is seen as a paradigm shift, with companies integrating AI into their workflows and operations [3][4]. - Alibaba is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity in AI, with significant investments in AI capabilities, including data centers and custom chips, and a rapidly growing Cloud Intelligence unit [6][8]. - AMD is positioned as a competitor to NVIDIA, having signed a multi-year deal with OpenAI to supply compute capacity, which is expected to generate substantial revenue [9][10]. Market Predictions and Trends - There is a prediction of a mini crash in the AI infrastructure investment theme within the next three years, leading to a reevaluation of spending by major hyperscalers [12][13]. - Despite potential downturns, there is a belief that the demand for AI infrastructure will remain strong, with forecasts suggesting $2 trillion in investment by 2026 and $4 trillion by 2030 [13][14]. - The emergence of specialist AI models is anticipated, which could lead to more efficient use of resources and quicker returns on investment [14][15]. Company Evaluations - Klarna is viewed as a "breaker" due to its pioneering role in the buy now pay later industry, despite concerns about reliance on consumer spending [17][18]. - StubHub is considered a "faker" due to its struggles with margins and potential regulatory scrutiny, indicating challenges in sustaining its market position [19][20]. - Fermi, a new company focused on building data center scale electric power, is labeled a "faker" as it is seen as a business plan without substantial revenue or operational history [22][24].

Core Insights - US restaurant operators are increasingly focusing on profitability and guest demand due to rising costs and workforce challenges, with 40% identifying profitability as a primary objective, a 5 percentage point increase from 2024 [1] - Boosting customer demand or traffic is also a key goal for 29% of operators, reflecting a 6 percentage point rise from the previous year [2] Operational Challenges - Inflation, marketing, and hiring are the main operational challenges faced by restaurant operators, with 20% ranking inflation as their top pain point, while 16% cited marketing and hiring staff [2] - Nearly half (48%) of restaurants indicated they would raise menu prices if inflation continues, a necessary measure to protect margins [3] Margin Preservation Strategies - Operators are employing various strategies to maintain margins, including conducting profit analysis (38%) and switching food suppliers (31%) [3] Labor Market Pressures - Labor pressures have intensified, with 41% of operators reporting moderate to extreme hiring challenges, an increase from 35% in 2024 [4] - In response, 47% of operators are focusing on improving staff efficiency, and 42% are prioritizing new retention strategies [4] Technology Adoption - There is a significant comfort level with AI among operators, with 86% expressing comfort in using it and 81% planning to increase its usage in the future [4] Survey Details - The survey collected responses from 712 restaurant decision-makers operating 16 or fewer locations across the US, including both Toast and non-Toast customers, conducted between April 18 and May 13, 2025 [5]