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Why J Mintzmyer Is Short Walmart And Long 3 Shipping Stocks
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-13 11:00
Core Insights - The shipping sector has experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and supply chain disruptions, making it a dynamic area for investment opportunities [4][6][9]. Shipping Sector Overview - The shipping industry has shifted from a stable, cyclical commodity market to one characterized by ongoing disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Suez Canal crisis, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][10]. - Recent U.S. tariff policies have created unexpected volatility, impacting shipping dynamics globally, particularly with China [8][9]. Earnings Calls and Market Indicators - Earnings calls from retail-focused companies like Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco are crucial for understanding consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on the shipping sector [12][15]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong consumer spending, but many CEOs are downgrading future guidance, indicating potential challenges ahead [17][18]. Supply Chain Disruptions - Current import data indicates that many container ships are operating at only 60% capacity, suggesting supply chain issues that could affect inventory replenishment [27]. - The trucking sector is also facing challenges, with declining demand and rates, potentially leading to bankruptcies among truck drivers [29][30]. Container Shipping Industry - The container shipping industry is currently facing severe challenges, particularly for liner companies like Maersk and CMA CGM, due to high tariffs and reduced trade volumes [44][50]. - Despite the overall negative outlook for container shipping, companies with long-term leasing structures, such as Danaos Corp, may still present investment opportunities [49]. Tanker Industry Outlook - The tanker market is viewed positively, with strong demand driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions against Russia, leading to increased tanker rates [51][64]. - Companies like International Seaways and Tsakos Energy Navigation are highlighted as strong investment candidates within the tanker sector [66][122]. Walmart Short Position - A short position is being taken against Walmart due to its high valuation relative to earnings, with concerns that tariffs will negatively impact profit margins despite potential increases in store traffic [76][82]. - The upcoming guidance update from Walmart is anticipated to be a critical moment for assessing the company's future performance amid tariff challenges [94].
Walmart poised to deliver solid Q1 report as analysts see continued share gains and improving profitability ahead
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2025-05-12 17:07
Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive focuses on sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]
Curious about Walmart (WMT) Q1 Performance? Explore Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
ZACKS· 2025-05-12 14:15
Core Insights - Analysts expect Walmart (WMT) to report quarterly earnings of $0.57 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - Revenue projections stand at $165.56 billion, indicating a 2.5% increase from the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 1% over the past 30 days, showing a reassessment by analysts [1] Revenue and Sales Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Membership and other income' at $1.70 billion, representing an 8.1% year-over-year increase [3] - The consensus for 'Net Sales- Walmart U.S.' is $112.43 billion, suggesting a 3.5% year-over-year growth [4] - 'Revenues- Net Sales' is projected to reach $163.96 billion, indicating a 2.5% year-over-year change [4] - 'Net Sales- Walmart International' is expected to be $29.27 billion, reflecting a decline of 1.9% from the previous year [4] Comparable Store Sales - 'Reported Sales Growth (YoY change) - Walmart International' is forecasted at -1.6%, down from 12.1% in the same quarter last year [5] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Sam's Club - Without Fuel Impact' is projected to be 4.6%, slightly up from 4.4% in the previous year [5] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Walmart U.S. - Without Fuel Impact' is expected to reach 3.9%, compared to 3.8% last year [6] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Total U.S. - Without Fuel Impact' is estimated at 4.0%, up from 3.9% in the same quarter last year [6] Store Metrics - The number of 'Sam's Club' stores is expected to be 602, an increase from 599 last year [7] - The average prediction for 'Net square footage - Total' is 1,053.38 million square feet, compared to 1,050.92 million square feet last year [7] - 'Net square footage - Sam's Club' is projected to be 80.55 million square feet, slightly up from 80.2 million square feet in the previous year [7] - The number of 'International' stores is expected to reach 5,588, up from 5,399 last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Walmart shares have returned +4.2%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.8% [9] - Walmart currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [9]
How Should You Play Walmart Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings Release?
ZACKS· 2025-05-12 12:26
Core Viewpoint - Walmart Inc. is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, with expectations of revenue growth but a decline in earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is $165.6 billion, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-over-year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has decreased to 57 cents per share, indicating a 5% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - Walmart has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.4%, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing estimates by 1.5% [2]. Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for Walmart is -1.76%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting that an earnings beat is not likely this time [3][4]. Business Strengths - Walmart's diversified business model shows consistent contributions across various segments, with increased traffic in both in-store and digital channels [5]. - Growth is driven by expanding e-commerce operations, enhanced pickup options, and accelerated delivery services [5]. - New business ventures, including third-party marketplace and advertising initiatives, are contributing to diversified profit streams [5]. Challenges and Outlook - The company has noted increased week-to-week sales volatility due to economic uncertainty and weakened consumer sentiment [6]. - Walmart anticipates fiscal first-quarter sales growth of 3% to 4%, with a 100 basis point headwind from the leap year comparison [6]. - Adjusted operating income growth is expected to be between 0.5% to 2% at constant currency, with casualty claims expenses being a significant cost pressure [7]. Valuation Analysis - Walmart's stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 36.15, above the industry average of 33.29, indicating a relatively expensive valuation [8]. - Compared to other retail giants, Walmart's valuation is significantly higher, raising concerns among value-focused investors [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Walmart's stock has declined by 8%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [11]. - In comparison, key peers like Kroger and Ross Stores have shown gains, while Target's stock has dropped significantly [11]. Investment Considerations - Walmart's strong business model and growth in high-margin areas position it as a reliable choice for growth-focused investors [13]. - However, short-term challenges such as sales volatility and rising operating expenses may warrant caution for value investors [13].
Contact The Gross Law Firm by June 16, 2025 Deadline to Join Class Action Against Ibotta, Inc.(IBTA)
Prnewswire· 2025-05-12 09:45
CLASS PERIOD: This lawsuit is on behalf of persons or entities who purchased or otherwise acquired publicly traded Ibotta securities pursuant and/or traceable to documents issued in connection with Ibotta's April 18, 2024 initial public offering. ALLEGATIONS: According to the filed complaint, defendants made false statements and/or concealed that they did not properly warn investors of the risks concerning Ibotta's contract with The Kroger Co. ("Kroger"). Kroger's contract was at-will, and Ibotta failed to ...
3 Things I'll Be Watching in Walmart's Upcoming Earnings Report (and 2 I'll Ignore)
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-12 08:12
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings report from Walmart is anticipated to provide insights into consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on the company's performance, with a focus on metrics beyond traditional quarterly earnings [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Walmart to report earnings of $0.58 per share on sales of $164.5 billion for the three-month period ending in April, reflecting a 2% increase in revenue compared to $161.5 billion a year ago [4]. - Rising costs are expected to negatively impact the bottom line, with a decrease from the previous year's per-share earnings of $0.60 [4]. - U.S. same-store sales growth is likely to have slowed from 4.9% in the previous quarter, indicating the effects of inflation and economic uncertainty on consumer spending [4]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Long-Term Health - The growth of Walmart's retail media business, which includes advertising, is a critical metric; the company is expected to report a percentage change in this area, likely in the mid-20% range, following a 28% year-over-year increase to $3.4 billion last year [7]. - The cost of goods sold and operating costs are essential to monitor, particularly in light of tariff-induced price increases; the previous quarter's gross margin rate was around 24% [9]. - Walmart's e-commerce growth is another vital area, with online sales having improved by 16% overall and 20% in the U.S. in the last quarter, although this represents a slowdown compared to previous growth rates [12][13]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-Term Outlook - Initial market reactions to Walmart's earnings report may focus on revenue and earnings data, but these figures may be skewed by tariff-related issues [14][15]. - RBC Capital Markets suggests that Walmart is better positioned than competitors to manage tariff challenges due to its scale and operational flexibility, indicating that any short-term issues may be resolved quickly [15]. - The long-term perspective should consider the aforementioned metrics, which provide a clearer understanding of Walmart's navigation through the current economic landscape [16].
2 Affordable Dividend Growth Stocks to Buy And Hold Forever
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-11 22:30
Group 1: Alpine Income - Alpine Income is a relatively new REIT founded in 2019, with a market cap of $216.6 million, making it a smaller alternative to larger REITs like Realty Income, which has a market cap of $51 billion [4] - The company focuses on single-tenant net-lease properties, resulting in lower overhead costs as tenants are responsible for expenses like taxes, insurance, and maintenance [4][5] - Alpine Income's portfolio consists of 134 properties that are 99% occupied and diversified across 35 U.S. states, with top tenants including well-known brands like Dicks Sporting Goods and Lowe's [5] - The company offers a high dividend yield of 7.6%, significantly above the S&P 500 index average of 1.27%, making it attractive for income-focused investors [6] Group 2: Dollar General - Dollar General's shares have increased by 22% year to date, recovering from previous weaknesses due to high inflation affecting its low-cost business model [7] - The company is better positioned to handle potential threats from new tariff policies, with only 10% of its inventory exposed to global tariffs, compared to 50% for Dollar Tree and nearly 100% for other retailers [8] - Dollar General's focus on low prices and rural areas creates an economic moat, attracting customers away from larger competitors like Walmart and Target [9] - The company has an attractive valuation with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 17, significantly lower than Walmart's 37 times expected earnings, and offers a dividend yield of 2.6% [10]
Walmart & Retail Sector Earnings Loom: A Closer Look
ZACKS· 2025-05-10 00:25
Core Insights - Walmart (WMT) shares have significantly outperformed the broader market and competitors like Target (TGT) and Amazon (AMZN) this year, with a year-to-date increase of +7.2% compared to the S&P 500 index's decline of -4.3% and Target's drop of -28.6% [1][3]. Financial Performance - Walmart is set to report quarterly results on May 15, with expectations of $0.58 in EPS and $165.6 billion in revenues, reflecting year-over-year changes of -3.3% in EPS and +2.5% in revenues [2][11]. - The company has achieved sales growth of +5.5% and operating income growth of +9.5% over the past two years, exceeding its long-term targets of at least +4% sales growth [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Approximately two-thirds of Walmart's U.S. sales come from domestically-sourced products, providing some insulation from tariff impacts, with groceries accounting for nearly 60% of sales [7]. - Walmart's commitment to maintaining a price advantage over competitors is supported by its size, supplier relationships, and automation in logistics [7]. - The growing e-commerce segment is not only attracting higher-income households but also contributing to higher-margin revenue streams such as advertising and third-party fulfillment [8][10]. Retail Sector Context - The retail sector is experiencing a positive trend, with Q1 earnings for retailers that have reported so far up +20.2% year-over-year on +6.9% higher revenues [9][15]. - Same-store sales (excluding fuel) for Walmart are expected to increase by +3.21% for the quarter, slightly down from +4.9% in the previous period [12]. Broader Industry Trends - The retail sector's earnings growth is being closely monitored, with 20 out of 33 S&P 500 retailers reporting Q1 results, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape as digital and brick-and-mortar operations converge [14][17]. - The overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 is showing a +12.2% increase in total earnings from the same period last year, with 73.7% of companies beating EPS estimates [22][24].
Walmart Q1 Earnings Preview: All Eyes On The Health Of The U.S. Consumer
Seeking Alpha· 2025-05-09 20:47
Core Viewpoint - Walmart Inc. is set to release its Q1 earnings on May 15, and investors should focus on key factors that may impact the company's performance in the report [1]. Group 1: Earnings Release - The Q1 earnings report is scheduled before market open on May 15 [1]. - Investors are advised to monitor specific factors that could influence the results [1].
Wall Street's Newest Stock-Split Stock -- Which Has Gained 343% in 5 Years -- Is Set to Make History
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-09 07:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of stock splits on Wall Street, highlighting their role in the current bull market and the appeal they hold for investors, particularly in the context of companies that are performing well and seeking to attract everyday investors [1][2][3]. Stock Split Dynamics - Stock splits are cosmetic adjustments that do not affect a company's market capitalization or operational performance [3]. - There are two types of stock splits: forward splits, which lower share prices to make them more accessible, and reverse splits, which are typically used by struggling companies to avoid delisting [4][5]. Performance of Companies with Forward Splits - Companies that announce forward stock splits tend to outperform the market, with an average annual return of 25.4% in the year following the announcement, compared to the S&P 500's 11.9% [7]. - High-profile companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Walmart completed forward splits in 2024, indicating a trend among brand-name businesses to attract everyday investors [8]. Recent Stock Split Announcements - O'Reilly Automotive announced a 15-for-1 forward split, effective June 9, 2025, which reflects its strong performance in the auto parts sector as consumers keep their vehicles longer [9][10]. - Fastenal approved a 2-for-1 forward split, marking its ninth split since going public in 1987, with a stock price increase of nearly 124,000% since its debut [12][13]. Interactive Brokers Group's Historic Split - Interactive Brokers Group announced a 4-for-1 forward split, the first in its history, following a 343% increase in stock price over the past five years, aimed at making stock ownership more accessible [15][16]. - The company has seen significant growth in customer accounts, equity, and trading activity, benefiting from favorable market conditions [19][21]. Market Context and Valuation - Despite strong performance metrics, Interactive Brokers' stock is considered expensive with a forward P/E ratio of nearly 23, representing a 14% premium over its five-year average [20]. - The company has experienced a 65% increase in customer accounts and a 67% surge in customer equity, indicating robust growth in its trading platform [21].