重申看好先进封装、国产算力及 CPU 产业链 20260202 摘要 半导体封测行业进入强周期，台厂和陆厂封测涨价，存储封测行情启动， 南茂等台厂涨价幅度达 30%-40%，国科微、中微半导体等传统封测也 发布涨价通知，日月光等龙头企业报价涨幅接近 20%。 国内企业加速卡位先进封装环节，2026 年将成为国内先进封装产能从 小批量到大规模扩张的起点。长电科技、通富微电、永新电子、华天科 技等公司在 2.5D 技术上取得进展，盛合晶微 IPO 将重塑封测行业估值 体系。 国产模型进入密集发布期，字节跳动等公司推出新模型，对推理侧需求 有明确拉动作用。字节跳动 1 月份日均 token 消耗量约 60 万亿，中期 目标为 180 万亿，春节期间算力需求激增，计划投入 1,000-1,500 万 K8S 支持算力储备。 主要云厂商如华为 Atlas、升思等将从单卡切换至超节点采购方案，以 提升推理性能与性价比，2026 年是国产算力产业链明确元年，看好相 关产业链。 CPU 需求持续增长，微软构建企业级 AI 应用与智能体闭环，客户在工 作负载中使用多个模型，提升 CPU 在调度、管理等环节中的参与度。企 业级用 ...

We came across a bullish thesis on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited on Long-term Investing’s Substack by Sanjiv. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TSM. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's share was trading at $330.56 as of January 30th. TSM’s trailing and forward P/E were 31.51 and 25.32 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. ASE Technology (ASX) Jumps 23% on Q3 Blowout Photo by Yogesh Phuyal on Unsplash Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Compan ...

Core Insights - The increasing complexity and demands of chip design are making advanced packaging increasingly important, which is a positive trend for ASE Technology [1] - Investments in AI are significantly amplifying opportunities in the semiconductor industry, creating a large and rapidly growing market [1]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) has gained significant attention following the construction of its first advanced semiconductor factory in the United States, located in Phoenix, Arizona [1] Company Overview - TSM is recognized as a high-octane stock, reflecting its pivotal role in the semiconductor industry and its strategic expansion into the U.S. market [1] Industry Context - The company operates within the technology sector, specifically focusing on semiconductor manufacturing, which is crucial as the world transitions towards more advanced technologies [1]

Investment Rating - The industry view for Semiconductor Production Equipment is rated as Attractive [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift towards CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) technology, with TSMC investing in a pilot line for 310mm² substrates, indicating a growing trend in the industry [4][9]. - ASE Technology has introduced a 2.3D package technology using 300mm² substrates, suggesting a contraction in substrate sizes from the previously defined standards [5]. - The anticipated timeline for equipment deliveries to pilot lines for 310mm² PLP is set for mid-2026, with large-scale investment decisions expected by mid-2027 [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The WFE market (excluding lithography) is projected to grow by 5% YoY in 2025, driven by investments from Chinese manufacturers and improved yields for logic makers [22]. - The report indicates a potential contraction of the WFE market by 4% YoY in 2025 due to a slowdown in the Chinese market, although investments in flash memory are expected to resume in the latter half of the year [23]. Company Performance - SCREEN Holdings has raised its price target from ¥13,600 to ¥13,800, reflecting an optimistic outlook on earnings growth driven by the adoption of 310mm² substrates [6][11]. - The earnings forecast for SCREEN Holdings has been adjusted, with projected PLP-related sales increasing to ¥5 billion for F3/27 and ¥7 billion for F3/28 [11]. Financial Projections - Operating profit for SCREEN Holdings is expected to reach ¥135.7 billion in 2025, with a gross margin of 37.6% [29]. - EPS is forecasted to be ¥1,155.5 for the base year F3/28, which is anticipated to be the next earnings peak [18][22]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the shift to smaller substrates, including Disco, Screen HD, and Ulvac, which are expected to see increased orders for CoPoS technology [9][11]. - The demand for cleaning systems remains strong, contributing positively to the overall market outlook for SCREEN Holdings [18].

Group 1 - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is developing a space-based cellular broadband network that will work with standard mobile devices, leveraging its extensive IP and patent portfolio [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AST SpaceMobile's current year earnings has been revised downward by 75.6% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) provides behavioral health care services in the United States and Puerto Rico [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Acadia Healthcare's current year earnings has been revised downward by almost 18.8% over the last 60 days [2] Group 3 - ASE Technology (ASX) offers semiconductor manufacturing services, specifically in assembly and testing [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASE Technology's current year earnings has been revised downward by 6.2% over the last 60 days [2]