Vi e w p o i n t | 25 Feb 2026 04:58:06 ET │ 13 pages China Property Turning Around: More Likely to Stabilize with Volume Bounce on Policy CITI'S TAKE Expect more broad-based sales volume bounce in Mar on policy tailwinds — The physical market in Jan proved our view was too skeptical & we have now turned more positive on China Property. Fundamentally, we see better CNY sales in key cities, improved secondary sales from Jan, decrease in secondary listings & expect new home sales to improve in Mar/Apr given p ...

25 February 2026 | 7:02AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 7 & 8 Wrap - Positive CNY sales performance against undemanding 2025 base Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other ...

10 February 2026 | 7:37AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 6 Wrap - Slower turnover ahead of CNY but sentiment held steady Key highlights for the week: In line with the deceleration in leading indicators in recent weeks and seasonal effects ahead of CNY, market activities slowed broadly with primary volume falling 4% wow (22% below the average level recorded in the 2 weeks before CNY-2025), and secondary volume declining 3% wow (4% below the same pre-CNY 2025 level). Leading indicators al ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major property developers in January 2026 and expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted sales for the 25 major developers tracked fell **32% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, despite a low base due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced declines of **26% and 29% y-y**, respectively, in January, compared to **-22% and -29%** in December [2]. Divergence in Developer Performance - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers with milder declines. Notable performers included: - **China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI)**: +20% y-y - **Jinmao**: +14% y-y - **CR Land**: +0.4% y-y - Conversely, developers like **Sunac**, **Shimao**, **CIFI**, **Midea RE**, and **GZ R&F** reported declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. Market Outlook - The physical property market is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026-27, with projected declines of **8% and 6% y-y** in secondary home prices [4]. - A meaningful nationwide housing policy is anticipated to remain muted in the coming months, contributing to fragile buyer sentiment and increased inventory [4]. Investment Sentiment - Recent sentiment-driven outperformance in the China property industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of a sector pullback as results season approaches [5]. - The focus remains on quality names with credible self-help stories, such as: - **CR Land (1109.HK)** - **Seazen (601155.SS)** - **C&D International (1908.HK)**, which is seen as a consolidator in the residential market with optimized landbanks [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of continued challenges for developers, particularly those with weaker brand recognition and fewer saleable resources [5][6].

Summary of China Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Key Focus**: Market expectations, policy changes, sales performance, and investment opportunities Core Insights 1. **Investor Positioning**: Many investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, and overseas have been underweight in the China property sector, while sectors like metals, mining, tech, and healthcare are well-owned. There is a shift towards increasing exposure in the property sector due to fear of missing out on potential recovery [1][2] 2. **Sales and Investment Trends**: Secondary sales improved in January, with a month-on-month increase compared to December. However, new home sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% expected to persist into Q1 2026 due to last year's high base [2][4] 3. **Policy Easing Expectations**: Positive market sentiment in January was driven by expectations of policy easing, including VAT cuts and adjustments to down payment requirements for commercial properties. The easing of the "three red lines" policy indicates that deleveraging targets may have been met [2][15] 4. **Opportunistic Window**: There is a belief that an opportunistic window may exist from January to March before the National People's Congress meeting and FY25 earnings reports, suggesting potential for strategic investments during this period [2] 5. **Stock Picks**: Recommended stocks include China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI), Jinmao, and Greentown, which are expected to benefit from land acquisition growth and ample saleable resources in 2026. CR Land is noted for its strong fundamentals but is already well-owned [3] 6. **Secondary Market Activity**: Secondary transaction volumes improved to approximately 26,038 units in the week ending January 25, 2026, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase. This is seen as a positive sign for market confidence [3][9] 7. **New Home Sales Performance**: New home sales increased by 15% week-on-week but are still down approximately 30% year-on-year. The primary sales trend remains uncertain and is not yet sustainable [4][11] 8. **Land Acquisition Trends**: Significant increases in land acquisition costs were noted for several companies, with Jinmao seeing a 78% increase year-on-year. In contrast, Vanke and Longfor reported substantial declines in land acquisition values [17] Additional Important Points - **Policy Support**: Recent supportive policies include lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property mortgages and extending tax refund policies for home buyers [15][16] - **Market Sentiment**: The market's positive response to policy changes indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the property sector, despite ongoing challenges in new home sales [2][4] - **Valuation Insights**: The sector's valuations are being closely monitored, with recommendations varying from buy to neutral based on individual company fundamentals [20] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting both opportunities and ongoing challenges.

30 January 2026 | 5:15PM CST Equity Research China Property: 3RL removal not new, but raise market expectations on timely policy support to strengthen YTD positive momentum On Jan 28th, onshore news reported that multiple property developers (spanning SOE/POE entities of stable/distressed operating conditions) confirmed that central regulators no longer require monthly submission of "Three-Red-Lines" ("3RL") indicator data. Our conversations with a couple of developers indicate that such monthly reporting h ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 29 Jan 2026 01:59:47 ET │ 13 pages China Property Three Red Lines to Ease but Unlikely to Leverage Up for Investment in ST CITI'S TAKE Policies pacing up: talk of easing "three red lines" — Property firms are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators to authorities (Bloomberg, 29 Jan). We note the "three red lines" were implemented since Aug'2020 in an aim to limit debt and encourage sector deleveraging. Indeed, after the Qiushi Journal article (link) that set a supportive ...

27 January 2026 | 6:56AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 4 Wrap - Transactions improved across markets but leading indicators showed slowing signs Key highlights for the week: Central level: the MNR and MOHURD jointly released new measures to further support urban renewal with enhanced execution flexibility. Key points include: 1) more flexible land transition policies, whereby the original 5-year fixed transition period, during which land use and planning conditions could not be altered ...

Accessible version China Property (H/A) Investor feedback: "wait-and-see" to skepticism; FY25 earnings preview Price Objective Change From "wait-and-see" to skepticism on policy outlook Investor feedback to our sector outlook report (YA report dated 08 January 2026), in which we expressed our contrarian positive view on the sector, has ranged from a broadly "wait- and-see" stance to skepticism. The strong performance of other sectors (especially tech) has also reduced any perceived urgency to reposition. Ke ...

22 January 2026 | 3:04PM CST Equity Research CHINA C-REITs: A new regulatory framework to accelerate transformation of our covered companies to an asset-light model In this report, we highlight the Commercial Property REITs pilot program (vs. prior Infrastructure REITs) launched in December 2025, a new regulatory framework that we believe will further drive C-REITs market growth in China and accelerate our covered companies' transformation to an asset-light model for their IP business (by enhancing the visi ...