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固定收益部市场日报-20260105
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-01-05 07:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Asia IG names were unchanged to 2bps tighter in the morning, with flows favoring higher - yielding issues in greater Asia and LGFV spaces [3] - Macau's gaming industry had solid GGR growth in 2025, and the 2026 target seems conservative [6] - China's PMI signaled a temporary improvement, with expected GDP growth decline from 5% in 2025 to 4.8% in 2026, and potential policy stimulus [3][10][11][15] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - ARAMCO 35s tightened 1bp, FABUH 30 widened 5bps last Friday [2] - Chinese IG names had spreads changes of 5bps tighter to 4bps wider, NWDEVL Perps rose 0.2 - 1.9pts, VDNWDL 9 Perp increased by 1.4pts [2] - The buy recommendation on NWDEVL 5.25 Perp and NWDEVL 8.675 02/06/28 was changed to neutral, and a buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp was initiated [2] - Lai Sun Development's Chairman made a profit of USD11.3mn from trading LASUDE 26, and LASUDE 26 was up by 0.8pt [2] - Various bonds in different regions and industries had price and spread changes, such as Macau gaming, Chinese properties, JP, and SE Asia [2] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers included VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 with a 3.3 price change, NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP with a 1.9 change [4] - Top underperformers included FTLNHD 11.88 09/30/27 with a - 0.9 change, COSL 2 1/2 06/24/30 with a - 0.9 change [4] Macro News Recap - S&P (+0.19%), Dow (+0.66%) and Nasdaq (-0.03%) were mixed last Friday, and Trump made a statement about Venezuela [5] - 5/10/30 year UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.74%/4.19%/4.86% [5] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Macau's GGR in Dec'25 increased 14.8% yoy to MOP20.9bn, and cumulatively in 2025, it increased 9.1% to MOP247.4bn, 84.6% of 2019 level [6] - In 2025, tourist arrival was 40.1mn, up 15% yoy and exceeding the 2019 record [6] - Macau government's 2026 GGR target of MOP236bn seems conservative [6] - MPELs and STCITYs are top picks, WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, and neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7] Desk Analyst Comments - China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in December but recovery was fragile due to seasonality [10][11][12] - Demand improved with new orders expanding and export orders approaching expansion, deflation pressure eased [10][11][12] - Service PMI remained in contraction, construction PMI rebounded [11][13] - Growth is expected to be under pressure in early 2026, potentially triggering policy stimulus [11][14][15] - Expect a 50bp cut in RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26, and broad fiscal deficit at 8.5% in 2026 [11][14][15] Offshore Asia New Issues - No new offshore Asia issues were priced on the last trading day [17] - Pipeline issues include BOC Aviation, Export - Import Bank of India, and Hyundai Capital America with various tenors and coupon rates [18] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances suspended last Friday during the New Year Holiday [21] - China will broaden fiscal spending in 2026 and prioritize domestic demand [21] - Multiple corporate events such as China Jinmao's redemption, CTF Services' acquisition lapse, and rating changes [21]
中国、日本_被低估的零售药店行业看到曙光- China, Japan_ Undervalued retail pharmacy industry seeing a light at the end of the tunnel
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Pharmacy/Drugstore Industry in China and Japan**: The industry is currently undervalued, with China's pharmacies in a critical transitional phase. The low valuations may represent a cyclical trough as leading companies manage prescription outflow and category expansion effectively. Concerns regarding profitability in Japan's dispensing business due to drug price reductions are considered overblown, suggesting potential for a re-rating in the sector [3][11]. Company Insights - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is viewed neutrally due to a less favorable risk/reward profile, despite a solid long-term investment thesis. Key factors influencing Pop Mart include the necessity of licensing renewals, the importance of owning retail stores during downturns, and the need for appealing design and rapid market response. Significant share price weakness could present a good entry point, with a price target of HK$300 driven by strong sales of new products and upcoming animations [4][11]. - **China Oil E&C and OFS Sector**: Companies like SEG and COSL are highlighted for their strong backlog expansion and expected earnings growth. COSL is projected to deliver a 20% year-over-year growth in net profit for FY25. The sector is characterized by high conviction in record backlogs and stable capital expenditures from major Chinese oil companies. Price targets for several companies in this sector have been lifted, reflecting positive sentiment [6][10][13]. - **China Medtech Industry**: The potential exit of GE HealthCare from the Chinese market underscores a trend of consolidation within the Medtech sector. Domestic companies are expected to gain market share as they are better positioned to navigate local challenges. This shift indicates a rapidly changing competitive landscape [8][11]. Financial Metrics and Projections - **Hong Kong Property Market**: Following a recent rate cut, the effective mortgage rate is now 3.375%, which is still higher than the net rental yield of 3.1%. The expectation is for a positive carry to be achieved by 2026, supporting a forecast of 3-5% home price growth. Key developers to watch include Henderson and Sino Land, with a preference for Swire Properties among landlords [7][12]. - **Earnings and Dividend Projections**: - Offshore Oil Engineering and Yantai Jereh are expected to see significant increases in earnings and dividends, while COSL and Sinopec Oilfield Service Corp are projected to experience declines in earnings estimates [14][16]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the sectors discussed is cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth in the pharmacy and oil sectors, while the Medtech industry faces challenges from multinational exits. The property market in Hong Kong is also expected to stabilize with future rate cuts [3][6][8][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and companies.
Equinor Gets Go-Ahead for Drilling Two Wildcat Wells in the North Sea
ZACKS· 2025-09-17 14:10
Core Insights - Equinor ASA has secured drilling permits for two wildcat wells in the North Sea, indicating a strategic move to explore new hydrocarbon resources [1][9] - The company operates production licenses PL 057 and PL 554, holding 31% and 40% working interests respectively, showcasing its significant role in these projects [2][3][9] Drilling Operations - The drilling for wellbore 34/4-19 S will be conducted using the Deepsea Atlantic semi-submersible rig, with Equinor as the operator and a 31% working interest in PL 057 [2][9] - For the exploratory well 34/6-9 S, operations will utilize the COSLInnovator semi-submersible rig, with Equinor holding a 40% working interest in PL 554 [3][9] Rig Details - The Deepsea Atlantic is a sixth-generation semi-submersible rig capable of deepwater operations, accommodating nearly 120 personnel and reaching a maximum drilling depth of 10,670 meters [4] - The COSLInnovator rig is designed for harsh environmental conditions, suitable for operations in the North Sea and Norwegian Sea, with a water depth operational capacity of 750 meters [4]