Company Overview - Restaurant Brands International is a multinational quick service portfolio that includes four well-known brands: Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs [2] Growth Strategy - The company's long-term growth algorithm targets annual system sales growth of over 8%, supported by approximately 3% comparable sales growth and around 5% net unit growth over time [2] - A recent joint venture partnership with CPE, a new Burger King master franchisee in China, is expected to enhance net unit growth [2]

You can find original article here Nrn. Subscribe to our free daily Nrn newsletters. The Cheesecake Factory plans to launch its first app in the first half of 2026, president David Gordon told investors during the company’s third-quarter earnings call after market on Tuesday. The app will allow guests to make reservations, see order history and rewards redemption, and let them place off-premises and repeat orders more easily.  “We think there’s good benefits to it,” he said. “We want to create a pr ...

Core Insights - The chain reported a profit of $31.9 million amid a softer operating environment for the restaurant industry [1] Company Performance - The reported profit of $31.9 million indicates the company's ability to maintain profitability despite challenges [1] Industry Context - The operating environment for the restaurant industry is described as softer, suggesting potential headwinds affecting overall performance [1]

Group 1 - Casual chains are facing pressure from activist investors due to struggles in growing traffic and sales as consumer spending declines [3] - Denny's reported a 1.3% decline in domestic same-store sales for Q2, while its sister brand Keke's saw a 4% increase [4] - Denny's is closing underperforming restaurants, with 10 units shut down in Q2, as part of a strategy to optimize the franchise system [4][5] Group 2 - Denny's is enhancing its value proposition to boost guest engagement, including promotions like Buy-One-Get-One Slam for $1 and a limited-time offer of 5 Slams for $5 [6] - A new points-based loyalty program is planned for launch in the second half of 2025 to further increase guest engagement [6] - JCP Investment Management has increased its stake in Denny's to over 9% and aims to discuss opportunities to enhance shareholder value with the board [7]

Market Overview & Trends - Small cap market shows signs of life with a good month-to-date performance versus large caps [2] - The small cap market is considered extraordinarily cheap with a good underlying economic environment [3] - Expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the back half of the year could act as a tailwind [3] - M&A activity has been quiet this year but backlogs are building, expected to materialize in the second half of the year [4] - Consumer spending has been strong, particularly on air travel, but a handoff to other sectors like tech, software, and semiconductors is anticipated [5][6] - Aerospace and defense sectors are performing well, with expectations of more IPO activity in the space sector [7] Company Specific Opportunities - Cheesecake Factory is highlighted as a Gen Z hotspot with good traffic trends expected throughout the summer [8] - Piper is expected to be an M&A story, benefiting from general capital markets recovery and a solid municipal bond business [9] - Site Time is mentioned as a company benefiting from increased connectivity demands within data centers, driven by AI development [15] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Companies have largely adjusted to high interest rates, which have been in place for almost 3 years [10] - Domestic focus of small caps is seen as an advantage, as companies have tightened supply chains and focused on the US market after previous tariff challenges [12][13] - Prior adjustments to semiconductor sourcing mitigate concerns about current tariffs, though future tariffs could potentially cap growth [17][18]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market reacted negatively to rumors of President Trump firing Federal Reserve chief Pal, with longer-term interest rates increasing from 497% to 507% in an hour, and the S&P 500 decreasing from 6,254 to 6,201 [3][4] - The market rallied when the President denied the rumors, indicating that the stock and bond markets do not want Pal ousted [3][5] - The market is questioning whether Trump is wrong about firing Pal, as stocks are supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, but didn't soar when the rumor of Pal's firing surfaced [8] - The consumer price index showed signs of inflation from the President's tariffs, with higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, and even soft drinks [10][11] - The Fed is waiting to see the full impact of tariffs before cutting rates, as the economy is not currently in a slowdown, and employment is at 41% [14][15] Big Banks Earnings Analysis - The big banks' year-to-date gains ranged from 7% for Bank of America to nearly 25% for Goldman Sachs, setting a high bar for earnings season [32] - JP Morgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast by $1 billion, but also raised its expense guidance by $500 million [34][35] - Wells Fargo cut its full-year forecast for net interest income, causing the stock to drop more than 5% [38][39] - Citigroup reported a big top and bottom line beat, with net interest income more than $1 billion above the consensus estimate, and the stock jumped 37% [42] - Bank of America managed a bottom line beat, but missed on the top line due to a nasty net interest income miss [45] - Goldman Sachs had the best report of the big banks, with investment banking up 26% year-over-year, equities trading up 36%, and M&A advisory revenue up 71% year-over-year [48][49] - Morgan Stanley reported healthy top and bottom line beats, with wealth and investment management having $82 trillion in combined total client assets [49] Cheesecake Factory Analysis - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 65% gain over the same period [53] - The company has 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants [54] - The diverse menu eliminates the "no vote" when deciding where to go out to eat, and the wide variety of price points offers value for everyone [57] - Cheesecake Factory's annualized unit volume is $125 million, an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [58] - The company has been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 best places to work for the 12th consecutive year [60] - Recent operational performance and notable results were driven by the company's talented team and ongoing focus on staffing and retention [62] - The company delivered impressive unit level margins of 166% in its most recent quarter, while Wall Street was only looking for 158% [66] - The company is planning to open 25 new locations this year across all their brands, with North Italia's unified at $775 million and Flower Child's at $46 million [67][68] First Horizon Analysis - First Horizon delivered a strong enough quarter to make the stock rally, with a small revenue beat plus a nice 3 cent earnings beat off a 42 cent basis [78][79] - The customer has become very encouraged and confident over the course of the last 90 days, with momentum building across the quarter [81] - The company's CFO said that the high rates has really stifled mortgage originations, but the team has done a really nice job of consolidating market share [86] - Lower rates would actually accelerate growth in the economy, and would have a stimulative effect in the near term [90][91] - There's a real opportunity in the middle market space, and there's a very good place for First Horizon in this space [93][94] Investment Strategy - When a stock starts to go lower, it will often keep going lower until all the people who don't know anything are done selling, and you get a terrific price from their ignorance [113] - If you own a stock and you see it go down, first check the conference call transcript, then put it through a chatbot and ask if anything went wrong that you might have missed [115][116] - If it checks out, then the answer is you need to do some buying on weakness, because the weakness won't last for long [116]

Company Performance - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the SP500's 6.5% gain [1] - The company boasts an annualized unit volume of $12.5 million, considered an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [8] - In the most recent quarter, Cheesecake Factory delivered impressive unit level margins of 16.6%, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of 15.8% [15] Business Strategy & Operations - Cheesecake Factory operates 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants and other concepts like North Italia and Flower Child [3] - The company's menu is known for its extensive selection, featuring roughly 225 different items, including approximately 45 cheesecakes and other desserts [4][5] - Cheesecake Factory aims to retain talent by investing in its workforce, having been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 Best Places to Work for the 12th consecutive year [9][10] - The company makes semi-annual menu changes to stay on top of food trends, adding vegetable-heavy dishes and offering better value to customers [13][14][15] Expansion & Growth - Cheesecake Factory is planning to open 25 new locations across all its brands, with 3-4 being Cheesecake Factories and the rest being other concepts [16] - The company expects to open 6-7 North Italia locations, 6-7 Flower Child locations, and 8-9 FRC restaurants [17] - North Italia's unit volume is $7.75 million, while Flower Child's is $4.6 million [17] Market Outlook & Investment Recommendation - Management remains conservative in its outlook, suggesting the stock might sell off even with a good quarter [19] - Despite strong performance, management's commentary suggests the environment doesn't feel as robust as it did three months ago, with the second quarter revenue outlook coming in below consensus expectations [19][20] - It might be wise to wait and see the latest results before investing, given the stock's recent rally of 30% on very little news [18][21]

This market's got a lot of winners that feel like they came out of nowhere, don't they. I mean, stocks are always checking, trying to figure out what they are. I mean, last night I talked about IMAX.Well, which is making a fortune because it's the best way for struggling movies theaters to sell tickets. Today, I got another one for you. Just kind of popped out of nowhere on my screen.Cheesecake Factory. Yeah, it's up over 31% year to date. Chancing the 6.5% gain the SP500 over the same period.Cheesecake Fac ...