Geopolitical risks remain a negative for stocks. Tuesday evening, President Trump said Iranian officials are "again pursuing their sinister nuclear ambitions," boosting speculation that the US may be preparing a military strike on Iran in the coming days. Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program and gave them a March 1-6 deadline for an agreement over the country’s nuclear activities ...

In Tuesday night's State of the Union address, President Trump doubled down on his commitment to tariffs. President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocal” tariffs last Friday. Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on a formal order to implement that higher rate, but the timeline for its implementation has not been finalized. Mr. Tr ...

Company Overview - Chemed is a diversified services company operating in healthcare and essential home services markets, with a dual-segment model that provides stable revenue streams through hospice care and property maintenance [6] - As of February 12, 2026, Chemed's market capitalization is $6.76 billion, with a revenue of $2.53 billion and a net income of $278.81 million [4] Recent Developments - On February 12, 2026, Barington Companies Management disclosed a new position in Chemed, acquiring 13,000 shares valued at approximately $5.56 million [1][2] - This new position represents 3.65% of Barington Companies Management's reportable U.S. equity assets [8] Financial Performance - Chemed reported third-quarter revenue of $624.9 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, while adjusted diluted EPS decreased by 6.6% to $5.27 [10] - VITAS revenue increased by 4.2% to $407.7 million, with admissions up 5.6% and average daily census up 2.5% [11] - Roto-Rooter revenue grew by 1.1% to $217.2 million, although margins experienced compression [11] - Chemed ended the quarter with $129.8 million in cash and no current or long-term debt, maintaining full-year guidance of $22.00 to $22.30 per share [11] Market Position and Strategy - Chemed operates through two main segments: VITAS for hospice and palliative care services, and Roto-Rooter for plumbing and water restoration services, targeting both healthcare and property maintenance sectors [9] - The company leverages its national network, brand strength, and operational expertise to maintain a competitive position in its core markets [6] - The recent investment by Barington Companies Management adds defensive exposure to Chemed's portfolio, which is primarily focused on consumer and technology sectors [12]

Core Thesis - Chemed Corporation is viewed positively despite recent stock price declines, with a focus on the recovery potential of its hospice business, VITAS, and the overall valuation dislocation in the market [1][5]. Company Overview - Chemed Corporation operates two distinct businesses: VITAS, a hospice and palliative care provider, and Roto-Rooter, a plumbing services company, generating approximately $2.4 billion in revenue and $370 million in operating income [2]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a return on invested capital (ROIC) above 20%, return on equity (ROE) in the high 20s, and a net-cash balance sheet [2]. Recent Performance and Market Sentiment - The stock has declined by about one-third recently, with the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from the mid-20s to around 17x due to a reset in market expectations [3]. - VITAS has faced challenges such as Medicare cap adjustments and management turnover, leading to a significant cut in earnings guidance [3]. Market Outlook - Despite recent setbacks, the hospice market remains attractive due to favorable demographics and Medicare incentives, positioning VITAS for potential revenue growth in the mid- to high-single digits and double-digit operating profit growth in the medium term [3]. - Roto-Rooter is experiencing ongoing challenges from post-COVID normalization and competition, which may limit profitability, but it continues to generate significant cash flow [4]. Valuation Perspective - The current market valuation suggests a pessimistic outlook for VITAS, implying a permanent impairment and minimal future growth potential, which is considered overly negative by analysts [4]. - Chemed's strong free cash flow, disciplined capital returns, and the potential for a valuation rerating as VITAS stabilizes contribute to a favorable risk/reward profile [4].

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today's research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.Top 5 Upgrades: Citi upgraded Enphase Energy (ENPH) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of $37, up from $31. The firm sees limited downside risk in the shares.TD Cowen upgraded Capri Holdings (CPRI) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $32, up from $26. A sharper price point strategy, combined with desirable trend-right s ...

Core Insights - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by approximately 200 points on Wednesday [1] Caterpillar Inc - Caterpillar Inc reported third-quarter financial results that exceeded expectations, with sales and revenues rising by 10% year-over-year to $17.64 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $16.77 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $4.95, exceeding the estimate of $4.52, although slightly lower than $5.17 from the previous year [2] - GAAP profit per share was reported at $4.88, down from $5.06 a year ago [2] - Following the positive results, Caterpillar shares surged by 13.2% to $593.56 [2] Other Notable Stocks - Propetro Holding Corp shares increased by 29.4% to $9.47 after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results [4] - Flowserve Corp gained 24.3% to $65.50 following strong quarterly earnings [4] - Bloom Energy Corp's shares rose by 20.5% to $136.54 after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue [4] - Teradyne Inc's shares increased by 17.7% to $169.87 after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter financial results and providing strong fourth-quarter guidance [4] - United Therapeutics Corp gained 15.3% to $478.78 after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter EPS results [4]

Group 1 - LRT Capital Management's "LRT Global Opportunities Strategy" reported a net return of -8.00% in September 2025, with a year-to-date return of -0.17% [1] - The strategy faced challenges as market indexes surged, particularly driven by a few overvalued mega-cap stocks, while the broader market declined [1] - The fund's top five holdings were highlighted as key picks for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Chemed Corporation (NYSE:CHE) is noted for its unique structure, operating in two non-correlated sectors: hospice care through VITAS and plumbing services through Roto-Rooter [3] - Chemed Corporation's one-month return was 5.91%, but it experienced a significant decline of 25.88% over the past 52 weeks [2] - As of October 6, 2025, Chemed Corporation's stock closed at $435.38 per share, with a market capitalization of $6.344 billion [2]

Investment Strategy Overview - LRT Global Opportunities strategy returned -8.00% in September and -0.17% year-to-date as of October 1, 2025 [4][5] - The strategy focuses on long positions in high-quality companies and short positions in broad market indexes, viewing September's performance as a temporary setback [6] - Current market valuations are at extreme levels, with a trailing P/E ratio over 30x, P/B ratio over 5.6x, and cyclical P/E over 40x, indicating potential future return challenges [7] Company Highlights StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) - StoneX operates as a diversified financial services network, providing execution, clearing, payment, and advisory services across various asset classes [12][13] - The company focuses on underserved client segments, leveraging deep institutional knowledge and a robust global infrastructure [13][14] - StoneX's growth strategy combines organic expansion with strategic acquisitions, enhancing capabilities and geographic reach [14][15] Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) - Simpson is a leader in engineered structural connectors, with products specified in building codes, creating high switching costs for customers [16][17] - The company benefits from a strong distribution network and technical support, reinforcing its market position [18][19] - Demand for Simpson's products is driven by housing construction and stricter building codes due to extreme weather events [19][20] Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) - Asbury operates a diverse portfolio of dealerships, focusing on high-margin parts and service operations for revenue stability [21][22] - The company has a proven track record in strategic acquisitions, enhancing its operational footprint and earnings power [23][24] - Asbury's digital retailing platform, Clicklane, integrates online and in-store experiences, providing a competitive advantage [24][25] Chemed Corp. (CHE) - Chemed operates VITAS Healthcare and Roto-Rooter, benefiting from strong demand in hospice care and plumbing services [26][27] - VITAS is positioned to capitalize on the aging U.S. population, while Roto-Rooter offers recession-resistant services [28][29] - The company has a disciplined capital allocation strategy, returning significant capital to shareholders [29] The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) - TD is a major player in North America's banking sector, with a focus on retail and commercial banking [30][31] - The bank's U.S. retail segment has been a primary growth engine, supported by strategic acquisitions [32] - TD's conservative risk culture and strong capital management contribute to its competitive advantage [34] RLI Corp. (RLI) - RLI is a specialty insurance company known for its underwriting discipline and focus on niche markets [35][36] - The company prioritizes profitability over growth, maintaining a strong alignment of interests through employee ownership [37][38] - RLI has a history of returning excess capital to shareholders, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder value [38] The Toro Company (TTC) - Toro is a leader in turf and landscape solutions, known for its quality and innovation [39][40] - The company has a strong distribution network and a disciplined growth strategy, including strategic acquisitions [41][42] - Toro consistently generates strong free cash flow, which is reinvested in product development and shareholder returns [42] Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) - Crown Castle owns the largest portfolio of shared communications infrastructure in the U.S., primarily macro cell towers [43][44] - The company benefits from long-term lease agreements, providing predictable revenue streams [44][45] - Crown Castle is divesting non-core businesses to focus on its tower portfolio, enhancing shareholder value [46] Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) - CAAP operates 53 airports across six countries, generating revenue from aeronautical and commercial activities [48][49] - The company invests in airport infrastructure to enhance operational efficiency and passenger experience [51] - CAAP is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in global air travel [52] Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) - Colliers is a global leader in commercial real estate services, distinguished by its decentralized structure and entrepreneurial culture [53][54] - The company pursues a balanced growth strategy, focusing on high-margin business lines [56] - Colliers' ownership culture aligns interests with long-term shareholders, enhancing its competitive advantage [54] The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) - Travelers is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance, organized into three primary segments [57][58] - The company benefits from a vast distribution network and strong relationships with independent agents [58][62] - Travelers leverages its scale and data advantages to maintain profitability and manage risks effectively [62] Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) - Petrobras is a major integrated energy producer, controlling significant pre-salt oil reserves [63][64] - The company focuses on maximizing value from its most profitable exploration and production activities [65][66] - Petrobras' performance is closely tied to its operational execution in the pre-salt basins [66] Fabrinet (FN) - Fabrinet specializes in advanced optical packaging and precision manufacturing, serving leading OEMs [67][68] - The company's engineering expertise and focus on complex manufacturing create high switching costs [68][69] - Fabrinet benefits from secular tailwinds in the optical communications market, driven by data traffic growth [69][70] UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) - UnitedHealth is a leading healthcare enterprise, combining health benefits with diversified health services [71][72] - The company's scale provides cost advantages and superior negotiating power in the healthcare market [73][74] - UnitedHealth's integrated model enhances efficiency and patient outcomes, positioning it for continued growth [74] Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR) - Charter is a major connectivity provider in the U.S., focusing on high-speed broadband services [76][77] - The company is upgrading its network to meet increasing bandwidth demands and expanding into underserved areas [79] - Charter's convergence of services, including mobile offerings, enhances customer loyalty and reduces churn [78][79] Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) - Group 1 operates a diversified automotive retail business, focusing on luxury and import brands [80][81] - The company's disciplined acquisition strategy enhances performance and profitability [82] - Group 1's digital retailing platform improves customer experience and operational efficiency [82][83] Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) - Exxon Mobil is a leading integrated energy and chemical manufacturer with a vertically integrated business model [85]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring recession indicators following the first federal funds rate cut of the year, with a struggling housing market and labor market warnings suggesting a potential recession, despite rising stock prices [1] Group 1: Church & Dwight (CHD) - Church & Dwight Co. Inc. is recognized for its essential household and personal care brands, which may provide insulation from a potential recession due to their perceived necessity [2][3] - The company has a long history of dividend increases, with a yield of 1.36% and a conservative payout ratio of 55.66%, making it a potential source of stability during volatile periods [3] - CHD shares have declined over 10% year-to-date, attributed to tariff impacts, but analysts predict a recovery with an upside potential of over 14% [4] Group 2: Spire Inc. (SR) - Spire Inc. is a regional natural gas utility firm expanding through the acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas, which is expected to add over 200,000 customers and contribute to an estimated 8% bottom-line increase in the coming year [5] - The company maintains low operational costs, growing by less than 1% year-to-date, which provides protection against inflation, alongside a dividend yield of 4.08% and a payout ratio of 67.12% [6] Group 3: Chemed Corp. (CHE) - Chemed Corp. operates in home services and healthcare, with its brands Roto-Rooter and Vitas Healthcare providing recession-resistant services [8] - The company faces challenges such as hospice care caps and rising insurance costs, which have pressured CHE shares to their lowest P/E level in over four years, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term strength [9]

Core Thesis - Chemed Corporation (CHE) is viewed positively due to its strong market position in hospice care and plumbing services, with significant growth potential in the hospice market [1][2][5] Business Overview - Chemed operates two main businesses: VITAS, the largest hospice provider in the U.S., contributing 58% of revenue and growing around 9%, and Roto-Rooter, a plumbing service provider, contributing 42% of revenue and growing approximately 1.7% [2] - The U.S. hospice market is projected to grow from $29.9 billion to $39.1 billion by 2030, indicating a strong growth trajectory for VITAS [2] Financial Performance - Chemed generates annual free cash flow between $250 million and $367 million, has no debt beyond leases, and holds $249 million in cash, allowing for opportunistic share repurchases [4] - The stock is currently trading near multi-year lows on P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics, suggesting potential for re-rating as market focus shifts to 2026 earnings [4] Challenges and Mitigation Strategies - Recent stock price decline was attributed to a Medicare cap issue in Florida, which limited revenue recognition for VITAS due to higher state reimbursement rates [3] - Management has strategies in place to address these challenges, including increasing admissions and optimizing patient mix, which are expected to mitigate cap risks and create a $30 million cushion for 2026 [3][4] Market Outlook - The stock is seen as having a compelling risk/reward profile, with a potential upside of 26% as earnings improve, while downside risk is limited to approximately 12% [4] - The operational resilience and financial strength of Chemed support a bullish outlook despite recent short-term headwinds [5]