Core Insights - Etsy shares experienced a significant increase of 610% over a 24-month period leading to their peak in November 2021, but have since declined 81% from that record high due to softer growth in the e-commerce sector [1] Group 1: Growth Challenges - The Etsy marketplace reported $10.5 billion in gross merchandise sales (GMS) in 2025, reflecting a 4% year-over-year decline and a 14% decrease from the record $12.2 billion in 2021, indicating a downward trend since the pandemic [3] - Management anticipates only slight year-over-year growth in GMS for 2026, suggesting limited consumer interest in unique and handcrafted goods [4] Group 2: Capital Management - In 2021, Etsy acquired the secondhand fashion marketplace Depop for over $1.6 billion as part of a strategy to diversify its offerings [5] - Etsy has decided to sell Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion, resulting in a 25% loss in shareholder capital, following other divestitures of Reverb in 2025 and Elo7 in 2023, allowing the company to refocus on its core marketplace under new CEO Kruti Patel Goyal [6] Group 3: Valuation Considerations - Etsy has a network effect with 5.6 million active sellers and 86.5 million active buyers, creating a robust two-sided platform that is difficult for competitors to replicate [8] - The stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 2.3, which is 68% below its historical average, but this alone may not justify investment until consistent revenue and profit growth is observed [9]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's small and mid-cap Internet analyst Nathan Feather is hosting a presentation featuring Etsy's CEO Kruti Patel Goyal and CFO Lanny Baker [1] - The presentation includes important disclosures and encourages attendees to refer to the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website [2]

Summary of Etsy's 2026 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Etsy (NasdaqGS:ETSY) - **Date**: March 03, 2026 - **Key Speakers**: Kruti Patel Goyal (CEO), Lanny Baker (CFO) Core Industry Insights - **Market Position**: Etsy has evolved significantly since its inception, growing from under $500 million in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) in 2011 to over $10.5 billion in GMS in 2025, with a workforce expanding from 200 to nearly 2,000 employees [7][8]. - **Market Opportunity**: Etsy currently captures less than 2% of a total addressable market (TAM) exceeding $650 billion, indicating substantial growth potential [66]. Key Strategic Initiatives 1. **Growth Reacceleration**: The company aims to enhance growth through four main priorities: - Improving visibility in the discovery phase of shopping. - Enhancing matching capabilities between buyers and inventory using machine learning (ML) and large language models (LLMs). - Recognizing and rewarding valuable customers. - Amplifying Etsy's unique value proposition centered on human connection and creativity [10][11][12]. 2. **Recent Performance**: Etsy has shown sequential improvement in GMS growth, moving from a negative 9% in Q1 to positive growth by Q4, driven by enhanced discovery and matching initiatives [13][14]. 3. **User Engagement**: Significant increases in user engagement have been noted, with clicks in the app's discovery feed up 19% year-over-year and 25% in owned marketing channels [14]. 4. **Buyer Growth**: Buyer growth improved by approximately 3% year-on-year in Q4, with a focus on personalized marketing strategies to enhance user retention and frequency of purchases [16][19]. 5. **Mobile App Strategy**: The mobile app is crucial for user retention, with users on the app showing a 40% higher lifetime value (LTV) compared to non-app users. Approximately half of Etsy's customers are not yet using the app, presenting an opportunity for growth [21]. Financial Insights - **Depop Sale**: The recent sale of Depop is expected to provide a cash infusion of about $1.2 billion, which will be allocated for general corporate purposes, including stock repurchases and managing the balance sheet [37][38]. - **EBITDA Margin Guidance**: Etsy anticipates maintaining an EBITDA margin of 28%-30% for the year, allowing for healthy investments in product experience and marketing [39]. Marketing and Advertising Strategy - **Marketing Evolution**: Etsy has shifted marketing focus towards social media and streaming platforms, moving away from traditional TV advertising. The company has seen improved return on investment (ROI) from these channels [62][63]. - **Agentic Commerce**: Etsy is an early mover in agentic commerce, with partnerships with OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft. Initial results show a 15x growth in traffic from these platforms, although it currently represents less than 1% of total traffic [44][45]. Challenges and Opportunities - **Search and Discovery**: Continuous improvement in search and discovery remains a priority, leveraging advancements in AI to better match buyer intent with inventory [30][31]. - **Human Connection**: Research indicates that buyers value the human aspect of Etsy's marketplace. Enhancing visibility of sellers and their stories is seen as a key opportunity for differentiation [54][55]. Underappreciated Aspects - **Cash Flow Production**: Etsy's ability to generate cash flow is considered underappreciated by investors, alongside the transformative potential of AI in improving internal processes and user experiences [69]. Conclusion Etsy is positioned for significant growth through strategic initiatives focused on enhancing user experience, leveraging technology, and capitalizing on its unique market position. The company is committed to improving engagement and retention while navigating the evolving landscape of e-commerce and agentic commerce.

ToplineE-commerce giant eBay, known for second-hand goods, is laying off 800 jobs worldwide, representing about 6% of its workforce, in an effort to “reinvent” its business, the company said in a statement Thursday, just one week after announcing its acquisition of fashion marketplace Depop for $1.2 billion in cash. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Getty ImagesKey FactseBay’s stock is down about 2% year-to-date and about 10% over the past month, based on its price ($85.33) on Thursday morning. It’s un ...

Etsy to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference [Accessibility Statement] Skip NavigationBROOKLYN, N.Y., Feb. 25, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Etsy, Inc. (NYSE: ETSY), which operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect millions of passionate and creative buyers and sellers around the world, today announced that its executives will participate in the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference in San Francisco. There will be a webcasted fireside chat on March 3, 2026 at 4:50 p.m. PST, which inve ...

Core Viewpoint - eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) has shown strong performance in its recent fiscal fourth quarter, with significant revenue and earnings growth, despite a slight year-to-date decline in share price [2]. Financial Performance - eBay reported $2.97 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.88 billion [2]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.41, surpassing expectations of $1.34 [2]. - The company's gross merchandise volume reached $21.2 billion, reflecting a robust 10% annual growth [2]. Market Activity - eBay's shares have increased by 22% over the past year, although they are down by 1% year-to-date [2]. - Morgan Stanley raised eBay's share price target to $112 from $102, maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock [2]. Strategic Moves - eBay announced its decision to acquire used clothes retailer Depop from Etsy, indicating a strategic expansion into the secondhand market [2]. - Jim Cramer highlighted the potential strength of the secondhand market in relation to eBay's performance [2][5].

Core Insights - Etsy Inc. has experienced a decline in momentum ranking, now at the 19.26th percentile, indicating a downward trend in price strength and volatility compared to the broader market [1] - The stock shows negative price trends across all time horizons, reflecting a persistent downward trajectory over recent months and the past year [2] Financial Performance - In the latest financial report, Etsy reported an EPS of $0.92, exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.86, while revenue of $881.64 million slightly missed the consensus of $882.89 million [4] - The core Etsy marketplace achieved a marginal Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) growth of 0.1% in Q4, but analysts remain cautious about future growth prospects [4] Strategic Moves - The sale of Depop is seen as a cash infusion for share repurchases, but it also removes a significant growth asset, raising concerns about Etsy's ability to enhance core marketplace growth [5] - CEO Kruti Patel Goyal is focusing on "human connection" and AI-driven shopping, with AI traffic reportedly growing 15 times year-over-year [6] - Proceeds from the Depop sale will be reinvested into the core platform and fund share buybacks, which are projected to total $777 million in 2025 [6] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Etsy shares have declined by 8.57%, while the S&P 500 index has only decreased by 0.30% during the same period [7] - Over the last six months, the stock has fallen by 8.75%, and it is down 1.63% over the past year [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by Etsy (ETSY), highlighting a decline in engagement and stagnant gross merchandise sales, which suggests a loss of momentum for the company [1] - The author emphasizes the need for more than just initial signs of recovery ("green shoots") to foster optimism regarding Etsy's future performance [1] - The service "Value in Corporate Events" aims to provide actionable insights on major corporate events, including earnings reports and M&A activities, to help investors identify opportunities [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the author may consider initiating a long position in ETSY within the next 72 hours, reflecting a potential shift in investment strategy [2] - There is a focus on establishing greater confidence before making investment decisions at current price levels [3]

Retail and Consumer - Best Buy, Ralph Lauren, and Nike are expected to benefit from the new 15% tariff, which is 4% lower than previous rates, according to Jefferies analysts [1] - Other retailers like Target and Elf Beauty may also see positive impacts from the tariff reduction [1] E-Commerce Companies - Small and midcap e-commerce stocks may experience mixed effects; Etsy is noted to be the most insulated from tariff volatility due to its diversified trade routes [1] - Chewy and Wayfair are expected to be least impacted as they have already adapted to previous tariffs [1] Paper, Lumber, and Packaging - Local packaging and lumber companies may lose their competitive edge due to the new tariffs, with companies like Clearwater Paper and Rayonier flagged for negative impacts [1] - A survey indicated that U.S. buyers reported lower containerboard prices in February, intensifying pricing pressure from increased European imports [1] Automobiles - Legacy automakers such as Ford and General Motors are unlikely to see relief from tariffs, as most tariffs on the industry remain unaffected by the recent ruling [1] Steel, Aluminum, and Copper - Producers in these sectors, including Steel Dynamics and Alcoa, are expected to remain unaffected as tariffs will continue under Section 232 [1] Emerging Markets - China is anticipated to benefit significantly from the tariff changes, with analysts expecting tariff rates to decline from 32% to around 24% and 27% [1] - Other regions like India and Southeast Asia are also expected to see tariff reductions, with estimates of 4-5% for Southeast Asia and a drop to 14% for India [1]

Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling and Market Reactions - The US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's tariffs in a 6-3 decision, leading to a mixed market reaction, with potential relief for industries affected by tariffs [1][2] - Analysts believe the ruling may boost US and global equities, particularly benefiting cyclicals and import-dependent sectors like IT hardware, retail, and industrials [2] - Concerns remain regarding the lack of clarity on tariff refunds, which could create uncertainty in the market [3] Group 2: Key Questions Post-Ruling - Analysts highlight critical questions regarding who will receive tariff refunds, as the burden of tariffs has been shared among US companies, consumers, and foreign exporters [4] - There are concerns about how the government will replace lost tariff revenue, which could impact the deficit and Treasury yields [4] Group 3: Consumer Discretionary Stocks - A list of 14 best consumer discretionary stocks has been compiled, focusing on those with a market capitalization of at least $2 billion and significant hedge fund interest [5][8] - The methodology for selecting these stocks includes filtering for analyst coverage and projected upside, indicating a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities [8][9] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Etsy Inc. reported a revenue growth acceleration to 6.6% YoY in Q4 2025, driven by improved gross merchandise sales (GMS) and a higher take rate of 24.5% [12][14] - Rollins Inc. experienced organic revenue growth of 5.7% in Q4 2025, with management projecting 9% to 11% YoY growth for 2026, despite recent weather-related challenges [15][16] - Rollins aims to improve its EBITDA margin to 25% to 30% by the end of 2026, with a longer-term target of 30% to 35% [17]