刚入行做投研工作时，我的一位师友就教导过我， "投研的起点不是当下市场的主流观点，而是生意本 身。" 起初我觉得这句话非常生涩，因为在当时的我看来，投研的起点难道不应该是哪些行业和个股在风 口上、马上要涨吗？ 历经几轮周期洗礼后，我现在对这句话的理解有所加深。做投研，是要致力于去寻找那些能够买入并且长 期持有的公司，自己在晚上依然可以踏实安睡；与此同时，频繁跟踪和判断市场上的即时"信息"并非必选 项。如果借用段永平的说法"只买未来十年后依然强大的公司"，这个目标的出发点就是研究商业模式（生 意本身），想清楚公司赚的是什么钱、辛苦不辛苦、持续不持续， 商业模式甚至可以说是筛选公司的第 一标准。 很多时候，我们经常会粗浅地认为，因为规模经济性的存在，一家公司会随着其规模增长变得越来越强， 毕竟规模增长会带来单位平均成本的降低。但有的时候，一家公司随着规模增长仅仅是变大了而没有变 强。 过往的投研经历让我们 对增长需要不停开店的生意都保持相对谨慎 。例如一些生意可以线下开到过万家 店，单店模型依然优异，但线性外推需要谨慎，因为前期会有规模效应、品牌势能等，但越过最小规模经 济性后，开店密度、管理半径都可能遇到瓶颈， ...

编译 | 核子可乐、Tina 在今天的 AI 创业圈，你很难找到一个比"护城河"更常被提起，也更令人焦虑的词。 一方面，共识正在形成：新的 AI 应用似乎毫无壁垒。一个开发者团队在一个周末的黑客松里就能拼凑出一个功能相似的 Demo 或一个 AI 智能体，这让 人不禁怀疑——在看似谁都能复制的领域，护城河究竟在哪里？ 但另一方面，这个概念的普及恰恰说明了它的极端重要性。事实上，在 AI 浪潮之前，初创企业创始人远未像现在这样频繁地讨论护城河。其核心直指一 个生存命题：到底是什么，能阻止你陷入无限竞争、利润归零的绝境？ 护城河的本质是一种防御机制。想象一下，你好不容易建起一家公司，城外的竞争者却像"野蛮人"一样兵临城下，虎视眈眈。你唯一能依靠的，便是那 条围绕在城堡外的护城河。 这也是为什么 YC 最近在一档播客中，专门讨论了"人工智能初创企业最强大的护城河"，他们认为这已是许多聪明头脑犹豫创业的关键。在奖学金面试 中，顶尖的学生们一针见血地提问：他们看不出那些新兴的 AI Agent 公司有何护城河。在他们看来，这些产品无异于"ChatGPT 套壳应用"，极易被复 制。没错，你或许能凭借一个巧妙的点子，迅速搭 ...

来源 | 投资实习所 本文为 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读，原文发布于她的 Substack，本篇为直译 改写。 Altimeter Capital 是硅谷顶级科技投资基金，跨越 VC 与二级市场，曾精准押注软件和 AI 浪潮，重仓 OpenAI。2022 年 底，其股东信《Time to get fit》呼吁 Meta 裁员并全面转向 AI，引发硅谷轰动。 Freda Duan 现任 Altimeter 合伙人，公开资料显示她负责 Disruptive Tech 颠覆性科技领域，主攻 AI。 Prediction Market（预测市场）在 2024 年美国大选之后才进入公众视野。在硅谷，推特已被 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 刷 屏。Kalshi 单个周末的数据能让 Robinhood 和 DraftKings 的股价大幅波动。Polymarket 估值高达 $9B，或为史上最高 的"非 AI、零营收"独角兽，投资阵容包括 Trump Jr.、V 神和 Founders Fund。 正如 Freda 原文所说 ...

本文为 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读，原文发布于她的 Substack，本篇为直译改写。 Altimeter Capital 是硅谷顶级科技投资基金，跨越 VC 与二级市场，曾精准押注软件和 AI 浪潮，重仓 OpenAI。2022 年底，其股东信《Time to get fit》 呼吁 Meta 裁员并全面转向 AI，引发硅谷轰动。 Freda Duan 现任 Altimeter 合伙人，公开资料显示她负责 Disruptive Tech 颠覆性科技领域，主攻 AI。 Prediction Market（预测市场）在 2024 年美国大选之后才进入公众视野。在硅谷，推特已被 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 刷屏。Kalshi 单个周末的数据能让 Robinhood 和 DraftKings 的股价大幅波动。Polymarket 估值高达 $9B，或为史上最高的"非 AI、零营收"独角兽，投资阵容包括 Trump Jr.、V 神和 Founders Fund。 科技投资的核心是寻找高速且可持续的增长，而最快往往来自 ...

Jay 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI Python依然是最好的语言。 在刚刚出炉的IEEE Spectrum 2025编程语言排行榜上，Python再次斩获最受欢迎的编程语言。 不仅是冠军，而且是「一骑绝尘」的断崖式领先—— 第二名Java和Python的差距相当悬殊。 更可怕的是，Python仍保持着迅猛的增长速度，一、二名之间的鸿沟还在越拉越大。 Python十连冠 继连续九届蝉联IEEE Spectrum榜首后，Python今年再次发力，拿下了编程语言综合排名榜十连冠。 而且， 这是Python首次在综合排名、增长速度、就业导向等三个板块都问鼎第一，也是IEEE榜单12年来第一个三冠王。 想当年，Python刚出道时就因简洁性闻名遐迩，因此逐渐替代Java成为了高校的教学语言。 随后，NumPy、SciPy、matplotlib、pandas等库相继问世，让Python迅速成长为科研、金融、数据分析领域的王牌。 在这一过程中， 网络效应发挥了巨大作用。 越来越多的程序员选择Python，并基于它开发了各类工具，在开源社区贡献了海量的代码和解决方案，逐渐构建出属于Python的生态护城 ...

Get ready for the stock to reflect that.Today, SoFi Technologies (SOFI -4.05%) is an up-and-coming bank that's growing quickly, and it's already a mid-sized bank. It has caught the attention of smart investors, and SoFi stock is up more than 450% over the past three years.However, it has grand ambitions of becoming a top-10 U.S. financial institution, and I think it can get there within the next decade. Here's how, and what it means for the stock. On the way to the topMost of the largest banks in the U.S. d ...

Core Insights - The growth trajectories of Apple, Microsoft, and Google from 2010 to 2025 show a parallel increase in market value, suggesting a unified growth dynamic despite their different business models [2][3] - Balaji Srinivasan posits that the traditional economy is fading while the internet economy is emerging, marking a significant economic shift [6][10] Group 1: Decline of the Traditional Economy - The traditional economy is characterized by physical entities and linear growth, heavily reliant on capital expenditure and regulatory frameworks [11][12][13] - Key sectors like manufacturing and energy are experiencing stagnation, with U.S. manufacturing worker productivity growth at approximately 2% since 2018, compared to 7% in the tech sector [17][16] Group 2: Rise of the New Economy - The internet economy exhibits exponential growth potential and is driven by network effects, allowing companies like Google and Meta to dominate their markets [20][22] - AI enables small teams to create significant value, with the potential for "one-person companies" to reach valuations of $1 billion [25][26] - The cost of adding users in digital services is negligible, allowing for global scalability without physical constraints [27][28] Group 3: Magnificent Seven as New Productivity Leaders - The "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) now account for about 34% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, up from 12% in 2015 [31] - In 2023, these companies achieved a collective return rate of 75.71%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.23% [32] - Their platforms are integral to modern business activities, positioning them as infrastructure builders in the new economy [37] Group 4: Societal and Market Implications - The transition from traditional to new economy is reshaping societal structures and investment landscapes, presenting both opportunities and risks [40][41] - The concentration of wealth in technology sectors raises concerns about inequality and job losses in traditional industries [42] - The concept of "network states" may emerge, where communities based on shared values operate with their own currencies and governance, potentially replacing traditional nation-states [44][45]

点击上图▲立即收听 " 网约车的意义早已跳出了 ' 把人送到目的地 ' 的工具初心，逐渐发展为将 ' 分散的时间、车辆和劳动力 ' 重新拼接的超级基础设施。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 武夷山特产大红袍， 这 里 几乎家家都有茶园。 像林姐这样的季节性劳动者，是网约车平台为解决劳动力错配重点吸纳的人群。她的出现，也意味着网约车司机的数量和多样性正不断扩大。 长久以来，网约车 行业 都是重要的就业蓄水池和缓冲垫。 一方面，它收纳了产业升级溢出的群体。《报告》显示，近七成被调研司机来自制造业、建筑业、餐饮业等传统蓝领工种；另一方面，新群体不断 涌入，且呈现中年化和女性化趋势。 每年四、五月份是采茶旺季，其余月份农闲。茶农林姐的生活由此被分成两季：茶叶旺季采茶，淡季跑滴滴。跑车一年赚的十几万，是她抵御季节 性农业不确定性的底气。 这样的故事，在无数滴滴司机身上上演。回流县城的下岗工人、突遭变故的城市中产、兼顾家庭的中年女性 ……他们手握方向盘，摸索着人生新 的可能性。 据中国新就业形态研究中心课题组新发布的报告《城市出行的就业韧性：网约车司机就业图景与职业表现（ 2025）》（以下简称《报告》）显 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how entrepreneurs can leverage exponential forces and build network effects to create lasting value in the tech industry [3][4][5] Group 1: The Power of Networks and Network Effects - Many significant internet services are networks that become more valuable as more people use them, exemplified by email and social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram [5][6] - The tech industry benefits from powerful exponential forces, such as Moore's Law, which states that semiconductor performance doubles approximately every two years, leading to rapid advancements [6][7] - Entrepreneurs should focus on identifying these exponential forces, as they will dominate any tactical product work [6][10] Group 2: Strategies for Building Networks - Successful companies often start with a strong product that attracts users, then leverage existing networks to grow, as seen with Instagram and Substack [10][11] - The challenge lies in making networks useful from the beginning, as initial user bases can be small and unappealing [12] - The emergence of "narrow startups" that charge premium prices for specialized services indicates a shift towards more focused business models in the tech landscape [23] Group 3: The Role of Branding and Pricing - Brand power and consumer inertia are significant in the tech sector, as seen with ChatGPT's rapid rise to prominence despite lacking traditional network effects [15][21] - The increasing willingness of consumers to pay higher prices for software suggests a shift in spending priorities, with software potentially consuming a larger share of disposable income [14][21] Group 4: The Impact of AI and Open Source - The rise of AI tools has diminished the need for traditional web traffic, leading to a decline in SEO-driven traffic for many websites [20][21] - Open source software has played a crucial role in democratizing technology, allowing startups to thrive with minimal initial investment [35][36] - The future of open source AI remains uncertain, with potential for it to lag behind proprietary models, but it could provide affordable solutions for consumers [36][37]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights the growing dominance of Chinese solar panel manufacturing in the global market, creating a dilemma for Europe, which relies on Chinese products while advocating for green transformation [1][11] - The shift in energy trade settlement from USD to RMB, particularly between China and Russia, signifies a transfer of control over trading rules and financial systems [3][21] - China's investment in green energy projects globally, including a $8 billion investment in Saudi Arabia and a 6GW solar power plant in Vietnam, illustrates its strategy of creating dependencies through infrastructure development [5][13] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The complete system approach of Chinese companies, moving from merely selling products to providing comprehensive solutions, is reshaping the global energy landscape [6][14] - China holds 68% of global core technology patents in photovoltaics, giving it significant leverage in setting standards and pricing in the industry [8] - The U.S. attempts to impose tariffs on Chinese solar products face challenges due to the interconnectedness of European industries with the Chinese market, leading to a lack of coordinated response [9][18] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of China's investments in strategic resources, such as lithium and cobalt, which are essential for renewable energy technologies [11][25] - The narrative contrasts Western reliance on alliances to mitigate risks with China's strategy of creating dependencies through project investments in developing countries [26][28] - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in the energy sector is characterized as a "silent battle," with the potential for significant shifts in global power dynamics [19][26]