Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) Conference February 23, 2026 03:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsGrant Isaac - President and COOConference Call ParticipantsAlex Pearce - Equity Research Analyst of Metals and MiningGrant IsaacBe here. I thought I would open with a few comments. The reason I'm gonna do this is something funny happened in our Q4 quarterly call. For the first time in 16 years, nobody asked about the spot market or the term market of uranium. Didn't happen. You didn't ask, nobody asked. I don't wanna lose the opp ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the ALPS Nautilus SMR, Nuclear & Technology ETF (SMRF) reflects a growing interest in nuclear power as a solution to increasing electricity demands driven by artificial intelligence and data centers [1] Group 1: ETF Overview - The SMRF ETF offers exposure to companies across the nuclear and small modular reactor value chain while pairing them with leading AI companies [1] - The ETF has a 0.65% expense ratio and employs an active options overlay strategy to generate monthly income and reduce volatility compared to its benchmark [1] - Thematic investing is gaining traction, with advisors seeking diversified exposure to long-term trends, making the addition of this ETF significant [1] Group 2: Nuclear Power Revival - The fund's strategy aligns with a broader shift in energy markets as tech companies look for reliable, carbon-free power sources for energy-intensive operations [1] - Small modular reactors are designed to be modular and can be assembled to meet varying power needs, representing a modern approach to nuclear energy [1] Group 3: Portfolio Construction - Top holdings include uranium miners such as Kazatomprom, Energy Fuels Inc., NexGen Energy, Uranium Energy Corp., and Cameco Corp., along with nuclear technology companies like BWX Technologies and Constellation Energy Corp. [1] - The fund's sector allocations are 40.4% in basic materials, 22% in technology, and 13.1% in industrials, with geographical exposure primarily in the United States (47.6%), Canada (19.2%), and Australia (6.8%) [1] - The options strategy may limit profit potential from sharp increases in underlying securities but offers exposure to the nuclear energy theme with steady income and managed volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Uranium prices have surged over $100 per pound due to supply disruptions, but analysts have mixed opinions on its long-term prospects for 2026, with a structural deficit expected in the future [1][4]. Price Outlook - Spot prices for uranium are projected to peak in January 2026 after a rise of over 25% to above $100 per pound, with the market currently in a minor deficit supported by supply from Central Asia, Canada, and Namibia [2][3]. - Australia's Office of the Chief Economist forecasts spot prices to increase from $73 per pound in 2025 to an average of $91 in 2027 due to demand growth outpacing supply [3]. Supply Disruption - Supply disruptions in 2025 have led to a surge in spot prices, with major producers like Kazatomprom and Cameco reducing production guidance due to weak prices and operational challenges [4]. - The current trading price of uranium is $82 per pound, influenced by a recent increase in supply that has outpaced demand [3]. Market Sentiment - A $80 billion deal to build reactors in the US has positively influenced market sentiment, with prices rising to over $83 following a World Nuclear Association report predicting a tripling of global nuclear capacity by 2050 [8]. - The US plans to quadruple its domestic nuclear capacity, while China aims to add 150 nuclear reactors in the next 15 years, indicating a strategic shift towards nuclear energy [10]. Production Forecasts - Kazakhstan's uranium production is expected to increase by 5% in 2026, while Canada anticipates a 12% rise as development delays ease [12]. - Namibia's production is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year, contributing to the overall supply landscape [12]. Investment Dynamics - Investment vehicles like the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust have removed significant quantities of uranium from circulation, tightening availability amid geopolitical fragmentation [13]. - The demand for uranium is experiencing a genuine step-change, supported by both public and private investments [13]. Future Gains - Further price increases in 2026 are likely to stem from strong retail demand and policy support, with investment trusts stockpiling uranium that may not be used for nuclear energy [14]. - The US government may recognize uranium as a critical material, which could enhance market sentiment and increase contracting volumes [15][16].

Core Insights - Cameco has experienced a significant recovery in its business after a decade of struggles post-Fukushima, with revenue increasing from $1.5 billion in 2021 to $3.1 billion in 2024, and uranium's spot price rebounding to approximately $94 per pound [2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - From 2011 to 2021, Cameco's revenue fell from $2.4 billion to $1.5 billion due to reduced nuclear expansion plans globally [1] - The company has turned profitable again in 2022, 2023, and 2024 after years of net losses [2] - Cameco's stock surged over 620% in the past five years, reflecting the positive market dynamics for uranium [3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - In 2021, Cameco increased its stake in Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) from 24% to 49%, aiming to integrate laser-based uranium enrichment into its operations [4] - In 2023, Cameco partnered with Brookfield Asset Management to acquire a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, enhancing its position in the nuclear power infrastructure market [5] - The company is expected to pursue further acquisitions to diversify its business and reduce reliance on uranium mining [6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) projects that global nuclear capacity will increase by 2.6 times from 2024 to 2050, which is expected to drive uranium prices higher [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Kazatomprom's uranium production increased by 10% quarter-on-quarter to 7,130 tons U3O8, and by 9% year-on-year [1] - The company's uranium sales volume for Q4 2025 was 5,719 tons U3O8, reflecting an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [1] - The average realized price for the group in Q4 2025 was $68.85 per pound, which is nearly flat quarter-on-quarter but down 8% year-on-year [1] - The average spot price at the end of Q4 2025 was $79.12 per pound, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 3% year-on-year [2] Production Guidance for 2026 - Kazatomprom's nominal production for 2026 has been revised down from 32,777 tons to 29,697 tons, a reduction of approximately 3,000 tons or 10% [3] - The expected production range for 2026 is between 27,500 and 29,000 tons U3O8 [3] - The company's attributable production for 2026 is projected to be between 14,500 and 15,500 tons U3O8 [3] - Group sales volume for 2026 is expected to be between 19,500 and 20,500 tons U3O8, including KAP's sales volume of 13,100 to 14,100 tons U3O8 [3][8] Production Growth Drivers - The year-on-year production growth is primarily attributed to capacity enhancements at the joint venture Budenovskoye mine, with 100% of its production pre-booked under previously disclosed contracts from 2024 to 2026 [4]

Summary of Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) FY Conference Call - January 22, 2026 Industry Overview - The nuclear industry fundamentals are reported to be stronger than ever, with increasing demand for uranium driven by the revival of nuclear reactors and new constructions globally [2][10] - There are over 60 gigawatt-scale reactors currently under construction worldwide, with significant potential for further developments in 2026 [3][4] Demand Insights - Nuclear demand is projected to rise due to the reactivation and extension of existing reactors, as well as the construction of new reactors [3][4] - The base case demand for uranium is believed to be understated, as it does not account for several significant projects, including a recent $80 billion initiative to build 10 reactors in the U.S. [4][5] - The demand for uranium is also expected to increase from naval propulsion and potential applications in AI and hyperscalers, which are not included in current demand forecasts [5] Supply Dynamics - The supply of uranium is considered overstated, with many projects not operating at full capacity due to insufficient uranium prices [6][9] - The secondary supply, historically significant, is now limited, particularly due to the absence of Russian supply in the Western market [7][8] - The planned production line is also overstated, as preliminary economic assessments are often not realized within the projected timelines [8] Contracting and Pricing Strategy - The uncovered requirements for utilities have never been larger, indicating a strong future demand for uranium [9][10] - The long-term price of uranium is currently at $86 per pound, which is seen as insufficient to convert more resources into reserves [12][19] - The market is shifting towards higher price expectations, with indications that the midpoint of market-related contracts is around $115 per pound [14][16] Strategic Positioning - Cameco is maintaining a disciplined production strategy, not running all assets at full capacity to capture demand at favorable terms [15][19] - The company is focusing on off-market contracts and has significant sovereign demand, indicating a robust pipeline of future contracts [17][19] - Cameco's vertical integration from reactor construction to fuel supply allows for early engagement in the supply chain, enhancing its strategic position [30] Enrichment Strategy - Cameco is exploring opportunities in the enrichment space, particularly with Global Laser Enrichment, while being cautious about trade policies and the potential return of Russian enrichment to the market [31][34] - The company is focused on a project to re-enrich depleted UF6 tails, which could yield significant uranium supply without competing directly in the enrichment market [33] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the nuclear industry's revival, with Cameco well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated demand surge and favorable market conditions [20][31]

Core Insights - The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF has increased by 75% over the past year, rising from approximately $84 in January 2025 to $146.60 currently, with total assets of $3.6 billion, focusing on uranium miners and nuclear utilities due to a renewed interest in carbon-free energy sources [1] Fund Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include Cameco at 8.6%, Constellation Energy at 6.6%, and uranium miners such as Uranium Energy Corp and Denison Mines, with 45% of the portfolio in uranium mining and enrichment companies and 20% in nuclear utilities [2] Uranium Price Dynamics - The performance of the ETF is closely tied to uranium prices, which have risen from around $90 per pound in early 2025 to nearly $100 recently, influenced by supply constraints and increased demand from reactors [3] - Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom has indicated production challenges, while Western utilities are seeking long-term contracts outside of Russian supply chains, which could further impact uranium prices [3] Price Volatility - Uranium prices are known for their volatility; the last spike above $100 per pound occurred in 2022, followed by a decline due to lagging reactor restarts and inventory absorption [4] - Investors are advised to monitor monthly uranium spot price reports, as a sustained price above $100 could support current valuations, while a drop towards $80 may negatively affect the miners in the ETF [4] Holdings Performance Divergence - There is a notable divergence in the performance of the ETF's holdings, with Uranium Energy Corp increasing by 164% over the past year, while Constellation Energy has decreased by 6%, indicating different pressures faced by uranium miners and nuclear utilities [5] - The fund's 36% annual turnover suggests active management, with potential shifts in exposure between miners and utilities based on market conditions [5] Alternative Investment Options - For investors seeking concentrated uranium exposure, Sprott's URNM ETF offers a more focused investment with 90% in uranium miners and physical uranium, compared to the broader approach of VanEck's ETF [6] Key Monitoring Factors - The primary factor to watch is the momentum of uranium spot prices above $100 per pound, along with the ETF's rotation between miners and utilities as reactor construction timelines become clearer [7]

Core Viewpoint - Laramide Resources Ltd. has decided to terminate its Option Agreement for the Chu-Sarysu Basin uranium Project in Kazakhstan due to significant legislative changes that have diminished the economic viability of foreign investment in uranium exploration in the country [2][6][8]. Company Summary - The Option Agreement, signed in September 2024, provided Laramide with access to 22 Subsoil Use licenses in the Chu-Sarysu Basin, a region recognized for its potential in uranium and other critical minerals [3][8]. - In 2025, Laramide conducted a historical data review and ground reconnaissance, identifying potential drill targets for uranium mineralization, but faced delays in obtaining necessary drilling permits, preventing any drilling from occurring in Q4 2025 [4][8]. - Legislative changes signed into law on December 26, 2025, increased the minimum ownership of newly discovered uranium resources by Kazatomprom, effectively reducing the attractiveness of new uranium discoveries for foreign companies [5][6][8]. Industry Summary - The recent amendments to Kazakhstan's Subsoil Use legislation are seen as a move towards nationalization of uranium exploration, which could deter foreign investment and exploration efforts in the country [6][9]. - Kazatomprom, the national uranium company, is facing a significant resource renewal challenge, with projections indicating a rapid decline in their resource base, potentially exhausting their reserves by 2057 [9][13]. - The uranium sector is perceived to be under-invested in greenfield exploration, which may necessitate higher uranium prices to incentivize reserve replacement and address the growing supply deficit [13].

Group 1: Company Overview - Cameco Corporation is a leading low-cost uranium producer with a strong long-term outlook driven by structural supply constraints and increasing global nuclear demand [2][3] - The company operates tier-1 mines in Canada, producing some of the highest-grade uranium globally, which provides a durable competitive advantage due to long life spans and low operating costs [2][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The uranium market is structurally undersupplied, with reactor demand consistently outpacing mine production, creating favorable conditions for Cameco [3][5] - Key drivers for nuclear energy include Japan's reactor restarts, China's rapid construction of new reactors, and Europe's reconsideration of nuclear energy as part of its energy transition [3] Group 3: Competitive Position - Cameco's main competitor, Kazatomprom, faces geopolitical and supply-chain risks due to its operations in Kazakhstan, while Western utilities prefer secure and transparent suppliers, enhancing Cameco's market position [4] - Catalysts for Cameco's stock include multi-year utility contracts, rising uranium prices, and potential supply disruptions at competitors, which could significantly boost earnings and cash flow [4] Group 4: Investment Thesis - Despite risks such as uranium price volatility and operational disruptions, Cameco's cost advantage, high-grade assets, and exposure to increasing nuclear demand present a strong risk/reward profile for long-term investors [5] - The company is viewed as a highly attractive opportunity for those seeking upside in the energy transition and a structurally advantaged commodity [5][6]

Industry Overview - Nuclear energy is experiencing a resurgence in the United States due to increased demand driven by artificial intelligence, favorable government policies, and shifting public perception [1] - Investments in nuclear power are long-term commitments, as building new reactors takes years and their operational lifespan can extend up to 80 years [2] Company Analysis: Cameco - Cameco is the second-largest uranium miner globally, producing 17% of the world's uranium consumed in 2024 [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $49 billion and a current stock price of $116.38, with a gross margin of 26.65% and a net income margin of 15.18% [5][6] - Cameco's revenue has a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.18%, and its stock has increased by 124% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 [6] - The annual dividend is $0.17 per share, yielding 0.16%, which is considered low for a dividend stock despite a history of slight growth over the past two years [6][12] Company Analysis: Duke Energy - Duke Energy operates 11 nuclear reactors across six plants in the Carolinas and has a diverse energy production portfolio [8] - The company has a market capitalization of $92 billion and a current stock price of $119.22, with a gross margin of 32.12% and a net margin of 15.97% [9][10][11] - Duke Energy's revenue has a three-year CAGR of 5.29%, which is slower than Cameco's, but it maintains a strong dividend yield of 3.65% with an annual dividend of $4.26 per share [11][12] - The southern U.S. is experiencing significant population growth, which is expected to drive demand for Duke's power services [10]