Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The lithium business at Greenbushes experienced a production decrease of 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 21% year-on-year (YoY), with Q3 2025 production at 320,000 tons and sales at 301,000 tons, reflecting a 27% QoQ and 23% YoY decline in sales [1][2] - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, showing a 1% increase QoQ [1] - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant saw a production increase of 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with Q3 2025 production at 2,775 tons and sales at 2,921 tons, marking a 68% QoQ increase [2][3] - The unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate rose by 6% QoQ to A$388 per ton, reflecting a 40% increase YoY [2][3] - The Nova nickel project reported a production decrease of 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with Q3 2025 nickel production at 3,429 tons and sales at 3,320 tons [6] - The average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while the unit cash cost increased by 72% to A$6.84 per pound [6] Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 320,000 tons in Q3 2025, down 6% QoQ and 21% YoY, with sales of 301,000 tons, down 27% QoQ and 23% YoY [1][2] - Average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, up 1% QoQ [1] - Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,775 tons, up 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with sales of 2,921 tons, up 68% QoQ [2][3] - Unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate increased to A$388 per ton, up 6% QoQ and 40% YoY [2][3] Nickel Business - Nova project produced 3,429 tons of nickel, down 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with sales of 3,320 tons, down 5% QoQ and 1% YoY [6] - Average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while unit cash cost rose to A$6.84 per pound, up 72% [6] Financial Performance - Company revenue for Q3 2025 was A$105.3 million, down 17% QoQ and 26% YoY, primarily due to reduced copper shipments and lower nickel prices [7] - The underlying EBITDA for Nova project was A$24.9 million, down 50% QoQ [7]

Group 1 - Recent reports indicate that Xie Honghe, the deputy director of the research institute at Zhongtai Securities and chief analyst for the non-ferrous metals industry, is leaving his position [2] - On August 7, it was reported that Xie Honghe may take on the role of director at the research institute of Great Wall Securities [2] - Xie Honghe holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Xi'an Jiaotong University and a master's degree in finance from City University of Hong Kong, with over ten years of research experience in the non-ferrous metals industry [3] Group 2 - Xie Honghe has previously worked as an analyst in the non-ferrous metals sector at several firms, including Guotai Junan Securities, Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities, and CITIC Construction Investment [3] - He has received multiple accolades as the "Best Analyst in the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry" in rankings such as New Fortune and Crystal Ball [3] - In August 2017, Xie Honghe apologized for plagiarizing a UBS report, acknowledging that he had used content from a UBS research report without proper authorization [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [7] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, copper production totaled 154.7 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.8%. This was primarily due to increased output from the Los Pelambres and Centinela mines [2][13] - Copper sales reached 170.2 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.3% [2][13] - The realized copper price was $4.69 per pound, up 18.1% year-on-year and 25.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][14] - The net cash cost for copper was $1.54 per pound, a decrease of 20.2% year-on-year but an increase of 25.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][13] - Gold production was 42.9 thousand ounces (1.33 tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 28.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.1% [4][13] - The realized gold price was $3,098 per ounce, up 42.4% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][14] - Molybdenum production was 3,100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.7% [5][13] - The realized molybdenum price was $19.3 per pound, down 8.5% year-on-year and 10.2% quarter-on-quarter [5][14] Production and Cost Summary - The total copper production for Q1 2025 was 154.7 thousand tons, with a cash cost before by-product credits of $2.37 per pound [13] - The total gold production for Q1 2025 was 42.9 thousand ounces, with a realized price of $3,098 per ounce [4][14] - The total molybdenum production for Q1 2025 was 3,100 tons, with a realized price of $19.3 per pound [5][14] Project Development Updates - The Centinela Phase II project is progressing as expected, focusing on assembling mining equipment and completing concrete work for the foundations of the mills [8] - The Los Pelambres expansion project is also on track, with ongoing work on the concentrate pipeline and seawater desalination plant [9] - The Cachorro exploration project submitted an environmental impact statement in January 2025 for additional exploration work [10] 2025 Outlook - The annual copper production target remains unchanged, expected to be between 660,000 and 700,000 tons [11] - The cash cost guidance remains unchanged, with costs before and after by-product credits expected to be between $2.25-$2.45 and $1.45-$1.65 per pound, respectively [11] - Capital expenditure guidance remains at $3.9 billion [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].