Key TakeawaysDingdong's decision to sell its domestic operations to Meituan highlights the brutal reality of China's instant commerce price warsIndia's rejection of a Chinese private equity investment in an Italian firm signals a new era of global protectionism over advanced technologyImage Credit: Bamboo WorksIn this kind of business, it's all about scale. To grow market share, companies offer incentives and cut prices, prompting their rivals to jump in and do exactly the same. We've seen similar price war ...

February 15, 2026 05:35 PM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific FY25 Profit Warning What's new: Meituan announced a profit warning for FY25: (1) IFRS NP loss range of Rmb23.3-24.3bn, (2) CLC OP loss of Rmb6.8-7bn due to increasing investments to combat intense competition. The company expects the loss-making trend to continue into 1Q26. Our view: The guidance is largely in-line with consensus for IFRS NP of Rmb-23bn, while the CLC OP loss was slightly better than expected vs MSe/cons at Rmb-8bn for FY25. This implies ...

Core Insights - Amazon and Alibaba are the two largest players in e-commerce and cloud computing, both investing heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure, making a comparison relevant for investors [1] Group 1: Amazon (AMZN) Overview - Amazon's Q4 2025 results showed net sales of $213.4 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in North America, International, and AWS [2] - AWS reported a 24% revenue growth, its fastest in 13 quarters, with an annualized run rate of approximately $142 billion and a backlog of $244 billion, indicating strong demand [3] - Amazon's capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $200 billion, primarily for AWS and AI infrastructure, reflecting confidence in long-term returns [4] Group 2: Alibaba (BABA) Overview - Alibaba's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenues reached RMB 247.8 billion, a modest 5% year-over-year increase, while non-GAAP diluted earnings fell 71% due to heavy investments [5] - The Cloud Intelligence Group achieved 34% revenue growth, with AI-related products showing triple-digit gains for nine consecutive quarters, but faces challenges from U.S. chip export restrictions [6] - Alibaba's quick commerce business grew revenues by 60%, but incurred significant losses, leading to a RMB 21.8 billion free cash flow outflow [8] Group 3: Valuation and Performance Comparison - Alibaba's stock increased by 28.3% over the last six months, outperforming Amazon's 14.1% decline, but this is attributed to recovery rather than fundamental strength [10] - Alibaba's price-to-sales ratio is 2.29x, significantly lower than Amazon's 2.61x, reflecting Amazon's superior market position and predictable cash flows [14] - Amazon's premium valuation is justified by its stronger growth prospects, lower regulatory risks, and better forward guidance compared to Alibaba [17]

Takeaways from China Internet expert call Douyin's local service eyes 40% growth in FY26E on deeper penetration in lower tier markets and hotel booking Nomura's China internet team is hosting its 2026 China Internet Insight expert call series from 28 January to 6 February 2026. Industry experts from various internet sectors have been invited to share their insights on the outlook for 2026E. We believe the information from industry experts could help our clients make better-informed investment decisions. (Pl ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia ex Japan market, particularly highlighting the performance of various sectors and companies within this region, including China, Taiwan, Korea, and ASEAN countries [1][2][3]. Core Insights 1. **Style Rotation in China**: In early February, there was a notable style rotation in China, with a rebound in Low Risk and Value stocks, while Momentum stocks began to unwind from their peaks [1]. 2. **Earnings Revision Trends**: Earnings revisions are increasing in Taiwan, while Korea experienced a dip in mid-January but has since rebounded. In China and ASEAN, earnings revisions have plateaued after declining from their peaks [2]. 3. **Market Concentration**: The top five companies in the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan index now account for 33% of the index weight, the highest concentration since 2000. This high concentration could lead to increased volatility in Value and Price Momentum as these holdings unwind [3][52]. 4. **Sector Performance**: The Information Technology sector shows the best earnings momentum across the region, while the performance of Value and Price Momentum remains volatile [2][24]. 5. **Crowding Scores**: The report highlights crowding scores for various sectors, indicating that defensive sectors are less crowded compared to cyclical sectors, which are more crowded on the long side [38][39][48]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Earnings Momentum**: Year-to-date, both price and earnings momentum have performed well compared to other factors, although Price Momentum faced volatility in late January and early February [1][18]. 2. **Regional Contributions**: Korea and Taiwan were significant contributors to the total return in MSCI AxJ, accounting for 84% of the +8.2% total return in January [30]. 3. **Stock Connect Flows**: There was a net inflow of US$8.9 billion into Hong Kong via Southbound Connect in January, indicating renewed interest in the market [77]. 4. **Sector Contributions**: The report provides detailed sector contributions to long-short factor returns, with Financials and Consumer Discretionary showing notable performance in the Asia ex Japan region [19][21]. 5. **Investment Strategies**: The report discusses the effectiveness of AH Pairs Trading strategies, indicating that a relative approach can yield robust performance [81][84]. Conclusion The Asia ex Japan market is experiencing significant shifts in style and sector performance, with a focus on the implications of market concentration and earnings revisions. Investors should be aware of the potential volatility stemming from concentrated holdings and the performance of key sectors like Information Technology and Financials.

Core Viewpoint - DirectBooking Technology Co., Ltd. has entered into share purchase agreements with prominent investors to support its long-term strategy of digital transformation in traditional industries and the creation of a digital ecosystem for premium customized baijiu [1] Investment Details - The financing round is characterized as a strategic alliance rather than just a financial capital injection, aimed at accelerating the expansion of DirectBooking Technology's hotel AI booking platform [2] Investor Profiles - Yao Jinbo, Chairman and CEO of 58.com Group, is recognized for his foresight in the internet industry and has a diverse investment portfolio focusing on structural growth sectors [3] - Wang Donghui, Founding Managing Partner of Amiba Capital, has a background in technology and internet venture investment, previously serving as CFO of Kingsoft [4][5] - Li Daxue, founder of Magcloud Group and former Senior Vice President of JD.com, brings over 20 years of experience in industrial internet and digital transformation, enhancing collaboration in AI content and data analytics [6] Strategic Implications - The new investors collectively bring decades of experience in internet operations, technology investment, and industrial digitalization, which will enhance DirectBooking Technology's competitive advantage in the premium customization market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dingdong (Cayman) Limited plans to use a substantial majority of the proceeds from the sale of its China operations for share repurchases and/or dividends to shareholders upon closing the transaction with Meituan [1][2] Group 1: Transaction Details - Dingdong has entered into a definitive Share Purchase Agreement with Two Hearts Investments Limited, a subsidiary of Meituan, to sell all issued and outstanding shares of Dingdong Fresh Holding Limited for a cash consideration of US$717 million [1] - The company expects to receive up to US$997 million in cash proceeds from the transaction, subject to adjustments based on net cash and working capital thresholds [1] - The final adjusted consideration will be paid in two installments: 90% at closing and the remaining 10% after tax settlements related to the transaction [1] Group 2: Conditions for Closing - The transaction is subject to various conditions, including shareholder approval, anti-monopoly clearance from the State Administration for Market Regulation of China, and completion of necessary tax filings [1][2] - Specific conditions include the completion of a pre-closing inventory check, obtaining consents from loan institutions, and passing resolutions by the boards and shareholders of Dingdong BVI and Dingdong Cayman [2] Group 3: Future Plans - Upon successful closing of the transaction, the company intends to utilize not less than 90% of its cash balance for share repurchase plans and/or dividends, with terms to be determined post-closing and subject to board approval [1] - There is no assurance that the transaction will close or that any share repurchase plans or dividends will be executed [1]

Summary of Meituan's Acquisition of Dingdong China Business Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services, specifically focusing on on-demand grocery delivery Key Points from the Conference Call Acquisition Details - Meituan announced the acquisition of Dingdong China business for a total of **US$717 million**, which includes **US$150 million** in net cash from Dingdong [3][5] - Dingdong will become an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Meituan and will be consolidated into Meituan's financials [3] Dingdong's Business Model - Dingdong operates as a leading fresh grocery e-commerce player under a **1P business model** with over **1,000 front warehouses (dark stores)** in China [4] - The company provides **30-minute delivery** to households within a **1 km radius**, covering **25+ cities** with a core focus in Eastern China [4] - Dingdong has over **7 million monthly transacting users**, with a significant presence in Shanghai [4] Financial Metrics - The deal implies Dingdong's enterprise value (EV) at approximately **US$570 million** or **Rmb4 billion**, with an estimated LTM EBITDA of **Rmb400 million**, resulting in a **10x EV/EBITDA** ratio [5][11] - Dingdong has shown sustained profitability over the last **12 quarters** on a non-GAAP basis [5] Strategic Implications for Meituan - The acquisition is viewed positively as it creates synergies with Meituan's existing **Xiaoxiang Supermarket** franchise, which is a top player in online grocery [6][11] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket operates around **1,000 dark stores** across **20+ cities** in China, with a strong presence in Beijing and Shenzhen [6] - The acquisition is expected to widen Meituan's footprint in Eastern China and secure market share in the **1P on-demand grocery delivery** segment, although the market size is noted to be smaller compared to the **3P model** [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - Meituan's stock rating is currently **Overweight** with a price target of **HK$120.00**, indicating a potential upside of **28%** from the current price of **HK$93.80** [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from an uptrend in the food delivery market, with expectations of margin improvement and further monetization of merchant ARPU [16] Risks Identified - Potential risks include intensified competition in food delivery and quick commerce, low visibility on loss-making initiatives, and weaker-than-expected macroeconomic conditions [16] Additional Important Information - The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval, and the timeline for completion is not specified [3] - Meituan's market capitalization is currently **US$74,744 million** with an average daily trading value of **US$875 million** [8]

Dingdong (Cayman) has signed a definitive agreement to divest its China operations to a Meituan subsidiary for $717m. The grocery e-commerce group will sell all issued and outstanding shares of Dingdong Fresh Holding, its British Virgin Islands (BVI)-incorporated vehicle, to Meituan subsidiary Two Hearts Investments. Its international activities are excluded and will remain with the company following a pre-closing reorganisation. Dingdong’s board has approved the transaction. Completion is contingent ...

Core Viewpoint - Dingdong (Cayman) Limited has entered into a definitive Share Purchase Agreement with Two Hearts Investments Limited, a subsidiary of Meituan, to sell its China business for a total cash consideration of US$717 million, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals [1][4][10]. Transaction Details - The transaction involves the sale of all issued and outstanding shares of Dingdong Fresh Holding Limited, which encompasses the majority of Dingdong's operations in China, while the international business will be retained by Dingdong [2]. - The total cash consideration of US$717 million is based on the balance sheet as of December 31, 2025, and is subject to adjustments based on net cash and working capital [4][5]. - The payment structure includes 90% payable at closing and the remaining 10% after the settlement of applicable taxes [5]. Management Insights - The CEO of Dingdong emphasized the company's commitment to enhancing consumer quality of life through digital technology and supply chain innovation, aligning with Meituan's mission [6][7]. - The CFO highlighted the transaction as a validation of Dingdong's supply chain strengths and brand values, reflecting high recognition in capital markets [8]. Closing Conditions - The transaction is subject to various customary conditions, including shareholder approval and anti-monopoly clearance from the State Administration for Market Regulation of China [3][10]. - The company will operate the Target Company in the ordinary course of business during the transition period, with any profits or losses accruing to the buyer [14]. Non-Competition and Exclusivity - A five-year non-competition agreement has been established, preventing Dingdong and its founder from engaging in similar business within Greater China post-closing [14]. - The company is bound by a "no-shop" obligation, prohibiting solicitation of alternative acquisition proposals during the transition period [14].