Core Viewpoint - Huaxi Securities maintains its previous profit forecast for Pop Mart, projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a "buy" rating on the stock [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Expected revenues for Pop Mart from 2025 to 2027 are 38.384 billion, 52.768 billion, and 65.698 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 13.291 billion, 18.599 billion, and 23.91 billion CNY [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.91, 13.86, and 17.82 CNY for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 16, and 12 times [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The 2026 theme conference highlighted key achievements from 2025, emphasizing the importance of "beauty and design" in the company's mission to provide spiritual comfort [2] - The company plans to focus on operational details and expand landmark stores while incubating new businesses in overseas markets [2] Group 3: Product Performance - New products have shown strong performance, with significant growth in sales on domestic platforms like Douyin, particularly for new series launched for the Spring Festival [3] - The company has partnered with Simon Property Group to open over 20 new retail stores across the U.S., indicating a robust channel expansion strategy [3] Group 4: Brand Ecosystem - Pop Mart is expanding its brand universe beyond toys into areas like amusement parks, desserts, jewelry, and entertainment [4] - The company is developing its amusement park, with the second phase expected to double the area of the first phase, and has launched its dessert brand in multiple cities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company held its annual meeting on February 6, outlining strategic directions for 2026 and highlighting significant achievements from 2025. The company expects strong performance in the new year, driven by new product launches and the long-term commercial value of its IP operation platform [2][3] - The company anticipates substantial revenue growth, with LABUBU's annual sales expected to exceed 100 million units and total product sales across all categories projected to surpass 400 million units in 2025. The average price of products is over 100 yuan [3] - The company is expanding its business to over 100 countries and regions, with more than 700 global stores, and has solidified its supply chain capabilities with six major supply chain bases [3] - New products have performed well, with significant growth in GMV on domestic platforms like Douyin. The company has launched several new series, which are expected to support strong performance in the new year [4] - The company is diversifying its IP portfolio, establishing a "Pop Mart brand universe" that includes amusement parks, desserts, jewelry, and entertainment [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 38.38 billion, 52.77 billion, and 65.70 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit estimates for the same period are 13.29 billion, 18.60 billion, and 23.91 billion yuan, with EPS expected to be 9.91, 13.86, and 17.82 yuan [6][8] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 71% in the forecast period, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 22 to 12 over the same period [8]

Consumer Sentiment & Economic Impact - University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers are not strong three weeks before Black Friday [1] - Low consumer sentiment is observed, but upper-middle and luxury consumer spending remains strong [2] - Government shutdown negatively impacts lower to middle-income consumers, widening the K-shaped economy [3] Retail & Inventory - Overall inventory levels appear to be in good shape, with some inventories brought in early to manage tariff impacts [5] - Managing margins against higher costs due to tariffs will be a headwind in the first half of 2026 [5] - Promotions are not significantly increasing heading into Black Friday, and Amazon Prime Day in October was solid but not exceptionally strong [6][7] Value & Off-Price Retail - Lower-income consumers are focusing on necessities and value pricing [7] - Value is constituted by brand and price, with off-price retailers, Walmart, and Costco representing value options [8] - Retail real estate landlords are seeing strength in leasing from value players [9]

Core Insights - Simon has opened Jakarta Premium Outlets in Indonesia, marking its first Premium Outlet in the country and the eighth globally [1][5] - The outlet spans over 302,000 square feet and features more than 150 global and local brands, including luxury and premium labels [2][3] - The center is strategically located in Tangerang, near Jakarta, with access to major highways and proximity to Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, enhancing customer convenience [4] Company Overview - Simon is a real estate investment trust focused on premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations [1] - Jakarta Premium Outlets is a subsidiary of Simon Genting Pte. Ltd., a joint venture with Genting Plantations Berhad [5] - The company operates successful luxury outlet shopping experiences globally, including locations in the United States, Japan, and Malaysia [6][7] Market Strategy - The opening aligns with Simon's international growth strategy, aiming to provide exceptional value to shoppers while embracing local culture [3] - The outlet is designed with architectural elements inspired by the Indonesian archipelago, featuring natural cooling and relaxation spaces [3] - The center serves the Greater Jakarta area, targeting a metro population of over 33 million [3][4]