Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Sportswear** industry, particularly the performance and outlook of major brands including **Nike**, **Anta**, **Topsports**, and **Li Ning** [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Nike's Market Position**: Nike retains its No.1 ranking in both "intent to purchase" and "most innovative brand" categories, despite a slight decline of 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [2][3]. - **Anta's Performance**: Anta's Net Promoter Score (NPS) increased by 11 points QoQ, moving from 10 to 4 in rankings, indicating a solid brand equity among Chinese consumers [3][10]. - **Topsports' Recovery**: Anticipated support from Nike, due to organizational changes, is expected to aid Topsports in recovering sales, which are heavily reliant on Nike products (50-60% of sales) [3][4]. - **Promotional Environment**: 65% of survey respondents noted an increase in promotional activity for sports footwear and clothing, up from 60% in September [19][20]. Financial Performance and Projections - **Anta's Sales Guidance**: Anta is expected to meet its full-year retail sales guidance, projecting low single-digit year-over-year growth for its business [3][4]. - **Topsports Valuation**: The target price for Topsports shares is set at HK$3.75, based on a 16x calendarized year 2025E P/E, reflecting a 45% discount to Nike's historical trading P/E [40][42]. - **Li Ning's Growth Outlook**: Despite anticipated weak growth in 2025, Li Ning is expected to resume earnings growth in 2026 due to enhanced brand equity and new product rollouts [35][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: The survey indicates a shift in consumer preferences, with Nike leading in "intent to purchase" at 21%, followed by Li Ning at 17% and Anta at 13% [12][14]. - **Discount Trends**: The percentage of consumers receiving discounts greater than 10% on recent purchases increased to 29% in November, indicating a competitive pricing environment [23][24]. - **Nike's Organizational Changes**: Nike's recent restructuring aims to enhance operational flexibility and brand support in China, which is expected to positively impact Topsports [3][26]. Conclusion - The China sportswear market is experiencing dynamic shifts, with Nike maintaining a strong position, while Anta and Li Ning show promising growth potential. The promotional landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, which may influence pricing strategies and consumer purchasing behavior in the near future.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on various sectors, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as AIA Group, ASMPT, Atour, Hengrui, Sunny Optical, Tencent, and others [13][14][28][33]. Core Insights - The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes technological innovation, consumption rebalancing, and building a strong domestic market, which are expected to drive growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewables [14][29]. - The report anticipates a stable external environment for China, with net exports remaining a key growth driver despite potential challenges from high bases and external demand uncertainties [7]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary of government policies, with a focus on innovation and globalization, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals [29]. - The consumer sector is shifting towards experience and service consumption, with a growing emphasis on well-being and the silver economy, indicating potential growth areas for companies in these segments [27]. Economics - The report projects a growth target of around 5.0% YoY for 2026, with a focus on policy continuity and structural support for consumption [7]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to become a focal point, with potential for significant movements as trade tensions ease and internationalization efforts continue [7]. Commodities - The report notes a shift in China's commodity fundamentals due to economic transitions, with a focus on domestic demand and energy self-sufficiency [9][10]. - The Action Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry indicates a shift towards high-quality growth, with supply growth expected to remain constrained [9]. Sector Views - **Autos and Parts**: The sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in Robotaxi and ADAS technologies, with key players expected to benefit from commercialization efforts [19]. - **Banks**: The banking sector is expected to outperform due to positive earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly among large H-share banks [22]. - **Brokers**: The report highlights a trend of households reallocating wealth into equities, benefiting brokers as market proxies [26]. - **Consumer**: Key investment themes include a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on well-being, with specific companies identified as top buys [27][28]. - **Healthcare**: Innovation and globalization are seen as critical drivers, with a focus on companies with strong pipelines and global expansion capabilities [29]. - **Insurance**: The sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from comprehensive enhancements across various business lines [33]. Top Buys - The report lists several top buy recommendations across sectors, including AIA Group, Hengrui, Tencent, and Anta, among others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [13][14][28][33].

Summary of Li Ning (2331.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning Company Limited - **Industry**: Sportswear Key Points 1. Downbeat 2H Outlook - Management expressed a pessimistic outlook for the second half of 2025, citing worse-than-expected retail performance in July and August, including a year-over-year increase in retail discounts and declining offline traffic compared to the second quarter [1][2][3] 2. Financial Guidance - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting flat sales growth year-over-year with a high single-digit net profit margin (NPM). This implies a wider year-over-year decline in net profit in the second half compared to the first half of 2025 [1][3] 3. Selling Expenses - Management anticipates a substantial rise in selling expenses both year-over-year and half-over-half due to back-end loaded advertising and promotional (A&P) expenses and increased staff costs in the second half [1][3] 4. Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Pressure - The company expects GPM to decline year-over-year in 2025 due to weaker retail sales and higher-than-expected retail discounts, with a worsening trend observed from the second to the third quarter [2][3] 5. Sales Performance by Category - In the first half of 2025, footwear sales (56% of group sales) grew by 5% year-over-year, while equipment/accessories (9% of group sales) rose by 24%. However, apparel sales fell by 3% year-over-year. Notably, basketball retail sales declined by 20% year-over-year [7] 6. Margins by Channels - In the first half of 2025, gross profit margins for direct retail, e-commerce, and wholesale channels were in the low-60s, mid-50s, and mid-40s respectively, reflecting a decline due to increased retail discounts [4][6] 7. Long-term Strategy - Despite the financial pressures in the second half, the company's long-term strategy to invest in branding and focus on professional categories remains unchanged [3] 8. Risks - Key upside risks include improved consumer confidence in China and lower-than-expected industry discounting. Downside risks involve volatile sales growth, competition with foreign brands, and execution risks in the mass market segment [9] 9. Valuation - The target price for Li Ning shares is set at HK$18.10, based on a 17x 2025E P/E, reflecting a 40% discount to Nike's historical trading P/E due to lower earnings visibility [8] 10. Market Position - The sector ranking remains: Anta (Buy) > Topsports (Buy) > Li Ning (Buy), indicating a competitive landscape within the sportswear industry [1] Additional Insights - The company is facing significant challenges in the current retail environment, with management's cautious tone reflecting broader industry trends in China. The focus on professional products and branding may provide a buffer against short-term volatility, but execution will be critical in navigating the competitive landscape.

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - In June 2025, there were inflows to 30 major HK-listed consumer stocks covered in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with average Southbound holdings as a percentage of free float increasing by 0.4 percentage points month-over-month for the 66 major HK-listed consumer stocks eligible for Connect trading [6][10] - Year-to-date 2025, average net flows from Southbound were up 2.9% compared to the end of 2024, with 40 stocks showing inflows and 26 showing outflows [2][3][6] - The top five stocks with inflows in June were Xiaocaiyuan (7.5 percentage points increase), Maogeping (5.8 percentage points), Topsports (5.6 percentage points), CR Beverage (4.5 percentage points), and Chervon (4 percentage points) [9][10] - The top five stocks with outflows included Wisdom Education (-3.2 percentage points), UPC (-2.8 percentage points), XBXB (-2 percentage points), Weilong (-1.8 percentage points), and JS Global (-1.6 percentage points) [9][10] Summary by Category - In June 2025, categories such as HPC, Agriculture, Home Appliances, Toys, Education, Luggage, and Duty-free recorded average outflows, while other categories experienced average inflows [9] - Year-to-date 2025, Beer, HPC, Education, Home Appliances, and Luggage recorded outflows, while other categories had average inflows [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK$ 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].