Gold grabbed the spotlight in 2025 after a run that saw prices hit a record more than 50 times. By end of the year, bullion was up by more than 40%, its best annual performance since 1979.Besides gold investors, miners also came away as big winners of that rally. The world’s largest exchange traded-fund with exposure to the gold mining sector, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), went up by over 155%, far outperforming the metal itself.Individually, companies like top producer Newmont (NYSE, ASX: NEM) and Cana ...

February 3, 2026 08:30 AM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Focus List Changes – China/HK and China A-share Thematic We add Chalco (601600.SS) and remove China Yangtze Power (600900.SS) in our China/HK Focus List and A-share Thematic List. We add Chalco (601600.SS) and remove China Yangtze Power (600900.SS) in our China/HK Focus List and A-share Thematic Focus List: Morgan Stanley Materials analyst Rachel Zhang believes the positive outlook for Chalco stems from the following: For more details on Cha ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The focus is on the Chinese equity market, particularly in relation to US investor interest and the implications of regulatory actions on companies like Trip.com [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Investor Interest in Chinese Equities**: There is a growing interest from US investors in diversifying their portfolios to include Chinese equities, with expectations of potential upside from government measures to boost household income and consumption [2][4]. 2. **Trip.com Anti-Trust Investigations**: Concerns were raised regarding the anti-trust investigations into Trip.com, but it is viewed as a company-specific issue rather than a sector-wide problem. Historical trends suggest that affected companies may see their share prices underperform for 4-6 months [3][10]. 3. **Economic Outlook Alignment**: US investors' views on the Chinese economy align with domestic investors, acknowledging challenges like the property downturn but not anticipating a systemic breakdown. There is hope for more stimulus to boost consumption [4][5]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Regulatory Actions**: Recent tightening of regulations in the A-share market has cooled sentiment, but these measures are seen as temporary, aimed at fostering a sustainable bull market rather than suppressing long-term growth [5][20]. 5. **Performance Expectations Leading to NPC Meeting**: Historically, the A-share market performs well leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC) meetings, and there is an expectation for a buoyant market in the first half of the year due to institutional inflows and retail participation [5][33]. 6. **Sector Preferences**: The model portfolio has shifted to favor copper over the solar supply chain, reflecting better supply/demand dynamics and a thematic play on global energy shortages [8][9]. 7. **Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for 2026**: - **Base Case**: Assumes 10% earnings growth driven by 5% revenue growth and margin expansion [29]. - **Bull Case**: Envisions a global AI boom leading to higher productivity and earnings growth, with a potential re-rating of valuations [30]. - **Bear Case**: Considers a global AI bust leading to a significant selloff in equities, particularly impacting AI-related stocks in the MSCI China index [31]. 8. **Going Global Theme**: US investors are interested in "going abroad" stocks, which are high-quality exporters with significant overseas revenue exposure, as domestic demand remains subdued [50][55]. Other Important Insights 1. **Regulatory Environment**: The tightening of margin financing requirements is seen as a measure to prevent market overheating, with historical highs in A-share market turnover and margin financing balance [20][21]. 2. **Market Performance Around Key Events**: The HK equity market typically performs better before the Chinese New Year, while A-shares tend to do well before NPC meetings, with expectations of policy stimulus influencing market reactions [46][47]. 3. **Valuation and Risk Considerations**: Risks facing Chinese equities include a potential hard landing in the property market and slow structural reforms. Excessive stimulus could hinder the transition to a consumption-driven economy [57]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current sentiment and outlook for the Chinese equity market, particularly in relation to US investors and regulatory impacts.

Zijin Mining Group is seeking $1.5 billion from the sale of bonds that can be converted into stock as the price of gold hits record highs https://t.co/b2g7RtTvTz ...

A Zijin Mining Group unit agreed to buy Allied Gold, which operates gold mines in Africa, for C$5.5 billion https://t.co/A69hEJ0LwY ...

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation Industry Overview - The Asia Pacific region is undergoing significant changes in growth and corporate strategies, as well as reforms in capital markets to enhance competitiveness in emerging technologies and multipolar supply chains [1][4]. Core Views and Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The company recommends maintaining tight market-risk positions relative to benchmarks, with a slight preference for Japan over emerging markets (EM) in 2026 [7]. - **Country Allocations**: - Small Overweights (OWs) are suggested for India, Brazil, UAE, and Singapore. - Underweights (UWs) are recommended for Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Taiwan [7]. - **China Outlook**: The company holds a moderately constructive view on China with an Equal Weight (EW) recommendation, but does not anticipate significant reflation until 2027 [7]. Thematic Insights - The top thematic focus areas identified include: - AI Path in China - Diabesity Ecosystem - AI & Healthcare [7]. Earnings and Valuations - **Earnings Projections**: - The base-case earnings for the TOPIX index are projected to be ¥185 (+9%) for F3/25, ¥198 (+7%) for F3/26, and ¥225 (+14%) for F3/27 [8][12]. - The consensus EPS for the same periods is ¥188 (+10%), ¥201 (+7%), and ¥223 (+11%) [12]. - **Valuation Targets**: - The TOPIX index is currently at 3,538 with a target of 3,600 for December 2026, reflecting a 2% increase [8]. - The MSCI EM index is at 1,467 with a target of 1,400, indicating a -5% outlook [8]. Market Performance Rankings - The performance rankings for various countries from 2016 to 2026 show Japan consistently leading, followed by Hong Kong and India, with significant fluctuations in other markets like Brazil and South Africa [9]. Forward P/E Ratios - The forecasted 12-month forward P/E ratios are: - Japan: 15.0x - Emerging Markets: 13.0x - China: 12.7x [17]. Additional Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of considering potential conflicts of interest in its research, as it engages in business with covered companies [5]. - The earnings estimate revisions for various markets indicate a mixed outlook, with Japan showing positive growth while other regions like India and Australia face downward revisions [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the investor presentation, highlighting the strategic focus on Asia Pacific markets and the anticipated trends in earnings and valuations.

Key Takeaways from Solar Glass Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the solar glass industry within the Greater China Materials sector, particularly in the Asia Pacific region [1] Core Insights 1. **Policy Controls**: - New capacity approvals for the solar glass industry are expected to be restricted, with no new approvals post-January 2024 for projects that have not started construction [2] - Stricter energy consumption standards may lead to the exit of smaller production lines [2] - Companies selling below the average production cost will face penalties, ensuring prices do not fall below this threshold [2] - Enhanced supervision and management are anticipated between companies and the industry association [2] 2. **Overseas Capacity Expansion**: - Current operating capacity overseas is approximately 11,000 tons per day (kt/d), projected to increase to around 20kt/d by the end of 2026 [3] - New production lines are planned in Southeast Asia, India, and North America [3] - Solar glass prices overseas command a premium of about 15% compared to the domestic market, with margins realized between 15-20% [3] - The price premium is expected to be sustained into 2026 due to stronger overseas demand and the timing of new line startups [3] 3. **Material Changes**: - The government has banned sodium pyroantimonate as a glass refining agent, now classified as a strategic metal [4] - Producers are testing alternative chemical compounds, which could potentially reduce refining agent costs by over 50%, although some reduction in module light transmittance is anticipated [4] 4. **Demand and Capacity Outlook**: - Demand in the second half of 2025 is impacted by the No.136 document released in February, which has reduced returns for ground-mounted power stations in China [9] - An estimated 15-17kt/d of capacity could start operations in 2026, but realistically only 12-13kt/d are likely to commence production next year [9] - Net capacity increase will be limited, with some lines expected to exit the market due to funding pressures from low profitability [9] - Operating capacity is projected to range between 83-93kt/d over the next 4-5 years [9] - Inventory levels have recently increased to approximately 24-25 days due to weakened demand and high market supply [9] - About 20-30% of capacity faces risks of exiting the market due to financial pressures [9] Additional Important Points - The insights were provided by Mrs. Wang, Shuai, a senior analyst at SCI, indicating a level of expertise in the field [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these insights in the context of investment decisions, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Morgan Stanley's business relationships [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earth Materials - **Company Mentioned**: JL Mag Rare-Earth Co. Ltd Core Insights and Arguments - **Expansion of Export Controls**: On October 9, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced an expansion of rare earth export controls to include indirect exports of rare earths and related technologies of Chinese origin, indicating a strategic move to tighten control over the rare earth supply chain [1][1][1] - **Impact on Non-compliant Exports**: The new regulation is expected to reduce previous non-compliant exports, which may benefit leading rare earth magnet producers, particularly JL Mag, focusing on civil (non-semiconductor) demand [1][1][1] Additional Important Information - **Targeted Materials**: The regulations specifically target materials mined overseas used in Samarium-cobalt magnets and NdFeB permanent magnets containing terbium (Tb) and dysprosium (Dy) that are subsequently produced in China [5][5][5] - **Case-by-case Approval**: Items related to the R&D or production of logic chips of 14nm and below or storage chips of 256 layers and above, as well as manufacturing equipment and materials for semiconductor processes, will be approved on a case-by-case basis [5][5][5]

Core Insights - The MSCI gold equities index has surged approximately 135% this year, significantly outperforming the semiconductor firms index, which has risen 40% [1][9] - The gap in performance highlights a market dynamic where investors are drawn to both AI-related gains and the ongoing rally in gold due to central bank accumulation [2][9] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 45% this year, reaching new all-time highs and on track for the best year since 1979, driven by central bank purchases, Federal Reserve rate cuts, de-dollarisation trends, and rising gold-backed ETF holdings [3][9] - Gold and gold miners are viewed as strong medium-term investment themes, with gold's safe haven appeal and potential for margin expansion and valuation re-rating for miners [3][9] Company Performance - Major companies in the MSCI gold miners index, such as Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines, have seen their New York-listed stocks more than double in 2025, while Zijin Mining Group's shares have increased over 130% in Hong Kong [6][9] - Fresnillo, a London-listed gold and silver miner, has nearly quadrupled in value, making it the top performer in the FTSE 100 Index [6][9] Valuation Comparisons - The MSCI gold miner index trades at 13 times forward earnings estimates, which is below its five-year average, indicating less concern over valuations compared to the tech sector, where the chip gauge trades at 29 times [7][9] - Despite significant gains in gold prices, miners' earnings growth has outpaced price increases, suggesting that their multiples remain attractive [7][9]

Group 1: Zijin Gold International IPO - Zijin Gold International raised $3.2 billion in its IPO, marking the largest IPO in Hong Kong for 2025 and the second-largest globally this year [2] - The capital raised will be used for mine upgrades and construction projects over the next five years to enhance production capacity [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Global oil prices fell, with WTI at $63.45 per barrel and Brent at $67.97, due to OPEC+ signaling a potential output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day in global oil markets by 2026, driven by slowing demand growth and increasing supplies [4] Group 3: UK Economic Indicators - The BRC Shop Price Index for September rose by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, surpassing the estimated 1.2% [5] - The Lloyds Business Barometer for September declined to 42 from 54, suggesting a moderation in overall business confidence [6] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - Chinese stocks may face tapering momentum by year-end due to stretched valuations, despite earlier optimism from AI breakthroughs and government support [9] - Analysts note that while some valuations remain attractive compared to U.S. counterparts, the overall sentiment indicates challenges for a sustained recovery in Chinese equities [9] Group 5: Japanese Investor Sentiment - Japanese investors, particularly younger generations, are increasingly embracing stock investments, marking a shift from historical risk aversion [10] - However, foreign investors are becoming more cautious, selling off Japanese equities due to uncertainties in corporate governance reforms and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy [10]