2月24日或之前能否实现和平（停火）不好预测，但是，与上 一年相比，推动俄乌和平的氛围要好一些。 作者：王义伟 封图：东方IC 战争会在你想开始的时候开始，但不会在你想结束的时候结束。 2022年2月24日，俄罗斯对乌克兰发起特别军事行动，俄乌冲突爆发。之后，冲突爆发2周年、3 周年之际，都有专家学者预测冲突结束的可能性，结果均事与愿违。 现在，这场冲突即将届满4周年，和平进程又有了新进展。1月23日和24日，俄罗斯、乌克兰和美 国的代表在阿联酋首都阿布扎比举行了三方会谈。这是关键三方首次坐在了一起。此轮会谈结束 后，美国总统特使威特科夫通过社交媒体表示会谈"非常具有建设性"，并透露三方计划继续磋 商。 和平的希望再度出现了。 那么，2月24日俄乌冲突4周年之际或之前，俄乌和平能实现吗？ 笔者认为，2月24日或之前能否实现和平（停火）不好预测，但是，与上一年相比，推动俄乌和平 的氛围要好一些。 首先，是欧洲（欧盟）的心气不如以前旺盛了。 在特朗普强力调解俄乌冲突、并减少了对乌援助之后，欧盟领导层一度志气满满，认为即使美国不 援助乌克兰了，欧盟也可以顶上去。此前美国与俄罗斯、乌克兰分别谈判时，欧盟不甘心被晾在一 ...

战争会在你想开始的时候开始，但不会在你想结束的时候结束。 2022年2月24日，俄罗斯对乌克兰发起特别军事行动，俄乌冲突爆发。之后，冲突爆发2周年、3周年之 际，都有专家学者预测冲突结束的可能性，结果均事与愿违。 现在，这场冲突即将届满4周年，和平进程又有了新进展。1月23日和24日，俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国的代 表在阿联酋首都阿布扎比举行了三方会谈。这是关键三方首次坐在了一起。此轮会谈结束后，美国总统 特使威特科夫通过社交媒体表示会谈"非常具有建设性"，并透露三方计划继续磋商。 和平的希望再度出现了。 那么，2月24日俄乌冲突4周年之际或之前，俄乌和平能实现吗？ 笔者认为，2月24日或之前能否实现和平(停火)不好预测，但是，与上一年相比，推动俄乌和平的氛围 要好一些。 首先，是欧洲(欧盟)的心气不如以前旺盛了。 在特朗普强力调解俄乌冲突、并减少了对乌援助之后，欧盟领导层一度志气满满，认为即使美国不援助 乌克兰了，欧盟也可以顶上去。此前美国与俄罗斯、乌克兰分别谈判时，欧盟不甘心被晾在一边，高调 表态欧盟不能缺席和平进程。 但是现在，经过美国意图强行购买格陵兰岛的风波之后，看得出，欧盟对抗俄罗斯的好胜之心，对俄乌 ...

更关键的是，这笔钱不是俄罗斯国库支出，而是被美国上届政府冻结的资产。欧洲各国还没从震惊中回过神，一个更棘手的问题摆在面前：这到底是妥协， 还是一场早有预谋的布局？ 白俄罗斯第一时间申请加入，以色列态度反复后最终点头，约旦、阿联酋等八国联合表态支持，但只要谈及资金到位时间，各国不是说要研究细节，就是以 内部程序为由拖延。 当地时间1月21日，一则消息炸懵了整个国际舆论场。打了1500多天的仗，没人想到转折点会以这种方式出现——普京突然松口，愿意拿出10亿美元给美国 的和平委员会。 美国牵头的和平委员会成立还不到一周，六十多个收到邀请的国家，全都陷入了沉默的观望。 没人愿意当第一个掏钱的冤大头。这个新成立的委员会，既没有明确的章程，也没有完善的监督机制，权力还高度集中在特朗普手中，就连投票权和否决权 的划分都没有定论。大家心里都清楚，现在掏钱，无异于不明不白地把主动权交出去。 就在所有人都捂紧钱袋子的时候，普京站了出来。1月21日，普京公开证实，已收到特朗普关于加入和平委员会的邀请，并且已经责成俄罗斯外交部研究相 关文件，后续会和战略伙伴磋商后给出正式答复。 更令人意外的是，即便还没决定是否加入，俄方已经愿意先行 ...

俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫22日稍早前曾表示，威特科夫与库什纳将于当天晚上抵达俄首都莫斯科， 同普京举行会谈。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间1月22日，美国总统特朗普在瑞士称，总统特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳与俄罗斯总统普 京的会晤将于23日进行。 此外，威特科夫表示，俄乌和平进程已取得重大进展，如今已到了最后阶段，他保持乐观态度。在访问 俄罗斯之后，他将前往阿联酋，参加美、俄、乌三方工作组会议。 ...

Group 1 - The UK Ministry of Defence announced the development of a new land-based tactical ballistic missile to enhance Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities against Russia, with a focus on providing advanced weaponry to Ukraine amid escalating conflict [1] - The project, codenamed "Nightfall," aims to quickly develop a missile with a range exceeding 500 kilometers, capable of operating in high-threat environments and carrying a 200-kilogram conventional warhead, with an estimated cost of no more than £800,000 per missile [1] - Initial production is expected to yield approximately 10 systems per month, with the missile designed for rapid launch from various vehicle platforms [1] Group 2 - Russian officials dismissed the UK's missile commitment as unrealistic, claiming the weapon has not yet been developed, and warned that any arms transferred to Ukraine would be considered military targets [2] - The UK has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the onset of the conflict, previously supplying Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and the new missile could potentially cover Moscow, enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities [2] - Russia conducted a large-scale strike on Ukrainian military and energy facilities, using various missile types, in response to an earlier attack on the Russian presidential residence, emphasizing the ongoing escalation of hostilities [3] Group 3 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that negotiations with the US are progressing well, with both sides coordinating meeting schedules and preparing documents for signing, indicating a potential for productive discussions [4] - There is a growing inclination among European nations to restore dialogue with Russia, although consensus on representation in such negotiations has yet to be reached [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the ongoing complexities of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with both sides engaging in strategic discussions and military actions as they navigate peace negotiations and security assurances [1][3][7] - U.S. and European leaders are actively involved in discussions to advance the peace process, focusing on practical steps to enhance Ukraine's security and establish conflict resolution mechanisms [1][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not accept a peace deal at any cost, asserting the need for a definitive end to the war rather than a compromise that undermines Ukraine's sovereignty [3][7] Group 2 - The Russian Defense Ministry reported an attempted drone attack by Ukraine on President Putin's residence, indicating a targeted and well-planned operation involving 91 drones [3][4][5] - All Ukrainian drones were reportedly intercepted by Russian air defense forces, and the presidential residence was not damaged, showcasing the effectiveness of Russia's defensive measures [4][5] - In response to the drone attack, Russia announced a shift in its negotiation stance, with Foreign Minister Lavrov indicating that the attack would influence future discussions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent phone meeting involving U.S. Special Envoy Wittekov, security advisors from the UK, France, and Germany, and Ukrainian representatives to advance the peace process between Russia and Ukraine [1] Group 1: Peace Process Discussions - The meeting focused on pragmatic ways to advance discussions on the Russia-Ukraine peace process, including enhancing security guarantees for Ukraine and establishing effective conflict resolution mechanisms to help end the conflict and prevent future outbreaks [1] - The participants also addressed the issue of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine [1] Group 2: Upcoming Meetings - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a consensus with European-led "volunteer alliance" countries to hold a national security affairs assistants meeting in Ukraine on January 3, 2026, followed by a leaders' level meeting in France on January 6, with U.S. representatives attending [1] - Former President Trump met with Zelensky on December 28 in Florida to discuss the peace process, with both parties claiming significant progress was made, although no major announcements were made [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is showing signs of potential progress towards peace, with ongoing discussions between Ukraine and the U.S. and a new peace plan proposed by Ukraine's President Zelensky [2][3]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Zelensky denied claims of a breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine talks, stating that discussions are ongoing daily [2]. - Trump announced significant progress in peace discussions, claiming that 95% of key issues have been addressed and that a potential meeting between the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine could occur [2]. - Russian officials acknowledged some consensus with the U.S. regarding the peace process, with plans to establish working groups on security and economic issues [2]. Group 2: Structural Challenges - Despite positive signals, there are structural challenges hindering substantial breakthroughs in the peace process, primarily due to irreconcilable political demands from both Russia and Ukraine [3][8]. - Russia's core demands include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from certain regions and a commitment from Ukraine not to join NATO, which Ukraine is unwilling to concede [8][9]. - Ukraine's insistence on maintaining territorial integrity and security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO complicates the negotiation landscape, as these demands conflict with Russia's geopolitical interests [9][12]. Group 3: International Dynamics - The U.S. and European nations have differing approaches to the peace process, with the U.S. pushing for a quick resolution while Europe emphasizes Ukraine's military capabilities as essential for its security [12][13]. - The lack of a unified stance among international mediators, particularly between the U.S. and Europe, undermines the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts [13].

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian President Zelensky condemned recent "extremely dangerous" statements from Russia, claiming they aim to undermine the peace process being advanced with the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Ukrainian Response - Zelensky explicitly denied Russia's claim that Ukraine attempted to use drones to attack the Russian presidential residence, labeling it as a complete fabrication [1] - He stated that such claims are essentially excuses for continued attacks on Ukraine, particularly targeting the capital, Kyiv [1] - Zelensky characterized the Russian statements as a "typical fraud tactic," referencing previous large-scale airstrikes on Kyiv that damaged government buildings [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Stance - Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine's commitment to not undermining diplomatic efforts and called for an appropriate response from the United States to the threats posed by Russia [1] Group 3: Russian Response - There has been no response from the Russian side regarding Zelensky's statements as of the report [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions in Miami between Russian and American representatives regarding the Ukraine-Russia peace process indicate a constructive dialogue, but significant obstacles remain in achieving a resolution [1][2]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Russian President's special representative Dmitryev met with U.S. officials in Miami, with discussions deemed constructive and set to continue [1][2]. - Ukrainian representatives have engaged in preliminary talks with European officials and aim to advance discussions with the U.S. in a constructive manner [1][3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed hope that U.S. proposals could facilitate exchanges of personnel between Ukraine and Russia [1][3]. Group 2: Obstacles to Peace - The first major obstacle identified is territorial disputes, particularly regarding the Donetsk region, where Russian forces control most areas but Ukrainian forces retain some territory [3][9]. - The second obstacle involves NATO expansion, which Russia claims is a root cause of the Ukraine crisis, while Ukraine has enshrined its NATO aspirations in its constitution [4][10]. - A third challenge is the size of Ukraine's military, with initial U.S. proposals suggesting a cap of 600,000 troops, which has since been modified to 800,000 [5][11]. - Cultural issues present another hurdle, as Russia demands the restoration of Russian media and education in Ukraine, while Ukraine restricts Russian media to combat misinformation [5][12]. - The fifth obstacle concerns the control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with Ukraine arguing that U.S. proposals for its division are unfair and lack necessary details for safe operation [6][12].