美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，上周五美元指数呈现出上涨的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至97.951的位置，最低则下探至97.515位置，最终以 97.828的价格收 盘。回顾上周五市场表现，在早盘期间价格直接依托四小时支撑快速上涨，但是之后接近上周四高点后持续震荡为主，欧盘及美盘均没有向上突破，不过最 终日线依旧大阳收尾，同时周线也是大阳收尾，价格目前在日线支撑及四小时支撑上持续看多头即可。 从多周期分析，周线级别来看价格压制在98.90区域阻力，那么从中期视角出发，美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上随着时间的推移价格关键 支撑位置于97.30位置，价格目前已经实际突破并站稳，后续在此之上波段多对待。四小时上近期价格正如笔者所言在触及至通道线后支撑上涨，目前持续 上涨中，随着时间的推移目前四小时支撑于97.70位置，价格在此位置之上继续偏多对待。一小时上看目前短线价格向下修正，短线先关注四小时支撑，价 格整体在日线及四小时支撑之上看多不变，后续关注测试周线阻力区域。 美指97.60-70区间多，防守91.20，目标98.10-98.40-98.90 黄金 黄金3370区域空，防守10美金，目标335 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise for three consecutive days, with expectations for a weekly gain, driven by renewed trade war concerns following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum, with traders closely monitoring trade developments amid a quiet U.S. economic calendar [2]. - Safe-haven investments have resurfaced in the Asian trading session due to President Trump's tariff statements, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3]. - Trump's threats to impose a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, have dampened optimism regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Europe [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The instability of Trump's trade policies has weakened investor confidence, reigniting demand for both the U.S. dollar and gold as safe-haven assets [5]. - Despite the dollar's rebound, gold buyers remain undeterred, with anxiety surrounding the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are rebounding from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,325 [9]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed the midline, currently near 50.50, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment towards precious metals [10]. - A daily close above the 50-day SMA at $3,323 is necessary for buyers to challenge the 21-day SMA at $3,344, with potential resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,377 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are rebounding, driven by concerns over trade tensions and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, following recent tariff announcements by President Trump [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have rebounded from a weekly low of $3283, supported by the weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields [3][5]. - The U.S. Treasury yields have decreased due to renewed economic growth concerns and strong demand for $39 billion in 10-year bonds [6]. - President Trump announced new tariffs on various goods, including a 20% tariff on products from the Philippines and 50% on copper imports, effective August 1 [6][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices successfully recovered the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3297, despite briefly testing below this level [12]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 48.50, indicating a lack of bullish confidence [12]. - A sustained breakthrough above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at $3323 is necessary for a meaningful rebound towards the 21-day SMA at $3346 [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus is on Trump's tariff negotiations, upcoming U.S. economic data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers for new trading signals for gold prices [9]. - Continued weakness in the dollar and low Treasury yields may provide ongoing support for non-yielding gold prices [9]. - If gold prices are rejected at the 50-day SMA, increased selling pressure could lead to a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at $3297 [14].

华尔街的黄金战场已杀红眼，3350美元关口堆积着相当于三十八吨黄金的期权合约，高盛算法团队启动 了"黄金波动率吞噬"策略。最戏剧性的一幕发生在纽约商品交易所的地下金库：一位亚洲客户紧急提走 六吨实物金条，押运车队在警笛声中驶向肯尼迪机场。 香港中环的珠宝商们嗅到了这股风暴，周生生 金库主管调派二十辆装甲车紧急补货，并在内部群发语音："所有分店今明两天暂停接收五公斤以上的 大单！" 与此同时，日本经济产业省的传真机疯狂吐出纸张。最新文件显示，美国同意暂缓对日征收汽车钢板关 税，但半导体光刻胶关税却从28%飙升至32%。首尔青瓦台紧急召开会议，三星电子股价开盘暴跌9%。 黄金行情软件发出红色预警：现货金价瞬间突破3340美元，四分钟内成交八百手空单平仓盘。 凌晨三点的芝加哥交易池，一位满手戒指的老交易员喃喃自语："1999年索罗斯狙击英镑之前，黄金也 是如此平静。" 北京西城区的黄金分析老炮冯哥在直播间激动地吼道："别被震荡洗出去！看看周线 MACD金叉！"他的K线图上清晰标注着神奇的斐波那契数列——黄金刚刚收复6月38.2%的回撤位 3325，下一个目标直指50%分位的3365。技术派交易员发现了更诡异的信号： ...

7月9日，投顾彭根在今日市场分析中指出，昨夜美股纳斯达克指数微涨0.03%，道琼斯指数微跌 0.37%，整体呈现窄幅波动格局。具体来看，纳指在前一交易日跳空低开下跌后，昨晚继续缩量整理。 这种走势表明，短线市场并未出现连续下跌，但阶段性顶部已经形成，接下来市场可能小幅反弹至前高 附近，也可能直接向下调整。因此，他认为外围市场短线上涨动能已开始减弱，未来震荡走弱将是大概 率事件。此外，昨晚美元指数再度小幅上行，值得重点关注的是，美元指数存在阶段性走强的可能性。 回到A股市场，昨天A股的收盘点位是3497点，未能站上3500点整数关口。因此，彭根判断今天市场大 概率将冲击并拿下3500点这一关键位置，即去年10月8日那根超级墓碑K线的收盘价，这一位置附近曾 多次成为市场的重要阻力位，去年11月8日和12月10日市场两次反弹的高点，均止步于3500点附近。 然而，彭根注意到，此次市场再次接近3500点时，并未出现此前常见的高开低走实体阴线。相反，昨天 市场在面临3500点关口时，呈现出量价齐升、攻势强劲的局面。尤其是昨天下午的分时图显示，指数多 次逼近3500点，虽然未能成功突破，但也未出现明显的深度回撤。这种走势 ...

一周也只有周一能起个大早，早上开盘紧盯黄金价格走势，区间下砸一波3335一线再度上行冲击上周压力3345，市场看似挺强，但是从交易的方面我并不知 道此时除了做空还能有什么样的交易！所以在此刻我再度重申我对于黄金目前阶段的看法： 下跌趋势已经打开，反弹空，现价空，反正怎么都是空！ 黄金做空思路，顶部压力3345，底部支撑关注非农下砸点3310一线，只要此支撑点位破位，那就意味着黄金价格空头一路开空就行了！没有什么特别的趋 势，一路空下去，目标关注3200之下！ 之前我也讲过市场之所以下跌很缓慢，明明在k线的走势中大跌在即，偏偏市场并没有按照预想来进行，这就是因为价格没有受市场消息的推到，再好的下 跌趋势也不能进行实现！ 所以在本周末市场放出的消息来看，川普关税的谈判，停火协议等等。都是无差别的释放黄金前期应声上涨的预期，所以在今天早盘阶段黄金很快的冲3345 一线就跌破了非农的支撑点！所以对待后市的目标将会关注3275（四小时目标）！ 微博发出的动态还在讲，当你认为此价格已经得到支撑跌不动的时候想要搏一搏短线，反而这个时候情绪性的慢跌他来了，市场一路走跌的不回头的情绪也 来了！就感觉市场挺有意思的！像极了盯着自 ...

半年度报告——风险管理 基于期货技术分析 重点品种半年度风险管理指引 ★有色板块：警惕大趋势下趋势短线反转风险 有色板块需警惕趋势中短线反转。沪铝在上涨回调时适合技 术指标追踪，可用止损或买入看跌期权对冲。沪锌技术指标 对反弹转跌更有效，多头慎设止损或买入看涨期权替代。沪 铜关键风险：1)有效跌破 S1 支撑可能下探 S3，短期注意止盈， 长期持有的空头仓位应当谨慎对待；2)价格上探 R1 但量能不 足恐假突破，多单止盈或配合期权空头套保。 ★黑色板块：实施差异化管理 上游双焦采用短线箱体操作，长期持有需结合基本面。铁矿 石基本面趋势下箱体操作可宽松至 S3 至 R3，但反弹遇阻（R1 至 R2）需谨慎；双焦破位风险高，阻力可下移至新枢轴 R1。 重点品种螺纹钢需警惕空头回补反弹及假突破（量能不足上 探 R2 至 R3），多头套保可于 R2 至 R3 止盈或买入看涨期权； 现货企业可在 S1-R1 区间运用期权领口策略对冲风险。 ★农产品板块：高波动短线操作，低波动需结合基本面 高波品种棕榈油等可配合期权短线操作，警惕突发风险；中 低波品种需基本面配合，在枢轴 R1-S1 谨慎操作；玉米等低 波品种震荡上涨时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in private sector employment, as indicated by ADP data, may lead to an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting gold prices positively if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows continued labor market weakness [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May, and an expected slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [3]. - Any unexpected performance in the labor market could lead to significant market volatility, influencing investor confidence regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Gold Price Analysis - Technically, spot gold is expected to continue its upward trend, needing further confirmation, with the price struggling to break through the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,350 per ounce [3]. - The 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish slope well below the current gold price, while technical indicators lack strong directional strength [3]. Short-term Price Targets - The 4-hour chart suggests that gold prices may reach higher levels, targeting the next Fibonacci resistance at $3,373.50 per ounce [5]. - Following the release of the ADP data, gold prices surpassed the previous week's high of $3,357.88, indicating potential for further upward movement [6]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy focuses on buying on dips, with support levels identified at $3,333 and $3,327, while resistance levels are noted at $3,366 and $3,375 [6].

| 轮次 | 方向 | 始末日期 | 始末点位 | | 涨跌幅度 回撤/涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮 | 上涨 | 9.26-11.8 | 650→1400 | +115% | 0.25 | | | 下跌 | 11. 11-1. 13 | 1400→1000 | -29% | | | 第二轮 | 上涨 | 1.14-3.18 | 1000→1440 | +44% | 0. 3 | | | 下跌 | 3.19-4.9 | 1440→1250 | -13% | | | 第三轮 | 上涨 | 4.10-5.21 | 1250→1500 | +20% | 0. 5 | | | 下跌 | 5.22-6.20 | 1500→1350 | -10% | | 对数字敏感的同学应该关注到了38%、45%这两个值，这是一个斐波那契递归数列， 俗称"黄金分割" 。 我们不做具体的论证，仅从图形来看，北研君认为这三轮上涨行情之间， 在绝对点位和相对变动两个层 面都有一个显著的按黄金分割比例"坍缩"的趋势 ，如果延续，未来的走势是这样： 上周开始，三市依稀得见牛市踪影 ...

Economic Data and Events - Investors should closely monitor key economic data and events this week, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials, ISM manufacturing data, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, as these will provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy path and influence gold prices [1] Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market experienced a downward trend last week due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, breaking below the critical level of 3300, resulting in a small bearish candle [1] - The weekly chart indicates that gold has fallen below the MA10 support, with the MACD indicator forming a death cross at high levels, suggesting potential further decline towards the MA20 [1] - The daily chart shows that bullish momentum has halted, with the moving averages in a tight range, and although the MACD has formed a death cross, it is near the zero line, indicating limited downside potential before a breakout [1] - Short-term trading strategy for gold suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3290, with a stop loss at 3282 and a target of 3320-3340 [1] Silver Market Analysis - The daily chart for silver shows a small candlestick with a notably low wick, resembling a potential doji pattern, indicating market indecision between buyers and sellers [3] - The support level at 35.12, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from April to June, provides a solid technical base, while resistance above may limit short-term gains [3] - Domestic silver futures are trading above 8765, with a slight increase of 0.09%, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [4]