行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业 2025 年 11 月数据点评 国内客座率同比增幅继续维持，国际供需加速 推荐（维持） 恢复 ❑ 航司 11 月数据分析： 11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(15.6%) > 南航(8.7%) > 东航(6.5%) > 吉祥(6.1%) > 国 航(4.9%)，RPK 同比：春秋(18.0%) > 南航(10.4%) > 东航(10.4%) > 国航 (10.1%) > 吉祥(8.9%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(6.9%) > 南航(6.1%) > 国航 (3.3%) > 吉祥(2.3%) ，RPK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(10.9%) > 南航(8.0%) > 国航(5.6%) > 吉祥(3.4%)。 1)国内线：11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(16.3%) > 南航(5.6%) > 国航(3.9%) > 东航 (2.1%) > 吉祥(-0.5%)，RPK 同比：春秋(17.9%) > 国航(7.5%) > 南航(7.4%) > 东航(5.1%) > 吉祥(0.8%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(8.1%) ...

华泰证券研报指出，往后展望，淡季高频数据或难以形成催化，短期波动市场关注度较低，更为关注26 年春运数据表现；中长期行业供给增速或将保持低位，景气改善有望传导至票价提升，同时油价和美元 兑人民币汇率有望降低成本压力，共同改善航司盈利。首选高胜率+高赔率的国有三大航AH，再选其 他民营航司。 消息面上，12月16日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率再次走强。其中，离岸人民币对美元汇率再次击穿 7.04，盘中一度升至7.03725，创2024年10月4日以来新高。此外，三大航淡季客座率仍较为强势。东方 航空11月客座率为87.37%，同比上升3.04个百分点；南方航空11月客座率为86.29%，同比上升1.36个百 分点；中国国航11月平均客座率83.3%，同比上升4个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，航空股逆市上扬，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)涨1.92%，报4.78港元；南方航空 (01055)涨1.16%，报5.25港元；中国国航(00753)涨0.94%，报6.43港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong aviation stocks are experiencing a positive trend, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics, ticket price increases, and reduced cost pressures, with several institutions issuing optimistic reports on the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, Hong Kong's three major airline stocks continued to rise, with China Eastern Airlines initially increasing by nearly 5%, regaining a market capitalization above HKD 100 billion, while China National Airlines rose over 2% and China Southern Airlines increased by over 1% [1] - The latest prices and changes for the airline stocks are as follows: China Eastern Airlines at HKD 4.910 (+3.37%), China National Airlines at HKD 6.730 (+2.12%), and China Southern Airlines at HKD 5.500 (+1.29%) [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Research from Zhongtai Securities indicates a significant increase in international flight capacity and limited growth in domestic capacity, suggesting an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely leading to improved ticket prices [1] - The report highlights favorable conditions with oil prices and exchange rates, predicting a "not-so-slow" trend in the fourth quarter, with expectations of substantial loss reduction in the airline industry by Q4 2025 and potential profit elasticity release in 2026 [1] - Huachuang Securities emphasizes the positive outlook for airline stock investments, noting that off-peak ticket prices are turning positive, with the industry's passenger load factor reaching its highest level of the year and ticket prices showing year-on-year improvement, indicating an upward cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong aviation stocks are experiencing a continued upward trend, driven by positive signals in the industry such as improved supply-demand dynamics, rising ticket prices, and reduced cost pressures [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Eastern Airlines saw an intraday increase of nearly 5%, with its market capitalization surpassing HKD 100 billion [1] - China Southern Airlines and Air China rose over 1% and 2% respectively [1] - The latest stock prices are as follows: China Eastern Airlines at HKD 4.910 (up 3.37%), Air China at HKD 6.730 (up 2.12%), and China Southern Airlines at HKD 5.500 (up 1.29%) [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Multiple institutions have released reports indicating positive improvements in the aviation sector, focusing on the optimization of the supply-demand structure, ticket price increases, and alleviated cost pressures [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the significant increase in international flight capacity and limited growth in domestic capacity suggests an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors indicating potential ticket price improvements [1] - The report anticipates a "not-so-slow" trend in the fourth quarter, with expectations of substantial loss reduction in the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and potential profit elasticity release in 2026 [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huachuang Securities emphasizes a positive outlook on aviation stock investment opportunities, noting that the passenger load factor has reached its highest level of the year and ticket prices have turned positive year-on-year [1] - The report highlights a cyclical upward turning point in the industry and recommends focusing on China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines for potential elasticity release [1]

淡季票价持续转正，该行继续强调积极看待航空股投资机会，行业客座率升至年内最高，票价同比转 正，周期向上拐点已现。重点推荐：看好中国国航、南方航空、中国东航三大航弹性释放。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 4.890 | 3.38% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 5.540 | 3.17% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 6.610 | 2.96% | | 02588 | 中银航空租赁 | 71.550 | 0.56% | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 11.910 | 0.08% | | 00357 | 美兰空港 | 10.520 | 0.57% | 11月19日，港股航空股再度活跃上涨，其中，国航、东航、南航涨幅均超3%，国泰航空、美兰空港跟 涨。 消息上，华创证券研报指出，受民航换季及外部事件因素影响，中国大陆-日本周度航班量下滑，第45 周（11.03-11.09)周航班量1189班次，恢复率（较2019年同期）为82.9%，环比第40周下降14.5%，但国 际航线中长 ...

航空：需求持续改善，积极看好 20250921 摘要 中国民航需求仍处于中期偏后增长阶段，主要驱动力为 20-50 岁消费旺 盛期人口，而非总人口数量，预示着航空业长期增长潜力。 短期内，国内大盘票价同比转正，反映工商务需求实质性修复，叠加美 联储降息周期带来的全球经济复苏预期，利好航空需求。 四季度航空股投资机会显现，市场对淡季数据存在认知惯性，但实际数 据趋势向好，且美联储降息周期有助于全球经济复苏，从而带动中国出 口和航空需求。 2025 年四季度，工商务需求改善的持续性和反内卷政策（如客公里收 益低于 0.41 元限制增投运力）将稳定市场价格，改善行业盈利。 2025 年布伦特原油价格从 70 美元降至 65 美元，降低航空公司成本， 叠加需求改善和监管托底，行业利润有望实质性改善。 航空股估值可参考单机市值，目前国航 A 股单机市值对应净资产倍数约 为 1.2 倍，反映市场对未来盈利和涨价预期。 港股流动性较弱但上涨潜力更大，建议在市场流动性支撑下优先配置港 股三大航，情绪好转时关注吉祥航空及三大航 A 股。 Q&A 如何看待航空股在四季度的投资机会？ 四季度，航空股有望迎来板块性的行情。长期来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry shows steady growth in supply and demand as of August 2025, with ticket prices performing slightly better than in July. The report highlights a recent recovery in both volume and pricing [1]. - Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by internal growth and ongoing recovery in international routes. Supply constraints continue to be a factor, while falling oil prices are expected to reduce costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in leading companies within the industry, particularly focusing on low-cost carriers and those with strong operational efficiencies [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In August, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth year-on-year was led by Spring Airlines (12.0%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.8%), Southern Airlines (6.4%), Air China (2.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (-2.7%). RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth was similarly led by Spring Airlines (12.2%) [1]. - Cumulative data from January to August shows Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (10.0%) and Eastern Airlines leading in RPK growth (11.3%) [1]. - Domestic routes in August saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 9.1% and RPK growth of 9.6%, while Air China experienced a decline in both metrics [1]. - International routes showed significant growth for Spring Airlines (ASK +27.2%, RPK +26.3%) and a strong performance from Juneyao Airlines [2]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in August was highest for Spring Airlines at 93.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The cumulative load factor from January to August for Spring Airlines was 91.2%, reflecting a slight decline [3]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 12 aircraft in August, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for investment in the aviation sector, particularly for companies like Huaxia Airlines, which is expected to reach a sustainable operational turning point, and Spring Airlines, which is leveraging its low-cost competitive advantage [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in international routes, with companies like Juneyao Airlines expected to benefit from efficient operations of wide-body aircraft [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of major airlines in Q2, driven by resilient domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [7]. - The report emphasizes the constraints on supply and the reduction in oil prices, which are expected to alleviate cost pressures for airlines [7]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for specific airlines, particularly Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, due to their competitive advantages in the domestic market [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In June, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (12.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.5%) and Southern Airlines (4.6%) [1]. - For the first half of the year, cumulative ASK growth was highest for Spring Airlines (9.5%) and Eastern Airlines (7.5%) [1]. - In June, the RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates were also led by Spring Airlines (11.6%) and Eastern Airlines (10.0%) [1]. - Cumulatively, Eastern Airlines had the highest RPK growth in the first half of the year at 12.2% [1]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic route performance in June showed Spring Airlines leading with an ASK growth of 10.5%, while international routes saw significant growth from 吉祥航空 (46.9%) [2][3]. - Cumulatively, for the first half of the year, 吉祥航空 had the highest ASK growth in international routes at 65.6% [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In June, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. - For the first half of the year, Spring Airlines maintained the highest load factor at 90.5%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Fleet Growth - As of June 2025, the total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 5 aircraft, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][19]. Financial Performance Forecast - The report forecasts significant improvements in the financial performance of major airlines for the first half of 2025, with Huaxia Airlines expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 875% [7][9]. - In contrast, the three major airlines (Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines) are expected to report losses, but with reduced loss margins compared to the previous year [7][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6][57]. Core Insights - The report expresses a positive outlook on the aviation sector, particularly regarding the upcoming summer travel season, driven by improved demand and operational metrics [8]. - Key factors supporting this outlook include resilient domestic demand, ongoing recovery in international routes, and supply constraints in the market [8]. - The report highlights specific airlines, such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, as leaders in the domestic regional market, while also noting the potential for China National Aviation to release elasticity in operations [8]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In May, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (11.5%), followed by Eastern Airlines (9.3%) and Southern Airlines (5.0%) [2]. - For RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers), Eastern Airlines showed the highest growth at 15.4%, with Spring Airlines at 11.7% [2]. - Cumulative data from January to May indicates Spring Airlines leading in ASK growth (8.9%) and Eastern Airlines in RPK growth (12.7%) [2]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic routes in May saw Spring Airlines with an ASK growth of 10.9% and RPK growth of 12.0% [3]. - Internationally, Juneyao Airlines led with an ASK growth of 50.1% and RPK growth of 66.7% in May [3]. - Cumulative data for international routes from January to May shows Juneyao Airlines with a significant ASK growth of 69.5% and RPK growth of 71.2% [3]. Load Factor and Fleet Size - The load factor in May was highest for Spring Airlines at 91.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [4]. - The total fleet size of the five listed airlines increased by 6 aircraft in May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [4]. Market Performance - The aviation sector's total market capitalization is reported at 730.725 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 514.519 billion yuan [6]. - The absolute performance of the sector over the last month was -3.3%, while the relative performance was +2.8% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the container shipping sector due to high freight rates and increased demand driven by the recent US-China tariff adjustments [1][3]. Core Insights - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, leading to a surge in bilateral trade and a nearly 300% increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US [1][11]. - Freight rates on North American routes have significantly increased, with Shanghai to US West Coast and East Coast rates rising by 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. - The report anticipates a short-term surge in container demand due to a stocking wave, which may challenge port logistics and further influence freight rates [3][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: US-China Tariff Developments - The US and China agreed to suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, leading to a rapid increase in trade and shipping demand [1][11]. - Container shipping bookings surged from an average of 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs within a week following the tariff adjustments [1][11]. Section 2: Market Demand and Freight Rates - The demand for shipping services has rebounded sharply, with significant increases in spot booking prices for shipping containers [2][12]. - As of May 16, 2025, the spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to the US West Coast and East Coast reached $3,091 and $4,069 per FEU, reflecting increases of 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading container shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, which is expected to benefit from rising freight rates on US routes [3][15]. - It also highlights the potential of regional shipping companies in Asia, suggesting that the ongoing trade tensions may sustain high demand in this segment [3][15]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a 4.8% year-on-year increase in domestic air passenger volume, indicating a recovery in the aviation sector [16][20]. - The report notes a 10% increase in the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) and a 4% increase in Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates, reflecting overall positive trends in the shipping industry [36][37].