While silver inventories on COMEX continue to decline, Binance’s newly launched gold and silver perpetual futures have already surpassed $70 billion in trading volume within weeks. The sharp convergence across metals and crypto derivatives markets signals surging demand for 24/7 synthetic exposure to precious metals. Physical Silver Tightens as 24/7 Derivatives Demand Accelerates Across Crypto and Metals Markets Binance recorded over $70 billion in trading volume across its XAU/USDT and XAG/USDT perpetu ...

Quick Read COMEX has 102M oz of silver available to settle 366M oz of March delivery contracts. Billionaire trader holds 450 metric ton silver naked short position against SHFE’s 318.54 metric ton total inventory. Silver enters its sixth consecutive year of production shortfalls versus demand. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. The bullish run on silver that started in 2025 reached as ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is attributed to various factors including the selection of a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve chair, easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and a routine OPEC+ meeting [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices have decreased for the first time in three days, with Brent crude falling 2.9% to $67.54 per barrel and WTI declining 3.0% to $63.19 per barrel [2] - The decline follows a spike in oil prices due to U.S. President Trump's threats against Iran in response to protests [2] Group 2: U.S.-Iran Negotiations - Iran's announcement of talks with the U.S. has eased fears of imminent military action, with negotiations set to occur in Oman [2] - Despite the talks, a U.S. official expressed skepticism about their potential success, with Trump warning Iran's Supreme Leader to be concerned [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Supply Dynamics - Analysts at Standard Chartered report a gradual shift towards a more positive sentiment in oil markets, moving away from the bearish oversupply narrative of late 2025 [4] - The Brent forward curve has strengthened significantly, indicating a reassessment of the oversupply concerns, with backwardation extending beyond front contracts [5][6] - Expectations for demand in 2026 are being adjusted higher, particularly due to fiscal stimulus and policy support in China [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for fiscal Q2 2026 increased 136% to $6.5 billion from $2.7 billion in Q2 of the previous year, with a 69% increase excluding $2.5 billion of forward sales [11] - Net income for Q2 2026 totaled $11.6 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to $6.6 million, or $0.27 per diluted share in the same year-ago quarter [19] - Adjusted net income before provision for income taxes for Q2 totaled $23.2 million, an increase of 74% compared to $13.4 million in the same year-ago quarter [19] - EBITDA for Q2 fiscal 2026 totaled $33.9 million, an increase of 109% compared to $16.2 million in the same year-ago quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold sales in Q2 fiscal 2026 were 545,000 ounces, up 17% from Q2 of last year and up 24% from the prior quarter [22] - Silver sales in Q2 fiscal 2026 were 18.6 million ounces, down 15% from Q2 of last year but up 79% from the previous quarter [22] - The number of new customers in the DTC segment was 96,100 in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 47% from Q2 of last year [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium spreads remained tight through the end of 2025, with backwardation in the silver market contributing to trading losses [7] - The problem with backwardation in Q2 has eased, and markets are moving back towards contango, which is positive for trading [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to integrate and realize cost savings and synergies from recent acquisitions while expanding both domestic and geographic reach [25] - The strategic partnership with Tether is expected to enhance liquidity and provide opportunities for growth in the physical gold markets [25][77] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating rapidly evolving market conditions and highlighted increased consumer demand across platforms [7] - The company anticipates a strong quarter ahead, driven by elevated consumer demand and improved premium spreads [9][37] Other Important Information - The company has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, maintaining its current dividend program [21] - The acquisition of Monex Deposit Company is expected to strengthen offerings and expand customer service capabilities [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comparison of gold and silver performance in the December quarter - Management noted a shift back to silver, with silver now representing about 50% of total volume, and premiums for one-ounce silver products have significantly increased [32][33] Question: Impact of widening spreads on profitability - Management indicated expectations for a strong quarter, suggesting widening spreads will positively impact profitability [37] Question: Tether investment impact on profitability - Management anticipates a significant drop in interest expense and improved liquidity due to the Tether investment [44] Question: Ability to maintain product inventory amid surging demand - Management stated that having two mints allows for greater product availability compared to competitors, although some products may still face allocation issues [48] Question: Future expansion of logistics facilities - Management indicated that while there is potential for future facilities, current demand does not necessitate immediate expansion outside the U.S. [54] Question: Non-controlling items impact on GAAP earnings - Management identified Sunshine Mint's facility shutdown as a key issue affecting non-controlling items, but expects improvements moving forward [57] Question: Strategic M&A efforts in light of Tether partnership - Management confirmed that the partnership with Tether supports the ability to engage in larger transactions while continuing to grow in the physical gold markets [83]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for fiscal Q2 2026 increased 136% to $6.5 billion from $2.7 billion in Q2 of the previous year, with a 69% increase excluding $2.5 billion of forward sales [10] - Net income for Q2 2026 totaled $11.6 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, compared to $6.6 million, or $0.27 per diluted share in the same year-ago quarter [17] - Gross profit for Q2 2026 increased 109% to $93 million, or 1.44% of revenue, from $44.8 million, or 1.63% of revenue in Q2 of last year [11] - SG&A expenses for Q2 2026 increased 132% to $59.8 million from $25.8 million in Q2 of last year [12] - EBITDA for Q2 2026 totaled $33.9 million, an increase of 109% compared to $16.2 million in the same year-ago quarter [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 545,000 ounces of gold in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 17% from Q2 of last year and up 24% from the prior quarter [20] - The company sold 18.6 million ounces of silver in Q2 fiscal 2026, down 15% from Q2 of last year but up 79% from last quarter [20] - The number of new customers in the DTC segment was 96,100 in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 47% from Q2 of last year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Premium spreads remained tight through the end of 2025, with backwardation in the silver market contributing to trading losses [6] - The problem with backwardation in Q2 has eased, and the markets are moving back towards contango, which is positive for the trading business [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to integrate and realize cost savings and synergies from recent acquisitions while expanding both domestic and geographic reach [23] - The strategic partnership with Tether is expected to enhance liquidity and provide opportunities for growth in the physical gold markets [70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating rapidly evolving market conditions and highlighted increased consumer demand across platforms [6] - The company anticipates a strong quarter ahead, driven by elevated consumer demand and expanding premium spreads [8] Other Important Information - The company has entered into an agreement with Tether Investments for the purchase of approximately $125 million of common shares, which is expected to provide increased funding and flexibility [4] - The board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on March 1, 2026 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comparison of gold and silver performance in the December quarter - Management noted a shift back to silver, with silver now representing about 50% of total volume, and premiums for one-ounce silver products significantly higher than three months ago [29][30] Question: Impact of widening spreads on profitability - Management indicated expectations for a strong quarter due to widening spreads [34] Question: Challenges in keeping popular SKUs in inventory - Management stated that having two mints allows for greater product availability compared to competitors, although some challenges with delayed delivery remain [44][46] Question: Tether investment impact on profitability - Management expects a significant drop in interest expense and improved liquidity from the Tether investment [41] Question: Future of the Tether relationship - Management sees numerous opportunities for collaboration with Tether, including potential expansion in services and product offerings [66][70]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of 2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $77,100 after a previous rise of approximately 7% from lows near $74,000 [1] - Ether (ETH) is down 4.7%, trading at $2,260 [1] - The selloff in cryptocurrencies coincides with strong gains in gold and silver, indicating a rebound from previous price drops [1] Stock Performance - U.S. stocks, particularly AI-related companies, are declining, with notable drops in Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), and Microsoft (MSTR), all down by 3%-5% [2] - The largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is also experiencing losses, down more than 2% [2] - Coinbase (COIN) and Bullish (BLSH) are similarly down by comparable amounts [2] Company-Specific Developments - Galaxy Digital (GLXY) shares have fallen over 12% following disappointing fourth-quarter results [3] - Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) has also seen a decline of 3.5% [3] - Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI infrastructure, such as TeraWulf (WULF), are seeing gains, with TeraWulf up 12% after acquiring two industrial sites that could double its power capacity to 2.8 gigawatts [4] - Cipher Mining (CIFR) shares increased by 4% after announcing plans to raise $2 billion in the junk bond market for its Black Pearl data center in Texas, which will provide 300 megawatts of capacity under a long-term lease with Amazon Web Services [4] Market Sentiment - Options flows indicate that traders are preparing for a short-lived bounce from weekend lows below $75,000, reflecting a lack of demand for upside exposure [5] - Heavy demand for near-term downside protection has led to a distortion in the options market, with short-dated volatility exceeding longer-dated contracts, a situation known as backwardation [6] - Analysts are monitoring when volatility stabilizes and the options curve normalizes back into contango as a potential signal for local lows [6]

Last Friday, the silver market experienced what appeared to be a historic collapse. Price smashed from the $118 area down to the low $70s in a matter of hours, wiping out weeks of gains in a single session.There was no war, no surprise interest-rate hike, no industrial demand shock. Just a sudden, violent move that left traders staring at their screens wondering what happened.Analysts from the Sirius Report summed it up as an impossibility."We called it a ‘10 sigma event,' which is organically an impossibil ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the differences in commodity investment strategies, as funds labeled under "broad commodities" can behave very differently based on their sector allocation, risk management, and futures curve navigation [2][16]. Group 1: Fund Strategies - The WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity Strategy Fund (GCC) employs an active strategy that focuses on minimizing contango and maximizing backwardation, with a diversified approach across approximately 26 contracts and up to 5% bitcoin exposure [3]. - The Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) follows a rules-based methodology that allocates commodities based on market liquidity and global production metrics, selecting futures contracts with the highest implied roll yield [4]. - The First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy Fund (FTGC) utilizes a long-only, actively managed strategy that forecasts volatility and correlations to construct a portfolio targeting a consistent risk profile [5]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Recent performance indicates that GCC's higher allocation to metals has led to better outcomes compared to peers, particularly during a period when energy commodities lagged [8][13]. - The article highlights that performance differences among commodity strategies are largely driven by sector exposure rather than timing, with metals outperforming energy in the current market environment [12][14]. - Over longer time horizons, while returns may converge, differences in strategy management of sector exposure and volatility persist, indicating that short-term regime shifts can significantly impact performance [12][18]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - GCC and FTGC represent active management strategies that prioritize risk-aware portfolio design, contrasting with PDBC's fully rules-based approach that follows predefined schedules and constraints [6][10]. - The article stresses that not all broad commodity strategies are equal, and understanding the underlying sector exposures is crucial for investors seeking real asset exposure [16][17]. - A flexible, actively managed approach like GCC allows for evolving sector exposures, enhancing the likelihood of capturing emerging trends in commodities [18].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are experiencing a significant upward trend driven by a combination of industrial demand, speculative interest, and geopolitical factors, creating a "perfect storm" for higher prices [1][4][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is increasingly in demand for applications in solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, while supply is constrained due to China's export controls and a supply deficit of 230 million ounces in 2025 [2][18]. - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating that spot prices for silver are higher than futures prices, reflecting tight market conditions [7][8]. Market Behavior and Speculation - Speculative interest in silver has surged, with a notable increase in retail inflows into silver ETFs, reaching a record of $921.8 million recently [15][16]. - Futures traders are predominantly long on silver, with low short interest, indicating bullish sentiment in the market [20]. Price Movements and Historical Context - Silver prices have risen over 25% since the beginning of 2026, with some analysts predicting prices could exceed $100 per ounce [4][25]. - The recent price rally has been characterized by extreme volatility, with futures prices significantly above historical moving averages, reminiscent of past market events in the 1980s [24][25]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Escalating geopolitical concerns and heavy government debt loads in developed countries are contributing to the demand for silver as a hedge against economic instability [17]. - The migration of silver supplies from London to New York due to trade concerns has further tightened the market, impacting liquidity [10][11].

Core Insights - Silver has experienced a remarkable rally of 152% year-to-date, marking its strongest annual performance since 1978, significantly outperforming gold, which is up 66.22% [1] - Both silver and gold reached record highs recently, with silver surpassing $82 per ounce before a subsequent decline of 14% [1] Market Drivers - Silver's rally is driven by its unique position as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, with strong demand from sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and advanced electronics [2][5] - The initial surge was influenced by economic policies and trade tensions, particularly those initiated by President Donald Trump, alongside a supply crunch due to increasing industrial demand [2] Supply Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face its seventh consecutive year of deficit by 2025, with a cumulative shortfall of nearly 800 million ounces since 2021, as mine output continues to decline [4] - The available inventory of freely traded silver has significantly decreased, making the market more sensitive to demand fluctuations, which could lead to substantial price increases with even minor demand upticks [4] Market Conditions - Silver has seen its best monthly performance since the late 1970s, gaining 33.16% since early December, attributed to tightening physical supplies and low inventories [6] - The market has entered a state of "backwardation," where spot prices exceed futures prices, indicating acute physical shortages [6][7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices could test the $85–$100 per ounce range as structural deficits widen [8] - Investors are encouraged to consider exposure to silver through options like the iShares Silver Trust, which holds physical silver [9] Investment Opportunities - The surge in silver prices has not yet been fully reflected in the valuations of leading producers and junior miners, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] - Notable performers in the silver mining sector include: - Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (+102.14% YTD) - Americas Gold And Silver Corp. (+452.04% YTD) - Coeur Mining Inc. (+195.32% YTD) - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (+181.46% YTD) [10]