Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 across all three markets, driven primarily by bond yields rather than earnings growth [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Market Positioning** - Growth stocks are identified as the optimal investment choice for 2026 [1] - **Performance Determinants** - The key performance determinant for growth stocks will be bond yields instead of earnings growth [1]

Speaking of, let's bring in Alan's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Ali, and he too is at Post 9 and it's nice to see you in person as well. >> Thanks for having me. >> So, what what do you make of the move below 4% on the 10-year.And what Steve just showed us 100% the market's convinced for this month and then in December and then 65 for January. Is is are we over our expectations a bit or no. No, I think the moves are motivated by what you discussed earlier, which is concern about credit, concerns about r ...

Stock indexes and bond yields pulled back Thursday afternoon as investors digested a slew of earnings reports, trade tensions, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, while safe-haven gold set its latest record high. https://t.co/8JIbUbZVsA ...

All right, meantime, bond yields, they are down across the board on that social media post and kind of a a riskoff perspective of this entire market. Let's bring in Rick Santelli to kind of make sense of all this. Rick, I'm looking at a tenure at 4.05% one day.I get it, not a trend. Is there a risk here of sub4. You know, I think there there is a risk, but I also think the catalyst for this move makes the risk of a test of 4% on a closing basis less technically significant.So, as you see the charts I put in ...

Market Overview - Bond yields are down across the board, indicating a risk-off sentiment in the market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.05%, with a potential risk of falling below 4% [1][4] - The NASDAQ is experiencing a key reversal day, with a new intraday all-time high followed by a reversal lower [2] Treasury Market Dynamics - New low yields are being observed across the entire Treasury curve, from 2-year to 30-year bonds [3] - The 10-year yield settled at 4.14%, down nearly 10 basis points on the day, and only down about 7-8 basis points for the week [4] Currency and Economic Indicators - The dollar index has shown resilience, currently around 99, up from approximately 97.75 last week [5][6] - The market appears to believe that the impact of recent tariff news will be short-lived, similar to previous tariff-related market movements [5] Potential Market Reversals - Any positive developments regarding tariffs or trade relations, such as favorable social media posts, could lead to a rapid reversal in market trends [6][7] - The significance of the closing yield for the 10-year Treasury is emphasized, particularly in relation to the 4% threshold [8]

Group 1 - The expectation is that bond yields, particularly the ten-year yield, may continue to decline due to attractive real yields in the bond markets and a decrease in inflation [1][2] - A formal announcement regarding a new inflation target could lead to further declines in bond yields, currency appreciation, and a reduction in the inflation rate [2][3] - There have been significant capital inflows into the South African bond markets, exceeding 409 billion rand in recent months, which is a crucial factor for the bond market's performance [4] Group 2 - The yield differential between the U.S. Treasury ten-year yield and the South African government bond yield is favorable for South Africa, contributing to the positive sentiment in the bond market [5] - The inflation differential between South Africa and the U.S. has narrowed, indicating a faster dis-inflation rate in South Africa, which is important for investors [5] - There is a renewed positive sentiment towards emerging markets, with South Africa being a notable player in this category [5] Group 3 - Central banks globally are increasing their gold holdings, with the price of gold recently spiking to a record $4,000, which may influence the South African Central Bank's strategy [6] - South Africa maintains significant gold reserves and has the capacity to extract more gold if necessary, indicating a strong position in terms of gold assets [7] - Concerns about rising debt levels are prevalent, but emerging market debt has not increased as significantly as that of advanced economies, suggesting a different risk profile [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The potential impact of a Trump-led Federal Reserve on inflation and interest rates is debated, with some suggesting it could lead to lower inflation despite concerns of higher rates [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the bond market exhibited significant reactions, with immediate drops in bond yields observed [2][5]. - Two-year bond yields fell sharply, while 10-year bond yields dropped by nearly 10 basis points within 90 minutes, a movement typically seen over a month [5]. - The bond market's response indicates a belief that an independent Fed may contribute to higher long-term inflation [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Economist Peter St. Onge noted that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to lower inflation and interest rates, contrary to some expectations [3][6]. - St. Onge speculated that Wall Street might not receive automatic bailouts under a Trump-controlled Fed, suggesting that increased scrutiny on money printing could result in lower inflation [7].

Market Overview - The benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, experienced declines, with Sensex dropping by 118.96 points (0.15%) to 81,785.74 and Nifty falling by 44.80 points (0.18%) to 25,069.20, ending their respective rallies [3][10] - The trading session was characterized by volatility and profit-taking, particularly in IT and auto sectors, as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting [1][4][5] Sector Performance - Major laggards among Sensex firms included Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Infosys, Titan, Sun Pharma, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, and Power Grid [4] - Conversely, gainers included Bajaj Finance, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, and Reliance Industries [4] - The BSE Focused IT index saw the largest drop of 0.63%, followed by IT (0.60%), consumer durables (0.50%), teck (0.45%), and auto (0.32%) [9] Investor Sentiment - Investors are adopting a cautious stance, awaiting guidance on future interest rate trajectories from the Fed, despite a 25-bps rate cut being largely anticipated [7][10] - Strong domestic consumption is supporting market sentiment, alongside optimism regarding trade deals and expected earnings recovery in H2FY26 [7] Broader Market Trends - Broader markets showed positive movement, with the Smallcap index climbing 0.66% and the Midcap index gaining 0.40% [8] - Realty sector surged by 2.47%, while capital goods, industrials, telecommunication, and power sectors also advanced [9] Global Market Context - In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed positively, while Shanghai's SSE Composite index declined [11] - Global oil benchmark Brent crude increased by 0.48% to $67.31 per barrel [11]

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Further easing is anticipated, potentially bringing rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months, with the fed funds futures market indicating a drop to less than 3% by the end of 2026 [1] Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will lead to lower Treasury yields, encouraging risk-taking in the economy and financial markets [2] - However, the expected Fed rate cuts may primarily affect the two-year Treasury yield, while long-term yields could remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and persistent inflation [2] Debt Supply and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills and longer-duration Treasury notes to finance tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially adding over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years and increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion [3] - The increased supply of debt is likely to pressure bond prices down and lift yields, particularly for longer-term securities [4] Investor Sentiment and Yield Curve - Investors are demanding higher yields for long-term Treasuries due to concerns about inflation and dollar depreciation linked to high debt levels, which may prevent long-term bond yields from falling significantly [6] - The ongoing steepening of the yield curve indicates rising concerns about fiscal policy, as reflected in the widening spread between different maturities of Treasury yields [5]

Economic Outlook - The economy is not in recession, and the expected easing from the Fed is likely to support market sentiment in the coming months, limiting equity market downside [3][12] - A strong earnings backdrop and positive forward earnings guidance from market leaders contribute to a constructive market setup for the next six months [2][3] Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - The upcoming resumption of the Fed's easing cycle is a key focus, with expectations of a potential rate cut driven by weakness in the labor market [1][2] - Concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly in light of political pressures, could impact market reactions, especially in the long end of the yield curve [5][6] Market Concentration and Valuation - The concentration of a few leading companies in the S&P 500, particularly the "MAG 7," is not viewed as a problem due to strong earnings supporting their valuations [7][8] - The artificial intelligence theme driving market leaders is seen as a less interest rate-sensitive factor, potentially shielding the market from disruptions related to easing expectations [8][9] Labor Market and Consumer Impact - Recent jobless claims have shown a slight increase, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, which could affect consumer spending [9][10] - A significant deterioration in the labor market is necessary to confirm a sustained easing cycle, with current inflation risks still present [11][12] Sector Analysis - Financials are identified as a potential beneficiary of expected rate cuts, particularly if a bull steepener occurs in the yield curve [14][15] - The financial sector may benefit from a more favorable net interest margin environment and potential financial deregulation in the coming months [15]