Core Thesis - The Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC) is viewed positively due to its diversified exposure in cyclical industrial markets, which helps mitigate macroeconomic sensitivity and supports demand stability despite economic uncertainties [2][5]. Financial Performance - GRC's Q3 2025 net sales reached $172.8 million, reflecting a 2.8% year-over-year increase, while net income for the first nine months rose to $39.3 million from $29.1 million [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $97.3 million, indicating resilient pricing and order growth, although margin pressures are noted [3]. Order and Demand Trends - Incoming orders for the first nine months of 2025 totaled $550.2 million, marking a year-over-year increase of approximately 10.9%, suggesting sustained demand [2]. - The company benefits from a large installed base and aftermarket service revenue, which contribute to recurring revenue visibility [3]. Management and Dividend Policy - GRC demonstrates disciplined management with a 53-year streak of dividend growth, recently increasing the dividend to $0.19 per quarter, indicating strong cash generation [4]. Investment Considerations - The investment case presents an asymmetric risk/reward profile, with potential upside from margin recovery and backlog conversion, while downside risks include cyclical order weakness and sustained cost inflation [5]. - The company's valuation is considered reasonable at normalized industrial multiples, supported by dividend returns and clear catalysts such as margin trends and capital allocation decisions [5].

We came across a bullish thesis on Ultrapar Participações S.A. on Danny’s Substack by Danny Green. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on UGP. Ultrapar Participações S.A.'s share was trading at $5.16 as of February 18th. UGP’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.94 and 11.74 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. gas, fuel, handsome, manual, technician, glasses, coveralls, hat, machinery, red, valve, pipeline, pump, field, jack, crude, drilling, engineer, black, technology, smiling, Zorand ...

Core Thesis - Zenas BioPharma, Inc. is viewed positively due to its transition from a pre-revenue stage to commercialization, with projected revenues rising to $30 million by 2026 and significant growth thereafter [2][5] Company Overview - Zenas BioPharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing immunology-based therapies [2] - The company's lead asset, obexelimab, targets IgG4-Related Disease (IgG4-RD), a market currently lacking approved therapies, providing a unique at-home treatment option [2] Product Potential - Obexelimab's mechanism via CD19/FcγRIIb preserves patients' immune systems, presenting a potential competitive advantage, although recent trial data indicated efficacy may not meet "best-in-class" expectations [3] - The drug is also being tested for Warm Autoimmune Hemolytic Anemia and Multiple Sclerosis, positioning Zenas for a long-term role in treating B-cell-mediated autoimmune diseases [3] Financial Position - As of early 2026, Zenas had approximately $270 million in cash, which is expected to support operations through 2028 [4] - The company has expanded its pipeline through in-licensing strategies, reducing early-stage discovery risks [4] Market Valuation - Current market focus on hazard ratio metrics may undervalue ZBIO, which is trading at a significant discount to its potential [5] - With successful regulatory filings and commercialization, Zenas could achieve a market capitalization up to five times its current value, indicating a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity [5]

Core Thesis - Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS) is viewed positively due to its strong brand equity and unique position in the sports and live entertainment market, with shares trading at $328.54 as of February 19th, and trailing and forward P/E ratios of 85.90 and 72.46 respectively [1][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Demand - MSGS combines iconic New York franchises, particularly the Knicks and Rangers, which drives robust fan demand, high attendance, premium ticket pricing, and increasing sponsorship and merchandise revenues [3]. - The company benefits from secular interest in sports and diversified revenue streams, although it faces challenges from changing media consumption patterns and economic downturns affecting discretionary spending [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Fiscal 2025 showed modest revenue growth to approximately $1.04 billion, supported by resilient per-game revenue, sponsorship, and suite income, but operating income declined sharply due to margin compression and rising costs [4]. - Cash generation from per-game revenues remains strong but is volatile due to operating costs, media rights dynamics, and long-term lease obligations [6]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage and Risks - MSGS's competitive advantage is moderate, stemming from the historic legacy and geographic rarity of its franchises, which create pricing leverage and recurring revenue, but performance slumps and media rights erosion can weaken this advantage [5]. - Key risks include declines in media rights revenue, economic slowdowns, poor team performance, and league disruptions, which could materially reduce earnings [6]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Potential - MSGS's stock price has appreciated by approximately 57.70% since previous coverage, highlighting a valuation gap between the worth of the Knicks and Rangers and MSGS's market price [7]. - Potential upside includes undervaluation relative to private franchise sales, favorable media deal renegotiations, deeper playoff runs, and expansion into digital fan engagement and betting partnerships [6][8].

Company Overview - H.B. Fuller Company operates as a moderately advantaged industrial chemicals company, supplying highly engineered adhesives and sealants across various sectors including manufacturing, packaging, construction, consumer goods, and automotive [2] - The company's competitive advantage is derived from strong B2B customer relationships and technical expertise, making its products difficult to replace once qualified [2] Business Model and Financial Performance - The business model focuses on manufacturing and selling adhesives, with diversification across end markets and geographies adding complexity [3] - H.B. Fuller has demonstrated financial resilience, with gross margins around 29–31% and improving revenue trends following cyclical softness, supported by disciplined reinvestment in product development and targeted M&A [3] - Free cash flow generation is steady, although capital-intensive operations and industrial cycles can lead to periodic volatility [4] Growth and Market Dynamics - Growth is linked to broader industrial demand, with opportunities in electronics, automotive, and renewable adhesives, though the company remains sensitive to cyclical downturns in manufacturing and construction [4] - Valuation appears reasonable relative to peers, reflecting stability rather than breakout growth, with a 2–3% dividend yield providing an income component [4] Management and Strategy - Management is characterized as pragmatic and disciplined, focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, and measured capital deployment, although long-term strategy communication may lack clarity [5] - Overall, H.B. Fuller presents a stable investment opportunity with a moderate moat, resilient cash flow, and diversified market exposure, appealing to investors seeking predictable operational fundamentals in engineered chemicals [5]

Core Thesis - Stepan Company is viewed positively due to its diversified chemical end markets, which provide resilience against commodity price fluctuations and macroeconomic factors [2][6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Stepan Company reported consolidated net sales of approximately $590.3 million, with global volumes increasing by about 1% year-over-year [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose by approximately 6% to $56.2 million, while cash from operations totaled $69.8 million, generating free cash flow of around $40.2 million [3]. - GAAP net income decreased significantly by 54% to $10.8 million, attributed to higher interest, taxes, and an $8.6 million pre-tax impact from the Pasadena alkoxylation start-up [3]. Operational Insights - The company operates in various sectors including auto, construction, agrochemicals, and consumer markets, which helps mitigate risks from single-point shocks [2]. - Segment performance varied, with strength in Polymers & Specialty, while Surfactants faced challenges due to feedstock inflation and start-up effects [3][4]. Management Strategy - Management emphasizes transparency regarding start-up costs, feedstock pressures, and capital allocation, including ongoing dividends [4]. - Key operational risks include the commissioning of the Pasadena facility, which could affect margins if execution issues or cost overruns occur [4]. Valuation and Investment Perspective - The valuation is considered attractive relative to normalized EBITDA, with steady cash conversion offering downside protection [5]. - Stepan Company is recommended as a core cyclical industrial allocation, with suggested portfolio sizing of 1–3% conservatively and 3–6% for active positioning, contingent on operational de-risking and feedstock stabilization [5].

Core Thesis - RPM International Inc. is positioned as a leader in the global, non-cyclical repair, maintenance, and specialty coatings market through a decentralized, acquisition-driven model, with a potential to double sales over the next five years [3][6] Growth Strategy - The company's growth strategy relies on small, strategic acquisitions and geographic expansion, with Europe projected to lead growth at 20.7% in Q1 2026 [3] - Core organic growth remains modest in the low- to mid-single-digit range, making acquisitions essential for accelerating growth despite introducing integration and debt risks [4] Operational Efficiency - RPM's decentralized culture allows acquired companies to maintain autonomy while leveraging centralized resources, creating a self-sustaining consolidation engine in a fragmented industry [4] - Operational improvements under the MAP 2025 program have expanded gross margins toward 42%, with management guiding high-single- to low-double-digit adjusted EBIT growth in FY 2026 [5] Brand Strength and Market Position - The portfolio includes trusted brands like Rust-Oleum, DAP, and Zinsser, enabling the company to command premium pricing and offset weaknesses in certain segments with strengths in others [5] - Customers value RPM for its durable, problem-solving products that align with sustainability goals, supported by initiatives like "Building a Better World" [5] Financial Strategy - Capital allocation focuses on disciplined M&A, organic growth investment, and consistent shareholder returns, highlighted by 52 consecutive years of dividend increases [6] - A long-term consolidation strategy could drive RPM to become a global leader in niche markets, expanding EBIT margins into the high teens and justifying a premium valuation [6] Market Perception - Market misperceptions regarding cyclicality and complexity have led to undervaluation, presenting a compelling investment opportunity with both near-term operational upside and long-term compounding potential [6]

Group 1 - Cheniere Energy, Inc. is positioned with a strong financial profile supported by a highly contracted business model, providing predictable cash flows and insulation from LNG spot market volatility [2] - Over 90% of Cheniere's liquefaction capacity is secured under long-term take-or-pay agreements with investment-grade counterparties, enabling stable revenue generation [2] - The company owns the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal, which has a capacity of over 30 million tonnes per annum and has delivered consistent operational performance since 2016 [3] Group 2 - Recent financial results show EBITDA growth driven by improved margins and cost control, with revenues expanding due to favorable contract pricing structures [4] - Management is focused on strengthening the balance sheet through refinancing and debt reduction, targeting leverage near 4.0x while maintaining ample liquidity [5] - The planned Sabine Pass expansion is expected to be a significant long-term value driver with attractive projected returns [5] Group 3 - The LNG industry is experiencing a multi-year capacity expansion cycle that could pressure global prices, but Cheniere's conservative strategy of contracting capacity prior to project sanctioning reduces cycle risk [6] - Support from parent Cheniere Energy Inc. provides financial flexibility and operational synergies, enhancing the overall investment outlook [7] - The combination of contracted cash flows, balance sheet improvement, disciplined capital allocation, and visible growth opportunities supports a constructive investment outlook with limited downside risk [7]

Core Thesis - On Holding AG (ONON) is positioned as a compelling long-term investment opportunity due to its strong growth potential, innovative technology, and disciplined capital allocation strategy [1][5]. Company Overview - On Holding AG is a Swiss premium sportswear company founded in 2010, known for its proprietary CloudTec® cushioning technology that enhances running performance [2]. - The company operates in over 80 countries, utilizing both direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels, with flagship stores in major cities like Zurich, New York, Tokyo, and Palo Alto [2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, On reported net sales of CHF 794.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24.9%, driven by strong demand across various regions, particularly in Asia-Pacific, which saw over 90% growth [3]. - The company maintains high gross margins of 65.7%, indicating strong profitability [3]. Strategic Positioning - On Holding AG has a narrow economic moat due to its proprietary technology, premium brand positioning, and deepening direct-to-consumer engagement, which enhances customer loyalty [3]. - The management, led by CEO/CFO Martin Hoffmann, focuses on disciplined capital allocation, investing in innovation, brand marketing, and DTC infrastructure while maintaining limited debt and holding CHF 961.8 million in cash [4]. Market Competitiveness - On's global expansion and strong operational efficiency position it favorably against larger competitors such as Nike, Adidas, HOKA, and Lululemon [4]. - The stock trades near its fair value with a PEG ratio of 1.18, supported by projected EPS growth of 25–26% over the next five years [5]. Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its premium apparel and accessories segment, which now contributes around 7% of sales and has increased by 86.9% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [2]. - Expanding geographic penetration and category diversification are key factors contributing to On's growth potential [5].

We came across a bullish thesis on BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. on Canadian Cashflow’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BJ. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s share was trading at $99.52 as of February 11th. BJ’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.93 and 21.28 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Biggest Industries in America BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) operates a proven warehouse retail model in the U.S., positioned between traditional grocery stores and large-sca ...