Stop guessing where the Bitcoin price is going and start looking at the math. The data is telling a story that most people are completely missing. Glen C is back on Bitcoin for millennials. He's a quantitative analyst who has spent the last 5 years obsessing over the mathematical models that actually drive the Bitcoin market. In this episode, we're going through a lot of slides walking through his latest research on the power law and why the traditional ideas of havingss and bubbles are being replaced by so ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has led to a significant spike in oil prices, triggering a risk-off reaction in the markets, with equities declining while gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar are rising [2]. Market Reactions - Equity indices have experienced a decline, while energy majors and defense companies have seen stock price increases, indicating a divergence in market performance [3]. - U.S. benchmark Treasury prices are lower, resulting in higher yields, as concerns over inflation rise due to the increasing cost of crude oil [4]. Historical Context and Analysis - Historical data suggests that geopolitical risk events typically do not lead to sustained volatility in equities, with the S&P 500 showing average increases of 2%, 6%, and 8% over one, six, and twelve months post-event [5]. - The most significant impact on stocks over a 12-month period occurred during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, which caused a recession due to an oil supply crunch [6]. Current Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is characterized as an early cycle, with an accelerating earnings recovery, which may mitigate the potential negative impact of rising oil prices [7]. - The year-over-year change in crude oil prices is currently modest at around 5%, suggesting that unless there is a significant spike in oil prices, the bullish outlook for U.S. equities over the next 6-12 months is unlikely to change [7]. Future Projections - With improving earnings and an expected acceleration in economic growth, a target of 7,800 for the S&P 500 by the end of the year has been set [8]. - In a cautious investment environment, the healthcare sector is identified as a preferred defensive sector [8].

This chart is all you need to know.Data is the most important factor for me when it comes to investments into #Altcoins & #Bitcoin.In this case;- The 2W RSI is the lowest since previous bear market bottoms.- This aligns with the lowest point in the business cycle.As a matter of fact, the current status of the business cycle is the lowest it has been since the existence of Bitcoin.Yet, Bitcoin is moving at $70,000-80,000. Higher than the all-time high in 2021.Big parties are buying positions within the asset ...

This is the best chart in #Crypto & #BitcoinThe representation of the current status of the markets can't be explained by a better chart.My thesis:- The markets have peaked in December '24.- The markets are bottoming during this month.- There's a strong bull market for 2026 & 2027.The main reasoning is that there's a strong case for the markets being tied to the macroeconomic behavior overall.Crypto doesn't move independently anymore, no, it's connected with all the other markets and is being treatened as a ...

“Business cycle”“ISM”Any day now guysIf the altcoin is down 95% when business cycle actually hits - what’s the point??Follow the trendDon’t over complicate itBear price trend = GTFORex (@R89Capital):I wonder if Raoul has sold his SUI yet"Banana Zone"Floppy wiener zone. https://t.co/SPqWm0GpCh ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle exists, but its correlation with time-based assumptions is diminishing, with other factors becoming more relevant [4] - The 4-year halving cycle still exists as a technical component of Bitcoin, but its relationship with price appreciation or depreciation is weakening [3] - The market has witnessed an occasional 35% correction [2] Impact of ETFs - Bitcoin ETFs have introduced nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity, changing the price dynamics of Bitcoin [5] - Institutional demand through ETFs has established a new Bitcoin price floor, more than 100% higher than the previous one [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Bitcoin is a high Beta risk-on asset that performs well during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest or when Gold accelerates [8] - Liquidity cycles before 2008 averaged 8-10 years, contrasting with the 4-year liquidity cycle observed after 2008 [11] Correlation Analysis - The strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) is a core indicator of strength for businesses in the US and the global economy, impacting risk-on investment behavior [15] - Historically, bottoms in CNY/USD have coincided with bottoms in ETH/BTC [15] - Comparing current cycles to previous ones suggests the Bitcoin cycle might be extended, potentially mirroring the middle of 2016 or 2019 [17] Future Outlook - Looking forward to 2026-2027, several factors suggest a potentially bullish outlook, including Bank of America opening up Bitcoin ETF allocations, the Clarity Act enabling DeFi solutions for institutions, and the FED potentially lowering interest rates [21][22] - The current stage is comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019, suggesting the market is nowhere near a top [20]

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - The Bitcoin cycle, often based on the 4-year halving cycle, is a core investment dynamic in Web3, but its relationship with price appreciation is diminishing due to other factors [1][3] - The market experienced a 35% correction, highlighting the ongoing debate between bulls and bears regarding the 4-year cycle's validity [2] - The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly altered the price dynamics, injecting nearly 60,000 BTC in liquidity and establishing a new price floor more than 100% higher than the previous one [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic headwinds, including quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates, continue to influence the Bitcoin cycle [6] - Bitcoin's performance is inversely correlated with the strength of Gold, as it thrives during economic growth but struggles during social and economic unrest [7] - Liquidity cycles were significantly longer before 2008, averaging between 8-10 years, suggesting the current cycle might be in the middle of a larger bull cycle [9] Correlation and Future Outlook - The correlation between the strength of the Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Ethereum against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) may indicate an extended Bitcoin cycle, potentially mirroring the mid-stages of 2016 or 2019 [12][13][14][15] - Combining the business cycle with Bitcoin cycles suggests the market might be in the middle of a peak bear phase, comparable to Q1/Q2 2016 or Q4 2019 [17][18] - Looking forward to 2026-2027, factors like Bank of America's allowance for Bitcoin ETF allocation, the Clarity Act, and potential quantitative easing (QE) suggest a less bearish outlook than the traditional 4-year cycle would indicate [19][20]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint indicates that three macro signals have shifted, suggesting potential implications for both traditional and crypto markets [1] - Inflation remains steady at an annual rate of 2.5%, close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating stabilization rather than resurgence [1][2] - Consumer data shows uneven pressure in sectors like grocery and insurance, highlighting a disconnect between aggregate inflation and real-world experiences [2] Group 2 - Liquidity appears frozen due to the US government shutdown, which has removed over $200 billion from the financial system [3] - The Treasury General Account has increased from approximately $800 billion to over $1 trillion, tightening funding across banks and money markets [3] - Analysts suggest that once the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity could surge, potentially benefiting fiscal and market conditions [4]

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Ok, let’s get one thing straight…Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator ...

Investment Strategy - Long-term holders should focus on the increasing digitalization trend [1] - The key question is whether tomorrow will be more digital than today [1] - For a time horizon of 5 years or more, short-term liquidity and business cycles are less relevant [1] Market Analysis - The need to finance $10 trillion in the next 12 months is a crucial factor [1] - The liquidity and business cycle should be monitored to assess market conditions [1]