The purpose of this article is to discuss the ongoing geopolitical climate with respect to the US and the European Union. This is particularly relevant for my outlook for the upcoming months in how I will beI have rebranded to embrace my working-class and public school roots. This is a testament for how successful investing can be life changing.I have worked in Financial Services since 2008. My undergrad was in New York, where I earned a Bachelors in Finance as a scholarship Division 1 athlete (Men's Tennis ...

Core Viewpoint - The article compares two high-yielding mortgage REITs, AGNC Investment and Starwood Property Trust, highlighting the differences in their investment strategies and risk profiles, with Starwood being presented as a more stable option for income investors. Group 1: AGNC Investment - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield of over 14%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield [1] - The REIT primarily invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are low-risk but also yield lower returns [3] - AGNC uses leverage to enhance returns, achieving a return on equity of around 17% in the third quarter, aligning with its cost of capital [4] - The REIT has a history of dividend cuts, reducing its payment from $0.22 per share in 2014 to $0.12 per share currently, with the last cut occurring in 2020 [6] Group 2: Starwood Property Trust - Starwood Property Trust has a diversified portfolio, with 53% in commercial real estate loans, 9% in residential loans, and 10% in infrastructure-backed loans, providing stable interest income [7] - The REIT also invests directly in properties, generating stable and steadily rising rental income [9] - Starwood's recent acquisition of Fundamental Income Properties for $2.2 billion enhances its diversification and is expected to provide stable cash flow with a 17-year average lease term and a 2.2% annual lease escalation rate [10] - Starwood has maintained a stable dividend rate for over a decade without any reductions, making it a reliable income source [11] Group 3: Investment Strategy Comparison - AGNC's focused investment strategy allows for high returns but carries more risk, as evidenced by its declining dividend history [13] - In contrast, Starwood's diversified investment strategy reduces risk and provides flexibility to adapt to market conditions, allowing it to capitalize on various investment opportunities [12]

Core Insights - Akamai Technologies (AKAM) stock has increased by 25.9% over the last 5 trading days and is currently valued at $13 billion with a revenue of $4.1 billion, trading at $90.61 [2] - The company has shown a revenue growth of 4.2% over the past 12 months and maintains an operating margin of 15.4% [2] - Akamai's liquidity is characterized by a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.4 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1 [2] - The current valuation metrics include a P/E multiple of 25.7 and a P/EBIT multiple of 18.9 [2] Historical Performance - AKAM stock experienced a decline of 42.0% from its peak of $121.92 on April 20, 2022, to $70.75 on March 13, 2023, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% [6] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by January 23, 2024, and reached a new peak of $128.32 on February 11, 2024 [6] - In previous downturns, AKAM stock has shown varying degrees of decline and recovery, including a drop of 21.9% from its peak of $102.56 on February 19, 2020, and a full recovery by April 16, 2020 [7] Market Context - The stock has historically performed worse than the S&P 500 during economic downturns, which raises concerns about its downturn resilience [3] - The analysis suggests that a diversified investment strategy may yield better returns and protection against market drops compared to investing in a single stock like AKAM [4][8] - AKAM offers cloud services that secure, deliver, and optimize content and applications, providing protection against cyber threats and online attacks [5]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group stock has declined by 7% over the past month due to rising medical costs in Medicare Advantage plans, regulatory scrutiny, and margin pressures in the Optum division [2] - The stock has decreased by 46.5% over the last year, underperforming compared to competitors CVS and CNC, and currently has a PE ratio of 16.9 [4] Financial Performance - UnitedHealth maintains the highest operating margin among its peers at 6.1% [3] - The company reported a revenue growth of 10.5% over the past 12 months, which is robust but still trails behind competitors CNC and MOH [3] Market Position - The recent 8.7% decline in stock price highlights the importance of comparing UnitedHealth's performance with its peers to assess whether it is genuinely underperforming [6] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio has consistently outperformed its benchmark, indicating that a diversified investment strategy may offer better risk-adjusted returns compared to investing in individual stocks like UnitedHealth [5][7]

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock surged by 37% over the past three months, driven by a significant rise in revenue and an increasing valuation multiple [1][5] - The recent stock performance is attributed to strong Q3 delivery and earnings reports, an optimistic outlook, and updates on the upcoming mass-market R2 SUV [3][7] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 deliveries reached 13,201 vehicles, exceeding expectations and aligning with guidance [7] - Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) was -$0.70, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.72, with revenue hitting $1.56 billion, also exceeding predictions [7] - Rivian has refined its 2025 delivery guidance to a range of 41,500-43,500 vehicles, indicating a more precise outlook [7] Product Development - The launch of the R2 SUV is on schedule for the first half of 2026, with details regarding a Launch Edition and bidirectional charging shared [7] Management Changes - A new compensation plan for CEO Scaringe has been unveiled, linking his compensation to share price and financial targets [7]

Core Insights - Roblox (RBLX) stock has seen a significant decline of 22.3% in less than a month, dropping from $138.56 on October 15, 2025, to $107.66 currently, following Q3 earnings that revealed strong revenue and user growth but a large net loss compared to the previous year [1] - Management has projected a slight margin decline in 2026 due to increased spending on infrastructure, developer exchange rates, and safety measures [1] - The stock's current valuation is considered very high, indicating potential for further downside, with a price target of $73 being plausible based on historical performance [3] Financial Performance - Q3 earnings showed significant revenue and user growth, but the company reported a large net loss compared to last year [1] - Historically, RBLX has yielded a median return of 4.9% over one year and a peak return of 41% following sharp dips of over 30% within 30 days [4][6] - The median duration to peak return after a dip event is 77.5 days, with a median maximum drawdown of 23% within one year following a dip [6] Investment Considerations - The stock has experienced four events since January 1, 2010, where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was met, indicating a pattern of recovery potential [6] - Purchasing during a dip should be carefully scrutinized, considering revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength to minimize risks [7] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes RBLX, has a history of exceeding benchmark indices, yielding superior returns with lower risk [7]

Core Insights - Tesla plans to expand production at its German factory from approximately 250,000 cars per year to one million, which involves constructing a new assembly hall the size of 60 soccer fields, although this may face local opposition [3] - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a slowdown, with increasing competition from Chinese automakers making Tesla's vehicles less appealing, particularly in international markets [4] - Tesla's Cybertruck has not met expectations, and competitors like Google's Waymo are advancing in self-driving technology, indicating that Tesla is not the only significant player in this space [4] Revenue Growth Comparison - Tesla's operating margin is 5.1%, which is moderate and higher than most competitors but lower than PACCAR's 11.4% [6] - Over the past 12 months, Tesla's revenue growth has been negative at -1.6%, trailing General Motors, Ford, and Rivian, but surpassing PACCAR and Oshkosh [6] - Tesla's stock surged by 88.1% in the last year, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 297.6, which is higher than its competitors [6] Operating Margin Comparison - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed benchmarks such as the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000, indicating a more stable investment experience [7]

Core Insights - Stride (LRN) stock plummeted by 54.4% in a single day despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 earnings, as investors reacted negatively to the company's weak outlook and operational challenges [2] - The adjusted EPS was $1.52, with a revenue increase of 12.7% to $620.9 million, surpassing estimates; however, management's guidance for future sales fell short of Wall Street expectations, raising concerns about growth momentum [2] - The company highlighted issues with technology rollouts and increased student withdrawal rates, indicating execution challenges that could hinder future growth [2] Financial Performance - Stride is currently valued at $3.0 billion with $2.5 billion in revenue, trading at $70.05 [7] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 17.3% over the past 12 months, with an operating margin of 17.8% [7] - Stride's stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 9.6 and a P/EBIT multiple of 7.2 [7] Historical Stock Performance - LRN stock has shown a median return of -2.4% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [7] - The stock dropped 32.8% from a peak of $46.56 on October 21, 2022, to $31.28 on December 30, 2022, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% [8] - Despite these declines, LRN stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by October 25, 2023, and reached a peak of $169.81 on August 27, 2025, before currently trading at $70.05 [8] Risk and Recovery Analysis - The stock has historically faced challenges in recovery after significant declines, with a notable drop of 59.2% from a high of $51.60 on August 5, 2020, to $21.05 on November 10, 2020, compared to a 33.9% decline for the S&P 500 [10] - LRN stock has consistently recovered to its pre-Crisis peaks after major downturns, indicating resilience in its long-term performance [10]

Core Insights - Shopify (SHOP) shares have surged 21% in the last month, currently priced at $172.95, but the valuation appears very high, with a potential price point of $121 being attainable [2][5][9] - The company has demonstrated strong operational performance, with revenues increasing by 29% from $7.8 billion to $10 billion in the last 12 months and a quarterly revenue rise of 31.1% [5][9] - Financial stability is strong, with a market capitalization of $224 billion, operating income of $1.5 billion, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5% [4][9] Valuation - The current valuation of Shopify is considered very high, leading to a recommendation to lower exposure to SHOP shares [2][5] - Despite strong growth, the stock seems relatively expensive due to its very high valuation metrics [3][5] Growth Performance - Shopify has experienced an average revenue growth rate of 26.0% over the past three years [5] - The company generated nearly $1.8 billion in operating cash flow during the last 12 months, with a cash-to-assets ratio of 40.0% [9] Profitability - Shopify's operating margin stands at 15.3%, with a net margin of about 23.4% [9] - Profitability appears moderate when compared to the broader market [6] Financial Stability - The company has a strong financial standing, with cash (including cash equivalents) amounting to $5.8 billion of total assets [9] - Shopify's performance during economic downturns has been weaker than the S&P 500 index, indicating some vulnerability [6][10] Market Comparison - SHOP stock has shown significant volatility, declining 84.8% from its peak in November 2021 to a low in October 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 during the same period [10] - The stock has not yet reclaimed its pre-crisis high, with the highest point since then being $172.95 in October 2025 [10]

Group 1: Company Comparison - Comfort Systems USA (FIX) has a lower Price to Operating Income (P/OpInc) ratio compared to Quanta Services (PWR) [1] - Despite the lower valuation, FIX demonstrates greater revenue and operating income growth than PWR [1] - The current discrepancy in valuation and performance suggests that investing in FIX may be more advantageous than investing in PWR [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - In August, apartment building starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 334,000 units, representing a 41% decline from the same month the previous year [3] - Quanta Services specializes in contracting services related to electric power infrastructure, including design, construction, maintenance, and emergency restoration [4] - A multi-factor evaluation approach is recommended for assessing investments, as it provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential risks and returns [5][7]