🇺🇸 NEW: Latest Fed study finds dollar's role in global debt markets rises and falls in cycles, not a steady trend toward greater dollarization or de-dollarization. https://t.co/tzBMjID19W ...

The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) is analyzing lifting the crypto ban on banks and allowing them to provide account holders with digital asset-related services, according to Argentinian newspaper, La Nacion. The new rules for banks could be ready as soon as April 2026, La Nacion reported, quoting sources close to the BCRA. The central bank issued a law prohibiting banks from carrying out or facilitating operations for their clients with cryptocurrencies, however, following Javier Milei becoming presid ...

Core Insights - The shift of dollar-pegged stablecoins from trading tools to retail products is driven by inflation and weak currencies in various economies [1][2] - Tether's strategy involves allocating profits into Bitcoin while expanding USDT issuance, and OKX has launched a high-yield stablecoin wallet and card in Brazil [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Access and Local Economic Conditions - Tether's ongoing Bitcoin allocation is linked to the growth of USDT, providing dollar liquidity through continuous crypto operations [3] - The demand for dollar proxies may increase as local savings tools lose purchasing power, raising questions about the speed of retail flow migration [3] Group 2: OKX's Product Launch in Brazil - OKX's new wallet and card offer interest on dollar balances and facilitate easy conversion from reais to stablecoins [4] - The design of these tools reduces friction in spending and may prompt regulatory assessments on their interaction with local financial systems [4] Group 3: Implications of Dollar Tokens - Dollar tokens can enhance payment access and remittances but may also lead to increased dollarization and liquidity moving outside traditional banks [5] - Regulatory clarity on reserves and cross-border use will determine whether these services complement or replace local financial systems [5] Group 4: Market Structure and Liquidity - A larger base of retail dollar balances can support smoother settlement across cryptocurrency pairs and stabilize funding during market fluctuations [6] - Controlled expansion of stablecoin supply with reliable redemption can help recover liquidity faster after market shocks [6] Group 5: Transparency and Yield - Issuers offering yield should enhance transparency regarding reserves and conduct regular independent checks to maintain user trust [7] - Clear explanations of asset and liability shifts are essential to prevent liquidity strains during periods of volatility [7]

Currency & Economic Policy - The dollar provides a store of value for those escaping inflation resulting from lenient economic policies [1] - America should not actively promote dollarization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is viewed as a mistake, with inflation remaining significantly above the target, necessitating higher rates instead [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Fed is perceived to have stopped hiking rates prematurely, which is considered a misstep [2][3]. - The current inflation rate is at least 50% above the Fed's target, indicating a need for higher interest rates [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet remains at $6.7 trillion, which is significantly larger than the $4 trillion at the end of QE3, suggesting ongoing debt monetization [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the Fed's rate cut, with a notable flattening of the yield curve, particularly in the two-year and ten-year bonds [7][9]. - Long-term interest rates are expected to rise following the rate cut, as the bond market does not believe inflation will return to the 2% target [14][15]. - The price of gold is projected to increase significantly due to the anticipated decline in the dollar's value and the Fed's easing stance on inflation [13][16]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is speculation that the December rate cut may be the last for a while, as dissenting opinions within the Fed indicate a shift in future policy [8][12]. - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is seen as a precursor to a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [16].

Gold Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing a rebound after facing back-to-back losses, marking the first negative week in ten weeks, indicating a shift in momentum [1] - A significant level for gold was around 4,000, which was tested recently, showcasing strong buying interest [2][3] Market Influences - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as these sanctions may drive money away from the dollar and into gold [4][5] - The concept of dollarization is gaining traction, with implications for gold as a tier one asset on balance sheets, supported by widening fiscal deficits [4][5] Mining Companies Insights - Companies like Newmont and Agnico Eagle are trading below their long-term forward price-to-earnings ratios, presenting potential investment opportunities [6] - Year-over-year earnings growth for Newmont is expected to be between 70-80%, with significant free cash flow anticipated [7] - Mining companies are experiencing stagnant input costs relative to revenue growth, which could lead to substantial capital returns to shareholders through buybacks or dividends [8]

Core Insights - Citi has raised its 2030 market cap outlook for stablecoins to $1.9 trillion, reflecting growth in the crypto market since the passage of the GENIUS Act in July [1] - Stablecoins account for 5%–10% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and are primarily used as an on-ramp to crypto [1] Market Dynamics - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar or gold, playing a crucial role in payment infrastructure and international money transfers [2] - Tether's USDT is the largest stablecoin, followed by Circle's USDC [2] Banking Impact - The impact of stablecoins on bank deposits is expected to be modest, with potential shifts in funding costs and lending appetites, similar to the rise of money market funds in the 1980s [3] - The stablecoin boom has increased activity on the Ethereum blockchain, although this dominance may diminish as issuers create their own networks [3] Adoption Drivers - The primary driver for stablecoin adoption is their role as a "store of value" in emerging markets facing inflation or weak institutions, which may increase demand for dollar assets [4] - Payments remain a niche use case, primarily involving small transactions [4] Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. dollar continues to dominate the stablecoin market, but euro-denominated stablecoins are beginning to gain traction [5] - New regulations in Hong Kong could significantly reshape the stablecoin landscape outside the U.S. [5]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a pullback, attributed to renewed tariff threats from President Trump, impacting risk assets [2][3][4] - The cryptocurrency market is seeing profit-taking from long-term investors, contributing to the decline [4][6] - There is a sentiment of caution among investors, with some opting to wait before making further investments in crypto assets [6][11] Group 2: Retirement Readiness in the U.S. - A report from Vanguard indicates that only 42% of Americans are on track to maintain their lifestyle in retirement, highlighting a significant challenge in retirement readiness [26][27] - The expansion of defined contribution plans has improved retirement readiness, particularly among younger generations, with about 50% of workers now having access to such plans [28][30] - The report shows that Gen Z and millennials are projected to be better prepared for retirement than baby boomers, largely due to increased access to defined contribution plans [29][30] Group 3: Financial Planning and Social Security - The depletion of the Social Security trust fund by 2033 could lead to a 23% decrease in benefits, which is a critical concern for low-wage earners [34][35] - Younger generations face challenges with student debt, which impacts their retirement readiness, but they still show a higher readiness level compared to baby boomers [36][37] - Baby boomers are at a disadvantage due to the transition from defined benefit to defined contribution plans during their peak earning years, but many have home equity that can be tapped to improve retirement readiness [39][40]

Group 1 - The recent rebound in oil prices, although not a full recovery, indicates a significant market reaction to social media posts and comments, suggesting a belief that tensions may not escalate further [1][2] - Market sentiment reflects an expectation that both the US and China will maintain current tariff levels around 53% rather than increasing them to 100%, despite a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop [2][3] - There has been a shift away from safe haven assets, with gold and silver rallying, indicating that the overall macro environment is not favorable for risk appetite [3] Group 2 - Concerns about a global economic slowdown, particularly between the US and China, have been prevalent, with China stockpiling significant amounts in its strategic petroleum reserve [4][5] - Chinese stockpiling has been a critical factor in the oil market, with 90% of stock increases this year going into Chinese reserves, keeping the physical market tight [5][6] - The broader implications of stockpiling extend beyond oil, touching on issues like dollarization and potential currency devaluation, which could affect import costs [7] Group 3 - For investors, the key question is whether the outcome of US-China trade talks matters for the oil market, with the consensus being that a resolution allowing for continued global economic growth is more important than which side prevails [8] - Current oil demand growth is estimated to be around 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day, which is manageable, but concerns arise if conditions worsen, potentially leading to demand growth dropping to half a million barrels per day or less [9][10] - Initial fears that drove market reactions have subsided, indicating that the worst-case scenarios may no longer be anticipated [10]

All right, Peter, I thought a great place to start the conversation. Let's just let you get your victory lap out of the way. Gold's at an all-time high. Silver's at an all-time high. What is driving the bull run in precious metals? Well, I think what you're seeing is the acceleration of ddollarization that began really a couple of years ago. I think uh what started it in earnest was the Biden sanctions uh against Russia which really was a wake-up call for the rest of the world uh that they need to get get r ...