Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Market Overview - After a strong opening driven by solid earnings from Meta Platforms and Microsoft, markets closed flat to down, with the S&P 500 losing 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.7% [2] - The IPO market saw a significant return with Figma going public, pricing its shares at $33 and closing at $115.50, a 250% increase from the IPO price [3][4] Company Earnings - Amazon reported second-quarter earnings that beat estimates, with AWS sales up 17.5%, but this growth was below competitors like Alphabet (32%) and Microsoft (39%), leading to a 7% drop in Amazon shares [5] - Apple also beat earnings estimates, with strong iPhone sales, but reported $800 million in tariffs for the quarter, expecting to pay $1.1 billion in the next quarter [5] Economic Indicators - The latest jobs report showed only 73,000 new jobs created, significantly below the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9] - Revisions for May and June jobs were down by 258,000, indicating a weaker job market than previously thought [9] Tariffs and Market Impact - President Trump enacted tariffs affecting Mexico, Canada, and China, with Canada’s tariffs increasing from 25% to 35%, contributing to market pullbacks [6] - The implementation of tariffs is expected to provide companies with more stability for future planning and forecasts [10] Market Sentiment - The strong IPO market and solid earnings data contrast with weaker job numbers, creating a mixed sentiment in the market [10] - The probability of a Fed rate cut increased from 40% to 67% following the jobs report, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [9][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's long-term investment approach, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, which began in high school in 2011 [1] - The author has recently combined long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, indicating a strategy that balances risk and return [1] - The primary focus of the author's coverage on Seeking Alpha includes REITs and financials, with occasional insights on ETFs and macro-driven stock ideas [1]

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks are experiencing significant growth, with the Russell 2000 Index rising nearly 9% in July 2025, outperforming larger indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts due to cooling inflation and a slowing job market are driving small-cap stock performance, as lower rates reduce borrowing costs for these companies [3] - Small-cap stocks are trading at a substantial discount of approximately 55% compared to large-cap stocks based on P/E ratios, prompting institutional investors to shift their focus towards under-owned small-cap areas [4] - A rebound is observed in small-cap companies within the financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors, which collectively represent over 50% of the Russell 2000, particularly benefiting regional banks and manufacturing stocks [5] Group 2: M&A Activity and Investor Sentiment - Increased M&A activity is noted among small and mid-sized firms in healthcare, biotech, and tech services, as large-cap companies seek growth through acquisitions, making small-caps attractive targets [6] - Retail investors are returning to small-cap stocks as recession fears diminish, with trading volumes in small-cap names and ETFs rising due to social media influence and AI-driven trading strategies [7] Group 3: Leading ETFs - Avantis U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF (AVSC) has increased by 10.1%, focusing on a diverse group of 1,287 small-cap stocks, with $1.7 billion in assets under management [9] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF (XSVM) is up 9.5%, tracking high momentum value stocks with a focus on financials, holding 122 stocks and $574.1 million in assets [10] - JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF (BBSC) has risen by 9.4%, providing exposure to 749 small-cap stocks with $566.5 million in assets [11] - iShares US Small Cap Value Factor ETF (SVAL) is up 9%, focusing on 250 small-cap companies with a significant portion in financials, holding $140.8 million in assets [12] - WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Fund (EES) has increased by 8.7%, targeting 901 small-cap companies with $606.9 million in assets [13]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index has reached a record high close of 6,300 for three consecutive sessions, driven by strong second-quarter results and economic resilience despite trade policy uncertainties [1] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has gained 8% year-to-date, with five stocks in the ETF rising over 60% this year [2] Corporate Earnings - The second-quarter earnings season has shown robust performance, with 62 S&P 500 companies reporting a 9.3% increase in earnings and 5.8% higher revenues compared to the previous year [2] - 82.3% of these companies have beaten EPS estimates, and the same proportion has exceeded revenue estimates [2] - Total Q2 earnings for the Mag 7, including Tesla and Alphabet, are expected to rise by 11.7% on 11.3% higher revenues [3] AI and Technology Sector - The ongoing AI boom is driving enthusiasm for large-cap tech stocks, significantly impacting the S&P 500 [4] - Investors are optimistic about long-term growth in AI applications, which is increasing demand for semiconductors, cloud computing, and software platforms [4] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has demonstrated surprising strength, with June retail sales exceeding expectations and unemployment rates near historic lows [6] - This economic resilience is fostering investor confidence in sustained earnings growth for the latter half of the year [6] SPY Fund Details - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust holds 503 stocks, with no single stock accounting for more than 7.6% of its assets, indicating a balanced portfolio [7] - The fund has an AUM of $649.8 billion, charges 9 bps in fees annually, and has an average daily trading volume of 71 million shares [8] Best-Performing Stocks - Palantir Technologies has surged over 97% this year, with an estimated earnings growth rate of 41.5% for 2025 [10] - NRG Energy has increased by approximately 70.6% this year, with a growth rate estimate of 17.6% [11] - Seagate Technology has risen about 70% this year, with a projected growth rate of 26.3% [12] - Howmet Aerospace has seen a 67.6% increase this year, with an expected earnings growth rate of 29% [13] - GE Vernova has climbed 66.9% this year, with an estimated growth rate of 32.3% [14]

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, as markets react negatively to its perceived lack thereof [1][2] - The current Fed Funds rate of 45% is considered too high, especially with inflation at 25% and GDP growth slowing [3][5] - Lowering rates prematurely could lead to inflation [1] Private Credit Market - Private credit markets are experiencing substantial growth, projected to reach $10 to $15 trillion in a decade, growing at 20% annually [10] - Asset-based lending (ABL) within private credit is still in its early stages but poised for significant expansion [9] - Private equity's growth will drive the expansion of direct lending [8] - Banks are increasingly participating in private credit, buying and selling private loans [11] Banks & Private Credit - Banks are expected to play a significant role in financing debt related to private credit deals [13] - Banks may develop secondary markets to provide liquidity for listed private debt products [15] Democratization of Private Credit - Concerns exist regarding the suitability of private credit investments for retail investors [16] - Private credit offers attractive risk-adjusted returns compared to public equity markets, with historical net returns of 11-12% and half the volatility of the equity market which generates a 7% historical return [17] - Wealth management divisions of major banks vet managers and provide recommendations for private credit investments [19] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not significantly impacted prices, with exporters and importers absorbing the costs [4]

Market Sentiment & Valuation - The market is assessing whether the recent pause is a temporary consolidation or a midsummer stall, similar to the previous year [1] - Some stocks have already priced in positive scenarios like tariff resolutions, interest rate cuts, and AI-driven economic growth, making them vulnerable during earnings season if results are not perfect [3] - Many relatively valued or inexpensive stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors, are pricing in a more bearish outlook and could potentially rally [4] - Overcrowding in momentum stocks requires continuous positive data to sustain their upward trajectory; otherwise, they are susceptible to a self-reinforcing downward cycle due to market leverage [10] - A shift from growth to value and from large-cap to small-cap stocks indicates the market is rebalancing to avoid excessive imbalances [8] Interest Rates & Economic Outlook - Speculation surrounds the Federal Reserve's actions and the necessity of rate cuts, influenced by global announcements such as Canada's interest rate adjustments [5] - Concerns exist that if interest rate relief does not materialize, a correction could occur across all cyclical stocks, regardless of their valuation [6] - The market anticipates Canada's interest rate to be 15%-25% higher [5][6] - The most probable cyclical outlook is one of steady performance, leading to a divergence in performance between expensive and reasonably priced cyclical stocks [7] Cyclical Stocks & Sector Performance - Certain industrial areas, especially within transports, exhibit trough multiples on earnings that have remained relatively stable, but are not at peak levels, anticipating a significant recovery [6] - A major cyclical rebound is unlikely due to the potential for the 10-year Treasury yield to rise, creating a counteracting force that prevents the cycle from becoming too strong [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

While mortgage rates hold steady for another week, affordability does rem remain a pain point in the housing market. Our next guest pointing to a mixed picture in leading indicators for demand. That's Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley, US housing strategist and co-head of securitized products research.Jim's here with me in the studio. Thanks for being here. Thank you for having me.So given that we have not seen that much movement on rates and notably not that much relief on rates, do we remain in this sort of stuck ...

V i e w p o i n t | 06 Jun 2025 16:17:32 ET │ 22 pages US Economics Weekly Fed on hold, but cuts still coming CITI'S TAKE An unchanged 4.2% unemployment rate and 139k new jobs is enough to keep the Fed on hold in June and July and we now expect policy rate cuts to resume in September. The unemployment rate would be closer to 4.6% if not for a drop in the participation rate and will likely rise in coming months. ISM services and manufacturing both came in below 50, suggesting a cooling economy. The Fed's Bei ...