Find out which banks are offering the best CD rates right now. If you’re looking for a secure place to store your savings, a certificate of deposit (CD) may be a great choice. These accounts often provide higher interest rates than traditional checking and savings accounts. However, CD rates can vary widely. Learn more about where CD rates stand today and how to find the best rates available. Banks with the best CD rates today CD rates are relatively high compared to historical averages. That said, CD r ...

Federal Reserve's minutes from its September 16th to 17th meeting. Mike, what are the key headlines that we'll talk about. Well, the minutes say that almost all of the participants, which is fed speak for all but one, supported a quarter point cut at their September meeting Stephen.Myron, of course, the new governor was the only one who wanted a half point cut. But the minutes do suggest there were some more hawkish views. A few participants stated there was merit in keeping the federal Fed funds rate uncha ...

The yield on the 10-year note ended October 3, 2025 at 4.13%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.58% and the 30-year note ended at 4.71%. If we consider the first negative spread date as the starting point, the average lead time to a recession is 48 weeks, or about eleven months. If we instead use the last positive spread date before a recession, the average lead time is 18.5 weeks, or about 4.25 months. For another perspective on the yield curve, the 10-3mo spread below uses an even shorter-term maturity ...

Mortgage Rates Overview - Current 30-year mortgage rate is 6.36%, down 11 basis points, while the 15-year fixed interest rate rose three basis points to 5.69% [1][14] - Refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the current 30-year refinance rate at 6.56% [2][14] Mortgage Rate Comparisons - 30-year fixed mortgage rates are currently at 6.36%, while 15-year fixed rates are at 5.69% [4] - For a $400,000 mortgage, the monthly payment for a 30-year term at 6.36% is approximately $1,993, resulting in $397,568 in interest over the term. In contrast, a 15-year mortgage at 5.69% has a monthly payment of about $3,309, with total interest of $195,585 [7] Adjustable vs. Fixed-Rate Mortgages - Fixed-rate mortgages lock in the interest rate from the start, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have a fixed rate for an initial period before adjusting based on market conditions [9][10] - ARMs may start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but they carry the risk of increasing rates after the initial period [11] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has made several rate cuts in 2024, with expectations of more cuts before the end of the year, which may influence mortgage rates [12][13] - Economists do not anticipate significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, despite potential rate cuts from the Fed [15]

The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted ...

The effective federal funds rate edged higher on Monday, a rare move that sparked selling in futures tied to the benchmark and may signal tighter financial conditions ahead https://t.co/abz33iy3tE ...

The effective federal funds rate — which has held near the bottom of the Fed’s target range for its benchmark over the past two years — could edge higher in a sign that excess bank reserves are dwindling faster than expected https://t.co/1XAaEFww4q ...

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter point, bringing it to a range of 4% to 4.25% [1] - The FOMC's dot-plot indicates expectations for future rate trends, with members anticipating two more cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, differing from market expectations [6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut" to hedge against potential economic slowdown [5][7] Economic Context - The Fed is facing challenges with its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment, as unemployment has increased and inflation is rising above the 2% target [4] - The impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation remains uncertain, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the stock market experienced volatility, with questions about whether the S&P 500 index will reach 7,000 or if it is a "sell-the-news" event [2] - The stock market has been anticipating interest rate cuts, which have contributed to the rise in the S&P 500 index [7]

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.14% on September 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.57% and the 30-year note at 4.75% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite steady FFR [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Monetary Policy - The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4% to 4.25% [1] - This marks the first rate cut in 2025 after a pause since December 2024 [1] - The updated dot plot projections signal a more dovish outlook, with a median forecast of two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [1] - There is divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts; nine expect two more cuts, six anticipate no further action, and one projects up to six cuts [1] Market Reaction & Fed's Stance - The market reaction underscores relief at the expected rate cut, but weariness over the Fed's balancing act between jobs and inflation [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Pal characterized the 25 basis point rate reduction as a measured risk-management action [2] - The rate cut is intended to bolster a moderating labor market while avoiding excessive stimulation of inflation [2] - The Fed's tone started somewhat reassuring on jobs, but shifted hawkish, stressing careful navigation amid uncertainties [2]