Colombia’s government has signed an economic emergency decree to raise funds to address a widening fiscal deficit, local media reported on Friday https://t.co/aB68MeTvPd ...

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said he expects the country’s debt pressures to ease beginning end-2028, driven by the government’s efforts to reduce its fiscal deficit. https://t.co/zVCcR1UaER ...

Core Insights - The interest-rate markets are experiencing increased trading activities, with expectations for continued opportunities into 2026 due to macroeconomic factors [1] - Major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are projected to see rising fixed-income trading revenues in the upcoming quarters [2] - Divergent interest rate policies among global central banks are prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios, leading to heightened trading activity [4][5] Company Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, JPMorgan's fixed-income market revenues rose 14% year-over-year to $17.2 billion [3] - Bank of America reported a 9.6% year-over-year increase in its fixed-income, currencies, and commodities trading revenues [3] - Goldman Sachs experienced an 8% year-over-year increase in its fixed-income trading revenues [3] Market Dynamics - Rising fiscal deficits are leading governments to issue more bonds, increasing trading volumes in the bond market [7] - A steepening yield curve, where long-term interest rates rise faster than short-term rates, is driving various trading behaviors such as hedging and speculation [8] - The increase in fixed-income trading activities is expected to benefit major dealers like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America [6]

Hello everyone. I've got a very special treat for you today. We've got a conversation with Joseph Wei.Joseph is the principal at fedguy. com and he's also the author of the bestselling book central banking 101. This guy understands the Federal Reserve better than almost anyone I've ever talked to.He understands how they make decisions, what data they use, and how their decision-making impacts financial markets. And Joseph's going to explain all of that to us today, including what's he excited about in the f ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered by some to be above the original dual mandate, with a zero percent target preferred for pure price stability [2] - The Fed aims for stable inflation, but its track record in achieving this is questionable [3] - A little bit of deflation is considered a natural part of economic development due to technological and productivity improvements [6] - Current inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indicator, may not accurately reflect the price inflation experienced by average American families [8] - The Fed's deliberate debasement of purchasing power necessitates inflation adjustments, creating confusion [9] Interest Rates & Economic Impact - The Fed's method of curbing inflation by restricting growth is questioned, particularly its reliance on Keynesian models that ignore the impact of lower taxes and less regulation on increasing supply [12][13] - High interest rates restrict access to capital, hindering real prosperity gained through the production of goods and services [15][21] - The Fed's actions empower the government at the expense of the private sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses [14] - Lowering rates is suggested to stimulate small business hiring by improving access to capital [21] Fiscal Policy & Government - Perpetual deficit spending is viewed as immoral and corrupt, creating purchasing power based on future, unproduced goods and services [16] - A balanced budget is crucial, and the inability to manage government finances is demoralizing [22][23] Alternative Monetary Solutions - A proposal suggests Treasury should issue a gold-backed long-term bond to compensate for losses in purchasing power, potentially competing with assets like Bitcoin [17] - Relinking the dollar to gold could be a cost-effective way for the government to borrow and signal a move towards sound finances [19][20]

Government Fiscal Policy - Mexico's ruling party senators approved the revenue portion of next year's budget [1] - The budget includes tax hikes designed to boost government income [1] - The government aims to narrow its 2026 fiscal deficit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

Chile’s government whacked up its estimate for this year’s fiscal deficit earlier this month. Economists are warning it’s still not enough to be totally realistic. https://t.co/jVoM7VuE3p ...

Colombia’s central bank defied pressure to cut interest rates after a surprise jump in inflation and a warning from the IMF about the gaping fiscal deficit. https://t.co/nPWWZjDDgp ...