Market Trends & Drivers - Precious metals have surged this year, with gold rising about 55% and silver surging about 75% [1] - The rally in precious metals is driven by concerns about the future of the dollar, geopolitical instability, stretched stock market valuations, and expectations for rate cuts by the Fed [2][3] - Silver reached a new all-time high last week and surpassed a decades-old record last month [4] - Silver was trading at a premium in London over New York prices due to an unprecedented drop in inventories [4] - India and China are the largest consumers of silver for industrial use and jewelry [7] Silver's Industrial Applications - Silver has significant industrial uses in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [5] - Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity and is used in circuit boards, switches, electric vehicles, and batteries [5] - Rising demand and stagnant supply have amplified silver's price rise [6] ETF Performance & Characteristics - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the largest silver ETF with 25 billion in assets under management and a 50 basis points expense ratio [8] - abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) is a cheaper physically backed silver ETF with 37 billion in assets and a 30 basis points expense ratio [9] - Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) tracks companies involved in silver mining with 37 billion in assets and a 65 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) holds companies involved in silver exploration or metals mining with 585 million in assets and a 39 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) is up about 140% year to date, while Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is up about 115% [12]

Core Insights - The Muhlenkamp Fund, once a top performer in the 1990s, faced significant challenges during the tech boom and financial crisis, leading to a drastic decline in assets and performance [1][3] - Under the management of Jeffrey Muhlenkamp, the fund has recently outperformed the S&P 500, achieving an average annual return of 17.56% over the past five years [5] - The fund has shifted its investment strategy to include a significant allocation in gold stocks, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability [7][8] Historical Performance - The Muhlenkamp Fund's assets grew from approximately $200 million in the late 1990s to over $3 billion before the financial crisis, but fell to $1 billion by the end of 2009 [2][3] - An investment in the fund yielded less than 9% annually over 15 years, compared to a 12% return from the S&P 500 [3] Management Transition - Jeffrey Muhlenkamp took over the fund in 2020 after a military career, aiming to revitalize the investment strategy while maintaining core principles established by his father [4] Investment Strategy - The fund currently allocates 19% of its $400 million in assets to gold stocks, which have seen significant price increases, with gold prices more than doubling in the last five years [7][8] - The investment philosophy emphasizes companies with high return on equity and a focus on inflation trends, adapting to current market conditions [9] Key Holdings - Major holdings include Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, and Apple, with a focus on companies that provide steady cash flow rather than just growth potential [10] - The fund's longest-held investment, Rush Enterprises, has yielded significant returns, highlighting a successful consolidation strategy in the truck dealership sector [10] Market Outlook - The fund is cautious about AI investments, drawing parallels to past market bubbles and emphasizing the potential for a downturn in capital spending [11] - The portfolio has shifted towards manufacturing and healthcare sectors, which are currently out of favor, indicating a contrarian investment approach [10]

Core Insights - Concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical instability are prompting central banks to shift their focus back to gold, traditionally viewed as a safe asset [1][9] - Gold has recently surpassed the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar, marking a significant shift as it now represents a larger share of central banks' reserves than Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [2][9] - The last time gold held a greater share of global reserves than Treasuries was in 1996, a period characterized by aggressive gold sales by many European countries ahead of the euro's launch [3][6] Market Context - Gold prices experienced a significant decline to around $250 an ounce in August 1999, down 40% from early 1996, which led to the adoption of the "Washington Agreement" to cap central bank sales [6] - The late 1990s environment was not favorable for gold, marked by solid economic growth, low inflation, and a rare U.S. budget surplus [6] - The current global macro environment is markedly different, presenting conditions that are more conducive to gold investment, while Treasuries are facing relative struggles [7]

Core Insights - Disruptions in logistics services lead to annual losses of approximately $16 billion for the global technology sector, representing 8% of the technology logistics market [1] Group 1: Impact of Logistics Disruptions - The technology sector is facing increased demands for faster delivery and greater reliability due to the rise of AI, cloud infrastructure, and data centers [2] - Geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty are identified as major influences on supply chain strategy by 91% of surveyed technology leaders [3] - Disruptions have resulted in more customer complaints for 87% of companies, with 66% reporting lost contracts due to supply chain issues [5] Group 2: Factors Affecting Supply Chain - Recent changes in US tariff policies impacted 70% of surveyed companies, while 68% were affected by the semiconductor shortage [3] - Companies investing in warehousing, international shipping, and sustainability experience lower disruption-related costs [4] - Focused investment in risk management and resilience planning can reduce disruption costs by up to 35% [4] Group 3: Importance of Resilience Planning - Strengthening supply chain resilience allows technology firms to restore operations quickly and maintain customer relationships during disruptions [4] - Many technology companies have inadequate resilience plans, with half of those surveyed losing over a month of productive time due to disruptions [6] - Reliable delivery is crucial for customer experience, as 59% of companies reported negative effects on brand reputation due to disruptions [5]

There has been a lot of hype around the company, a deep focus on what it is doing, how it is growing, and so it is a place to start. Would you just bring us up to speed on where Andrew is today operationally, revenue at the business it is doing with the US government and Western allies. Absolutely.Well, thank you for having me on. Really excited to have you here. The annual is been around about eight years, but we've grown incredibly in that time.I think this year we're going to be over 6500 employees. We'v ...

WITH WAR FIGHTERS THIS. YEAR WE'RE REALLY MOVING INTO THIS MODE OF REALLY PRODUCING. ED: FOR GIVE ME.WE HAVE BREAKING NEWS. PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SAYING HE WAS DUE TO MEET CHINA'S PRESIDENT XI IN TWO WEEKS' TIME. HE NOW SAYS HE SEES NO REASON TO DO SO.THE TEAM IS GOING TO PUT HEADLINES UP ON THE SCREEN. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF NEWS BECAUSE PART OF WHAT WE WANTED TO DISCUSS TODAY WAS CHINA. THE PRESIDENT SAYING THAT HE'S CALCULATING INCREASED TARIFFS ON CHINESE PRODUCTS.AND BEAR WITH US. WE ARE SEEING THIS QUITE ...

Core Insights - Corporate clients, primarily small and medium enterprises, represent 10% to 15% of assets under custody on Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest crypto exchange, focusing on holding rather than trading their bitcoin holdings [1] - The trend of adopting bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset has been influenced by companies like Strategy (MSTR), which holds 639,835 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder globally [2] - Brazilian companies are using bitcoin and stablecoins for conservative cash management, rather than for speculative purposes [4] Industry Trends - Brazil ranks fifth in the Global Crypto Adoption Index, yet only one publicly-traded company, Méliuz, currently holds BTC, with OranjeBTC set to become the largest publicly traded corporate holder with $400 million in its treasury [3] - The increase in institutional activity is contributing to reduced overall volatility in crypto markets, making bitcoin more attractive for corporate treasurers [5] - The enterprise segment in Brazil is still in the early stages of crypto adoption, with larger financial players yet to engage significantly [5]

Core Insights - Geopolitical instability is driving growth for defense companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, leading to increased U.S. and allied defense budgets for military modernization and procurement [1][10] - Demand for military programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and missile systems is providing stable revenue for Lockheed, while Boeing benefits from its defense programs and commercial aerospace market exposure [2][3] Financial Strength and Growth Catalysts - Boeing has shown recovery with cash and cash equivalents of $22.97 billion, exceeding its current debt of $8.72 billion, and a current ratio of 1.23, indicating sufficient capital for short-term obligations [4] - Lockheed's cash and cash equivalents were $1.29 billion, significantly lower than its debt, with cash flow from operations declining to $1.61 billion, raising liquidity concerns [5] - The proposed $1.01 trillion U.S. defense budget for fiscal 2026 is expected to benefit both companies, with Boeing receiving $3.1 billion for the F-15EX and $3.5 billion for the F-47 platform [6] - Lockheed is set to gain from a 30% increase in Space Force funding to $40 billion and $25 billion for the 'Golden Dome' missile defense shield [7] - Boeing forecasts a demand for 43,600 new commercial planes by 2044, driven by a 4.2% annual passenger traffic growth rate, benefiting its commercial and services units [8] - Lockheed is strengthening its position as a defense contractor with programs like the F-35 and Trident II D5 missile modernization, alongside increased production rates for various missile systems [9] Market Performance and Valuation - Boeing shares surged 39.3% in the past year, while Lockheed shares declined by 15.8%, despite Lockheed's steadier profile [10] - Lockheed's forward sales multiple is 1.48, which is more attractive compared to Boeing's 1.73 [19] Conclusion - Boeing shows signs of financial recovery and long-term growth potential but remains a high-risk investment due to operational challenges [24] - Lockheed is viewed as a more stable investment choice with a resilient defense portfolio, providing reliable cash flow and shareholder returns [25]

Group 1 - The Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) has reached a 52-week high and is up 22.26% from its 52-week low price of $80.40 per share [1] - The underlying index, S&P 500 Pure Value Index, focuses on securities with strong value characteristics within the S&P 500 [1] - The fund charges an annual fee of 35 basis points [1] Group 2 - The value sector is gaining attention due to rising inflation concerns, geopolitical instability, and vulnerabilities in the AI-driven market rally, making value funds more attractive [2] - Value stocks are known for long-term outperformance and lower volatility compared to growth and blend stocks [2] Group 3 - RPV currently holds a Zacks ETF Rank 3 (Hold) with a medium risk outlook, indicating potential for continued strong performance [3] - The fund has a positive weighted alpha of 11.85, suggesting further rally potential [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue increased by 12% to $7 billion, with underlying revenue growth of 4% [16][20] - Adjusted operating income rose by 14% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS growing by 11% to $2.72 [7][21] - Adjusted operating margin improved by 50 basis points to 29.5% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Risk and Insurance Services (RIS) revenue was $4.6 billion, up 15% year-over-year, with 4% underlying growth [21][16] - Marsh's revenue increased by 18% to $3.8 billion, with 5% underlying growth [22][16] - Guy Carpenter's revenue grew by 7% to $677 million, maintaining 5% underlying growth [23][16] - Consulting segment revenue was $2.4 billion, up 7% or 3% on an underlying basis [24][16] - Mercer's revenue was $1.5 billion, up 9% or 3% on an underlying basis [25][16] - Oliver Wyman's revenue increased by 5% to $873 million, with 3% underlying growth [27][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial insurance rates decreased by 4% in Q2, following a 3% decline in Q1 [12][16] - Global casualty rates increased by 4%, with US excess casualty up 18% [13][16] - Workers' compensation rates decreased by 4%, while global property rates decreased by 7% year-over-year [14][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth and continued margin expansion [17][32] - Focus on advising clients on strategies to navigate geopolitical instability and supply chain risks [8][18] - Commitment to addressing the challenges posed by the US litigation environment and rising liability insurance costs [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with various geopolitical and economic challenges impacting clients [7][8] - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience and ability to deliver value despite economic uncertainties [18][32] - The company anticipates continued growth in adjusted EPS and margin expansion for the remainder of 2025 [17][32] Other Important Information - The company announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.90 and completed $300 million in share repurchases [16][32] - Total debt at the end of the quarter was $19.7 billion, with a cash position of $1.7 billion [31][32] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Are you seeing upward pressure on pricing in the insurance market? - Management noted that insurance and reinsurance markets continue to soften, particularly in property, but excess casualty rates are under pressure due to the US litigation environment [38][39] Question: Can you provide more detail on the wealth and career components of organic growth? - Management explained that the wealth business is driven by AUM, but the defined benefits pension consulting work is in structural decline, impacting organic revenue growth [43][48] Question: How does the macroeconomic environment affect the RIS segment? - Management agreed that nominal GDP is a significant factor, and noted that project work is being deferred in the US due to economic uncertainty [57][58] Question: What is the outlook for Marsh International growth? - Management expressed confidence in the strong growth in international markets, despite pricing headwinds, and highlighted the company's capabilities in various regions [76][78] Question: How are rising medical costs impacting your business? - Management indicated that rising healthcare costs are a stress point for clients, but the majority of their business operates on a fixed fee basis, limiting direct impacts from medical inflation [96][99] Question: What are the implications of AI technology on your business? - Management is optimistic about the potential of AI to create efficiencies and improve insights, and is actively investing in technology to support these initiatives [100][102]