2025年底那份百城库存报告出来后，不少人心里直打鼓。全国新建商品住宅去化周期拉到27.4个月，比 合理区间多出一倍。三四线城市尤其明显，挂在那里40多个月都动不了。过去那种半年清盘的日子没 了，现在供应明显过剩，市场开始把多余的房子往外挤。 限价那几年赶工期的房子，2025年底集中交付。墙体不平，排水不畅，车位不够，这些毛病一暴露，二 手市场挂牌量就爆了。政策现在推"好房子"标准，这些粗糙的直接被比下去，挂着价却没人动。 买房的人现在眼睛亮了。以前闭眼买，现在先看城市人口流向，再看小区物业和户型。位置偏、品质一 般的房子，挂牌价往下调也难成交。资金卡在那里，变现能力一天比一天弱。 地方开始行动，把部分库存房收储做保障房。有的转公租，有的搞人才公寓。这样既消化了存量，又给 新市民提供了住处。避免房子空着烂掉，也让市场喘口气。 核心城市核心地段的房子，日子好过些。配套齐全，人口还在进，改善需求撑着去化。上海深圳一些优 质项目，价格小幅稳住，甚至有点回暖迹象。分化已经摆在眼前。 房地产从过去那种全民炒的金融游戏，慢慢回到住的本质。国家通过这些政策，把泡沫挤得差不多，留 下真正匹配需求的。普通家庭选房时，得算清楚接 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market is categorizing properties into two types: "livable" and "appreciable," with the former struggling to sell while the latter remains in demand despite higher prices [1] - Older properties built before 2000, lacking school district access and proximity to public transport, are facing low demand, while newer properties within key urban areas are still attracting buyers [1] - The increase in second-hand housing listings by 37% last year contrasted with a mere 15% transaction rate, indicating a significant gap between sellers and actual buyers [3] Group 2 - Government initiatives such as prioritizing rental housing for families and subsidizing public housing are aimed at assisting genuine housing needs, while investors should be cautious about speculative buying [3] - Non-voluntary sellers, such as those undergoing divorce or inheritance, are becoming the primary sellers in the second-hand market, leading to price reductions and decreased liquidity for ordinary homes [3] - The rental market is improving with the expansion of long-term rental REITs and a significant increase in affordable housing supply, indicating a shift in demand towards better living conditions and community services [4]

Group 1 - The housing industry's stocks experienced an upward trend following President Donald Trump's speech at Davos, which contained few surprises regarding housing policy [2] - The lack of significant housing policy announcements in the speech is perceived as positive news for builders, indicating stability in the sector [2] - Companies such as D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), and PulteGroup (PHM) are likely to benefit from the current market sentiment following the speech [2]

Core Argument - The article argues that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be terminated rather than expanded, suggesting that their existence distorts housing policy and monetary policy [1] Group 1: Housing Policy Implications - The expansion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is viewed as a potential risk to the housing market, as it may lead to increased government involvement in housing finance [1] - The article emphasizes that the current housing policy is overly reliant on these government-sponsored enterprises, which could lead to inefficiencies and market distortions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The involvement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the housing market complicates monetary policy, as their actions can influence interest rates and credit availability [1] - The article suggests that a clear separation between housing policy and monetary policy is necessary to ensure effective economic management [1]

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends in home prices and sales dynamics in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Price Decline**: - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by **1.7% month-on-month (m-m)** in November, marking a **13.3% year-on-year (y-y)** decline. This is a faster decline compared to **-1.2% in October** and **-1.3% in September** [2][8]. - Over **90% of the tracked cities** experienced faster price declines, with tier 1 cities seeing a drop of **-1.8% m-m** [2][8]. 2. **Sales and Listings**: - Total listings remained stable, with a slight decrease of **0.2% m-m** in approximately **50 sample cities**. New secondary listings softened by **-3% m-m** and **-9% y-y**, with over **65% of cities** recording m-m decreases [3][8]. - Visitation to agent shops increased by **1% m-m** and **8% y-y**, indicating potential market share gains for secondary home sales due to competitive pricing [4][8]. 3. **Future Expectations**: - The expectation is for further home price declines, with housing policy remaining muted in the coming months. A potential subsidy on mortgage interest may be introduced in late **Q2/Q3 2026** if the price decline spreads to tier 2 cities [5][8]. - Sluggish home sales are anticipated to persist into **Q1 2026**, driven by high inventory levels affecting buyer sentiment [5][8]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - A defensive and selective approach is advised for **Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs)** due to weak sales impacting earnings and liquidity. Conversely, quality **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** are recommended for accumulation, particularly **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **C&D (1908.HK)**, which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields [6][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that **100% of sample cities** recorded m-m decreases in home prices, highlighting a pervasive downturn in the market [15][8]. - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a prolonged period of cautious sentiment among home buyers, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the property sector [5][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and potential investment strategies.

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a paradox where new residential buildings are being constructed while many remain vacant, leading to a disconnect between supply and demand [1][3] - Traditional economic principles suggest that excess supply should lead to price reductions, but this logic appears ineffective in the real estate sector [3] - The consumer psychology of "buying high, not low" influences market behavior, with many buyers viewing properties as investment tools rather than for actual living purposes [5][7] Market Dynamics - Continuous buyer interest allows developers to keep launching new projects, which in turn drives up prices despite high vacancy rates [7] - The transformation of residential properties into investment vehicles exacerbates social inequalities, making it difficult for genuine homebuyers to enter the market [7] Policy Response - The government has recognized these issues and implemented the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy, which has effectively curbed the upward trend in housing prices [9] - Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, this policy has led to a slowdown in land acquisition and construction by developers, as well as a decrease in speculative buying [9] - As speculative buyers withdraw from the market and developers reduce construction, the issue of vacant properties is expected to gradually improve [9]

A new California law making it easier for developers to build multistory apartment buildings near major commuter stops has triggered fierce opposition from Los Angeles and other coastal cities https://t.co/iI573NsbxS ...

Hong Kong’s lawmakers have passed a bill to phase out substandard tiny residential units, as the government moves to address Beijing’s call to improve the city’s living conditions https://t.co/HmwifvkiSU ...

Policy Adjustment - Hainan Province is optimizing control policies, including acquiring existing commercial housing for affordable housing and resettlement [1] - Acquisition area standards for affordable rental housing may be appropriately relaxed [1] - Counties with high destocking periods are encouraged to prioritize "purchase instead of construction" for resettlement [1]

Housing Policy - Beijing residents and non-Beijing residents with 2+ years of continuous social insurance or individual income tax payment in Beijing can purchase unlimited units of commercial housing outside the 5th Ring Road [1]