US stocks tilted mostly higher on Friday as investors assessed the December jobs report and braced for a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) nudged up nearly 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was roughly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.3% after a mixed session on Thursday as appetite for technology stocks ebbed. All three major indexes remain on pace to close the first full week of 2026 higher. Markets on Friday are ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.17% and posted a 4-week high. The dollar is moving higher today on some better-than-expected US economic news.  US job cuts last month fell to a 17-month low, and weekly jobless claims rose less than expected, positive factors for the labor market that are hawkish for Fed policy.  Also, Q3 non-farm productivity rose, and the trade deficit shrank to a 16-year low, dollar supportive factors. US Dec Challenger job cuts fell -8.3% y/y to 35,553, a 17-month low and a ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is entering 2026 facing significant political and policy challenges, including a new chair and a mixed economic environment that will complicate decision-making for policymakers [1][2] Economic Outlook - Following three consecutive interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious approach in 2026, with additional cuts likely being limited due to expectations of solid economic growth and persistent inflation pressures [2] - The year 2026 is anticipated to continue the extraordinary upheaval experienced in the previous year regarding the Federal Reserve [2] Political Context - President Donald Trump has previously threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not implementing interest rate cuts quickly enough, and there have been controversies surrounding the Fed, including cost overruns on a renovation project [4][5] - The potential removal of Governor Lisa Cook has also been a point of contention, with unproven allegations of mortgage fraud complicating the political landscape [5] Upcoming Events - A Supreme Court hearing is scheduled for January 21, 2026, to determine Trump's authority to remove Cook, followed by an interest rate vote by the Federal Open Market Committee [6] - Trump is expected to announce his choice for Fed chair in January, while Powell must decide whether to continue serving on the Board of Governors until January 2028 [6] Internal Dynamics - Recent rate votes have seen multiple dissents, and new regional presidents joining the Federal Open Market Committee are expected to have a hawkish stance, likely resisting further rate cuts [7]

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 1-week high today and is up by +0.25%.  The dollar is moving higher today as T-note yields climb after weekly US unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 1-month low, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Also, the weakness in stocks today has boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. Questions about the Fed's independence are limiting gains in the dollar after President Trump said Monday evening that he "still might" fire Fed Chair Powell.  Also, strength in the Ch ...

Stocks fell slightly on Wall Street Tuesday as trading for 2025 nudges closer to the finish line.With just one trading day left before the year ends, most big investors have closed out their positions and volume has been thin. Every major index is headed for a double-digit gain for the year.The S&P 500 fell 9.50 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 6,894.24. Even with three straight days of small losses, the S&P 500 is on track for an annual gain of more than 17 per cent.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.87 p ...

You know, there there's a lot of there's a lot of drama with the Fed and usually it's just, you know, will they raise interest rates. Will they cut interest rates. Will they hold interest rates.But now it's like we don't even know what the makeup of the committee or who the chair is going to be. What What do you think is the biggest wild card at this point into 2026 on the Fed. >> I think there are two or three wild cards.One is just the state of the economy. The data coming in has been uh mixed, shall we s ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell to a new 2.75-month low but then recovered and ended the day little changed.  The dollar continues to trade on a weak note despite Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% and the reduced odds for Fed easing.  The markets have reduced the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to the current level of 16% from 20% before the GDP report. In a report released Wednesday, US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -10,000 to 214,000 in ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today posted a new 2.75-month low but then recovered and is little changed.  The dollar continues to trade on a weak note despite Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% and the reduced odds for Fed easing.  The markets on Tuesday reduced the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 13% from 20%. In a report released today, US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -10,000 to 214,000 in the week ended Dec 20, showing a stronger labor market than ...

美国总统特朗普今年"钦点"的美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）警告，除非美联储明年继续降息，否则 美国经济将面临衰退的风险。这一表态与多位美联储官员近期的谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，凸显联储内部 在利率政策路径上的深度分化。 美东时间22日周一，米兰在接受采访时表示："如果我们不调整政策，我们将面临日益严重的经济衰退 风险。" 他强调，失业率已经上升到超出预期的水平，这些数据应该会促使美联储决策者向鸽派方向转 变。 米兰同时表示，他尚未决定在明年1月的下次美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议上支持降息25个基点还 是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息。他还说，"我认为短期内不会出现经济衰退"，不过上升的失 业率应促使美联储官员继续降息。 米兰的表态与近期其他的美联储官员截然不同。他讲话一天前，上周日公布的访谈显示，明年拥有 FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）表示，暂停降息是她目前的基本预 期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、波士顿联储主席柯林斯和理事沃勒上周也都表达了更为谨慎的立场。 米兰主张继续降息以防经济恶化 米兰本周一在接受彭博电视采访时详细阐述了他对货币政策的看法。他指出： ...

It's no secret that Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has staked out a spot as perhaps the most hawkish member of the U.S. Federal Reserve since her appointment in 2024 after a career at Goldman Sachs. Next year, however, she will be in a more prominent position to advance those views. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets interest rate policy. Among its twelve voting members are four of the Fed's eleven district presidents who serve rotating one-year terms. In 2026, the head of the Clev ...