First Watch Restaurant Group (NasdaqGS:FWRG) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 24, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndy Barish - Managing Director, Equity ResearchBrian Vaccaro - Managing DirectorChris Tomasso - CEO and PresidentMatt Eisenacher - Chief Brand OfficerMel Hope - CFOSteven Marotta - Vice President of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Charles - Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystBrian Mullan - Director and Senior Research AnalystGregory Francfort - Senior AnalystJe ...

Group 1: Innovation and Product Offerings - McDonald's has introduced several new offerings and brought back popular items, demonstrating its commitment to innovation in the fast food sector [1] - The company plans to introduce new menu items in 2026 across beverages, chicken, and beef categories in the U.S. and select international markets [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The quick-service restaurant industry is evolving, with brands finding success by specializing in core offerings rather than diversifying without clear differentiation [2] - Competitors like Chick-fil-A, Dutch Bros, and In-N-Out Burger have successfully focused on specific product categories, leading to accelerated growth and improved operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Beverage Segment - Beverages are McDonald's fastest-growing category, with a global opportunity estimated at over $100 billion [5][7] - The company has piloted new beverage offerings, including energy drinks and crafted sodas, which exceeded expectations and drove higher average checks [6][5] Group 4: Chicken Segment - McDonald's has expanded its chicken offerings, which are now approximately twice the size of its beef lineup, with plans to grow chicken-based items by at least 1% by the end of 2026 compared to 2023 levels [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, McDonald's achieved system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion, reflecting a 5.5% increase in constant currency for the full year [4] - Global comparable sales rose by 5.7% in Q4, with U.S. comp sales increasing by 6.8%, driven by positive check and guest count growth [12][16] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 was $3.12, including a $0.10 benefit from foreign currency translation, with a 7% increase in adjusted earnings per share on a constant currency basis compared to the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. saw strong performance from the relaunch of Extra Value Meals (EVM), which improved units sold and value perception [15][16] - International operated markets reported a 5.2% increase in comp sales, with notable growth in the U.K., Germany, and Australia [16][17] - The international developmental licensed markets experienced a 4.5% increase in comp sales, led by Japan [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.K. market showed a turnaround with market share gains for the first time in over a year, driven by successful promotions [16] - Germany's performance was bolstered by the return of the Big Rösti burger and a Friends-themed marketing campaign [17] - Australia capitalized on breakfast innovations and the Grinch promotion, contributing to strong market performance [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - McDonald's plans to accelerate new restaurant openings, targeting approximately 2,600 gross openings in 2026, aiming for 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 [5][32] - The company emphasizes a trifecta strategy focusing on value, marketing, and menu innovation to drive growth [6][10] - Investments in technology and digital initiatives are prioritized to enhance operational efficiency and support long-term growth [29][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in McDonald's ability to outperform competitors in challenging environments by focusing on controllable factors [28] - The company anticipates continued momentum in 2026, supported by strong marketing initiatives and value offerings [12][28] - Management acknowledged the importance of customer loyalty and engagement through the loyalty app, which has seen significant growth [35] Other Important Information - McDonald's capital expenditure for 2025 was $3.4 billion, slightly above expectations, with plans to increase to between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026 [20][32] - The company aims for a net income to free cash flow conversion rate in the low- to mid-80% range for 2026, consistent with 2025 [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: U.S. sales trajectory in 2026 - Management highlighted the importance of the McValue program and EVM in driving sales growth, emphasizing the need for execution across value, marketing, and innovation [42][44] Question: Value strategy and franchisee sentiment - Management noted positive franchisee sentiment due to improved cash flows and business momentum, while emphasizing that pricing strategies are ultimately determined by franchisees [75][77] Question: Capital budget increase - The increase in capital budget is attributed to accelerated restaurant openings and adjustments for future growth, with a focus on securing new sites [56][58] Question: Customer frequency and loyalty program impact - Management acknowledged the loyalty program's role in increasing customer frequency and engagement, which is expected to drive sales [79]

Core Insights - TGI Fridays is focusing on a growth strategy that includes expanding into non-traditional spaces such as hotels and airports, aiming for 1,000 units and $2 billion in revenue by 2030 [5][7] - The company has seen significant opportunities in Asia and the Middle East, particularly with its hotel partnerships [1][4] Hotel Strategy - Adding full-service branded restaurants like Fridays to limited-service hotels can triple or quadruple food and beverage revenue, allowing hotels to charge higher nightly rates [2] - The hotel strategy was inspired by Fridays' success in airports, where the chain operates high-volume restaurants [3] - TGI Fridays has opened locations in hotels such as Hilton Garden Inn and Courtyard Marriott, with 10 to 15 hotel locations globally [4] Franchise Development - TGI Fridays has signed 150 restaurant and development agreements globally in the past six months, with plans to double that amount this year [5] - The company is focused on boosting franchise profitability, conducting quarterly business reviews and biannual franchisee reviews to help operators improve their financial health [11][12] - Franchised restaurants in the U.S. declined from 152 at the start of 2022 to 81 by the end of 2024, indicating challenges in the franchise model [9] Menu Innovation - TGI Fridays is leveraging its global reach to innovate its menu, appealing to younger consumers with diverse flavor profiles [18] - The company has engaged its team members in a global innovation contest to generate new menu ideas, enhancing creativity and team morale [19][20] Employee Experience - Recent ratings on platforms like Google and Yelp indicate improved customer experiences, attributed to better service from staff [21] - The company emphasizes hiring for personality and enhancing employee training, with a high percentage of managers promoted from within [23] - TGI Fridays is committed to setting higher standards of excellence, which is believed to boost employee retention and create a culture of recognition [24]

Core Insights - Yum China reported strong fiscal 2025 results, driven by store expansion, transaction growth, and improved profitability, while also increasing shareholder returns and outlining a 2026 growth plan focused on franchising and new store formats [5][8]. Store Expansion and Performance - KFC opened 1,349 net new stores in 2025, ending the year with nearly 13,000 locations, while Yum China overall opened more than 1,700 net new stores, bringing the total to over 18,000 across more than 2,500 cities [1][4]. - Pizza Hut added 444 net new stores, increasing its total to 4,168, with a focus on menu innovations to attract younger customers [7][9]. Financial Performance - Yum China's operating profit margin reached 10.9% for the full year, with operating profit up 11% to $1.3 billion, and fourth-quarter operating profit increased by 23% [3][8]. - The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing approximately 8%–9% of its current market capitalization [2][8]. Sales Growth and Margins - KFC system sales rose 5% for the full year, with fourth-quarter system sales growing 8% and same-store sales increasing 3% [1][4]. - Pizza Hut's restaurant margin improved by 80 basis points to 12.8%, with fourth-quarter system sales growing 6% and same-store sales rising 1% [9]. Future Outlook - For 2026, Yum China expects to exceed 20,000 stores with over 1,900 net openings, and plans for 40%–50% of new units to be franchised, alongside a CapEx of $600 million–$700 million [6][18]. - The company anticipates mid- to high-single-digit system sales growth and double-digit EPS growth, while acknowledging near-term headwinds from a rising delivery mix and higher rider costs [6][19]. Innovation and Customer Engagement - Yum China launches about 600 new or upgraded items annually, with a focus on "hero products" that accounted for about one-third of KFC's sales in 2025 [11]. - The company is expanding its KCOFFEE cafés and light meal concepts, which have shown positive sales uplifts for parent KFC stores [12]. Delivery and Pricing Strategy - The delivery mix is expected to rise further in 2026, with management emphasizing a balance across delivery, takeaway, and dine-in channels [22]. - KFC made mild adjustments to delivery menu pricing to help absorb higher rider costs, while maintaining stable pricing for dine-in and takeaway [20][21].

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

Core Insights - Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) shares have increased by 14.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry's growth of 7.6% [1] Performance and Growth Factors - The company is enhancing its market position through strong sales performance across its portfolio, driven by robust guest demand, effective pricing strategies, and resilient traffic, particularly at its major brands [2] - Darden's disciplined expansion strategy, partnership with Uber Direct, and ongoing menu innovation are contributing to strong results, highlighting the company's operational resilience and long-term relevance in the competitive restaurant sector [2] - In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Olive Garden sales rose by 5.4% year over year to $1.36 billion, while LongHorn Steakhouse saw a 9.3% increase in sales to $775.9 million, supported by same-restaurant sales growth and new restaurant openings [4] - The Fine Dining segment experienced a 3.3% year-over-year sales increase to $316.4 million, and the Other Business segment grew by 11.3% to $647.3 million, reflecting positive same-restaurant sales growth [5] - Darden plans to open 65-70 new restaurants in FY26, having opened 17 new locations in Q2 of fiscal 2026, indicating confidence in site availability and capital allocation [8] Menu Innovation - Darden prioritizes menu innovation as a growth driver, with successful product launches and limited-time offerings enhancing guest interest and supporting traffic growth [9] - Olive Garden's $13.99 Never Ending Pasta Bowl and the return of popular dishes have driven momentum, while LongHorn Steakhouse has reintroduced favorites that received positive guest feedback [9] Challenges - Darden faces near-term challenges from elevated beef and commodity costs, which have pressured margins despite solid sales performance [3][10] - The company has revised its 2026 EPS estimate downward to $10.58 from $10.61, reflecting these pressures and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer demand [3]

Core Insights - Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is enhancing its market position through innovative menu offerings, operational efficiency, and strategic restaurant remodels, demonstrating resilience in the competitive quick-service restaurant industry [1] - The company's stock has increased by 15.5% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry's growth of 6.8% [2] - QSR's 2026 EPS estimate has been revised upward to $3.99 from $3.97, indicating positive growth despite inflation pressures [4] Factors Driving Growth - Core brands such as Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes are pivotal for sustained growth, with Tim Hortons contributing approximately 44% of operating profit and achieving 4.2% comparable sales growth in Q3 2025 [6][7] - Burger King U.S. is experiencing growth under the Reclaim the Flame strategy, with a 3.2% increase in comparable sales, supported by menu innovation and restaurant remodels [6][9] - Popeyes is expanding internationally, particularly in EMEA and China, leading to significant system-wide sales growth [8] Remodeling and Refranchising Initiatives - QSR is modernizing its restaurant base through remodeling and refranchising initiatives, with around 400 remodels planned for Burger King U.S. in 2025 [9] - The refranchising program aims to transition between 50 and 100 Burger King restaurants in 2025, promoting a capital-light and franchise-led growth model [9] Focus on Menu Innovation - Menu innovation is a key strategy for driving traffic and customer engagement, with Tim Hortons seeing a 6.5% increase in breakfast food sales due to new offerings [10] - Burger King's new menu items, such as the Barbecue Brisket and Crispy Onion Whoppers, have performed well, attracting a younger demographic [11] Financial Performance Indicators - QSR's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 32.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 23.3%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a notable improvement in restaurant-level margins, achieving approximately 17% and aiming to approach 18% [4][22] - The company plans to double its new unit openings in 2026 compared to 2025, with a pipeline that is already under construction [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has refreshed its menu with new items such as burritos, burrito bowls, and salads, while also focusing on chicken on the bone [4] - The introduction of chicken tenders and a new spicy flavor profile is expected to attract more customers [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is positioned at the intersection of quick service and fast casual dining, emphasizing affordability and value in its offerings [7] - The loyalty program has seen a 6% increase in visit frequency among users, indicating a positive response to targeted discounts [8][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a brand turnaround through marketing campaigns like "Let's Get Loco" and menu innovation [3][4] - There is a strong emphasis on operational efficiency, with improvements in labor scheduling and supply chain management contributing to margin enhancements [18][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment remains challenging, with consumers under pressure, but the company feels well-positioned due to its value offerings [6][7] - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term targets of 18%-20% store-level margins, contingent on sales-driving initiatives [22] Other Important Information - The company is investing in remodeling existing restaurants and enhancing equipment to drive sales and operational efficiencies [34][36] - The marketing strategy for 2026 includes six campaigns, reflecting a rich pipeline of innovation and a focus on variety and value [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: What has been accomplished in the brand turnaround? - The company has launched the "Let's Get Loco" campaign and refreshed its menu, focusing on quality and fresh ingredients [3][4] Question: How is the company positioned in the current macro environment? - The company acknowledges the challenging environment but believes it offers affordable and valuable options compared to competitors [6][7] Question: What are the main drivers of margin improvements? - Margin improvements have been driven by evaluating supply chain costs, transitioning to different distributors, and implementing technology for labor efficiency [18][19] Question: What is the long-term target for margins? - The company aims for 18%-20% store-level margins, with a focus on sales-driving initiatives to achieve this [22] Question: How is the company planning to use its free cash flow? - The company plans to use cash for new store development, remodeling existing locations, and enhancing operational efficiencies [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill is focusing on global expansion and digital-first formats to drive long-term growth through new restaurant openings [1] Group 1: Expansion and Growth - Analysts are emphasizing Chipotle's international expansion, menu innovation, and long-term unit growth as key performance drivers [1] - Chipotle currently operates around 4,000 restaurants, with approximately 115 located outside the United States, including Canada, Europe, and the Middle East [2] - The company is expected to achieve unit growth in the range of 8% to 10% over the coming years, with projections of 350 to 370 new openings in 2026 [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Average unit volume (AUV) increased to $3.2 million in 2024 from $2.2 million in 2019, but is expected to decline to $3.05 million in 2025 due to macro pressures [4] - The stock has seen a 32% decline over the past year, attributed to cyclical pressures, but a rebound is anticipated as comparable store sales improve in 2026 [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Initiatives - The company is expected to benefit from macro tailwinds such as higher tax refunds, lower gas prices, and reduced interest rates [5] - New menu initiatives, including a high-protein menu and limited-time offers (LTOs), are expected to attract more customers and enhance results [5] - Plans for a loyalty program refresh and increased marketing spend are also in place to strengthen customer engagement [5] Group 4: Margin Outlook - Margin recovery is anticipated in late 2026 and into 2027, despite facing near-term inflation and tariffs [6]