Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran believes banking regulations are too tight and advocates for a re-evaluation to prevent economic slowdown risks [2][9] - Miran identifies shelter costs as the primary driver of inflation, emphasizing housing's greater impact on the economy compared to the equity market [3][9] - He anticipates significant disinflation in housing services due to population shifts and the lag in market rents affecting inflation data [3] Energy Markets - The U.S. API report shows an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 2.78 million barrels, surpassing the forecast of 2.25 million barrels, contrasting with a previous decrease of 3.674 million barrels [5][9] Equity Markets - Nasdaq reported a substantial increase in U.S. equity options volume for September, reaching 378 million contracts, a 42% year-over-year rise [6][9] Emerging and Frontier Markets - FTSE Russell has placed Egypt on a watch list for potential reclassification from a secondary emerging market to frontier market status, and Nigeria is also under review for similar reclassification [7][9] Corporate Developments - Grupo Mexico has stated it has no interest in a bidding war for Citigroup's Banamex unit, indicating a potential public listing if its current offer is successful [10][9]

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. A surprisingly weak private-sector ADP Employment report, released during an ongoing government shutdown, has intensified fears of a looming economic downturn. Economist Warns Recession Odds Are Not At 0% Level U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly shed 32,000 jobs in September, a stark reversal from consensus expectations of a 51,000 gain. The losses were driven entirely by small and medium-sized businesses, ...

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report revealed a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][3] - The report indicates a significant job loss concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms cutting 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [3][4] - A major downward revision of August's data from a 54,000 job gain to a 3,000 job loss has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [4] Economic Implications - The weak employment report is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider further monetary policy easing, with expectations of a potential quarter percent cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [4] - The job market is described as "stagnant," suggesting that the report may support more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy and consumption [4] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced the most significant job losses, with leisure and hospitality losing 19,000 jobs and professional and business services cutting 13,000 jobs, contributing to a concerning economic outlook [5]

Core Insights - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly in August due to lower mortgage rates attracting buyers back into the market [1][2] - Pending home sales rebounded by 4.0% in August, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% increase [1][2] - The annual increase in pending home sales was 3.8% compared to the previous year [2] Mortgage Rates and Economic Context - Lower mortgage rates are facilitating more homebuyers entering contracts, with the 30-year mortgage rate nearing an 11-month low [2][3] - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, contributing to the decline in mortgage rates [2] - Despite the positive impact of lower mortgage rates, a weakening labor market may limit further gains in home sales, with job gains averaging only 29,000 per month over the last three months compared to 82,000 during the same period last year [3]

Core Insights - New home sales in the US increased significantly by 20.5% in August, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800,000 units, indicating a strong demand in the housing market [1][5] - The decline in mortgage rates, attributed to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing, has contributed to this surge in new home sales [2][3] - However, the labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may limit the sustainability of this growth in home sales [4] Sales Performance - New home sales rose to an annualized rate of 800,000 units in August, a notable increase from the revised July rate of 664,000 units [1][5] - Year-over-year, new home sales increased by 15.4% in August, reflecting a positive trend in the housing sector [2] Mortgage Rates - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, with expectations of continued reductions through 2025 [3] - The average rate for a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.26%, the lowest in 11 months, down from approximately 7.04% in mid-January [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market has softened, with nonfarm payroll gains averaging only 29,000 jobs per month over the three months leading to August, a decrease from 82,000 jobs during the same period last year [4]

Group 1 - Intel experienced its largest daily gain since October 1987, surging 22.8% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in the company [1][9] - Nvidia's stock rose 3.5%, recovering from previous losses due to concerns over Chinese tech firms potentially halting chip purchases [1][9] - The semiconductor index increased by 3.6%, positively impacting the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 technology sector, which rose by 1.36% [1][9] Group 2 - The small-cap Russell 2000 index reached a record high close of 2,466 points, marking its first record since November [2][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 124.10 points (0.27%) to 46,142.42, while the S&P 500 gained 31.61 points (0.48%) to 6,631.96, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 209.40 points (0.94%) to 22,470.73 [5][9] - CrowdStrike's stock increased by 12.8% after multiple brokerages raised their price targets, while Darden Restaurants' shares fell by 7.7% following weak quarterly results [7][10] Group 3 - The number of new unemployment benefit applications in the U.S. decreased last week, although the labor market is showing signs of softening [6][9] - Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of 1.87-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2.5-to-1 [8][10] - The S&P 500 recorded 31 new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite saw 156 new highs and 42 new lows [8][10]

The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting on September 16-17, and it's widely expected that it will lower the Federal Funds rate by 25 bps, and resume the monetary policy easing cycle afterAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any c ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to resume its interest rate cutting cycle, with a widely anticipated 25 basis points cut on Wednesday due to worsening job market indicators [1] - Investors are pricing in a total of 69.6 points in monetary policy easing by the end of 2025, implying nearly three quarter-point cuts this year [2] - There is a possibility that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may emphasize inflation risks and tariff impacts, which could temper market expectations of a dovish Fed [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Company Updates - Nvidia's stock fell 2.8% in premarket trading following an investigation by China's market regulator for potential anti-monopoly law violations [4] - Wall Street's main indexes recorded weekly gains, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching intraday record highs, despite September historically being a poor month for U.S. equities [5] - Warner Bros Discovery's stock tumbled 4.1% before the bell, while a source indicated that Paramount Skydance was preparing a bid for the studio, leading to a surge of over 50% in its stock since the news [6]

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar weakened across the board on Monday as investors wait for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts at this week's meeting and as President Donald Trump renewed calls for faster monetary policy easing. Trump on Monday called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to enact a "bigger" cut to benchmark interest rates and pointed to the housing market in a social media post ahead of the U.S. central bank's meeting this week. Traders are fully pricing in a 25 ...

By Chibuike Oguh and Amanda Cooper NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares hit a fresh record high on Monday as markets positioned for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin its monetary policy easing cycle this week. Gold prices hit a record high as the U.S. dollar weakened. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis-point cut at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, with the probability of such a move near 100%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. MSCI's All-Country Index rose as high as 977 ...