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Bloomberg· 2025-10-09 08:03
Discovering the true neutral rate https://t.co/9urWQVtYyt ...
Goldman Sachs' Robert Kaplan: Expectations for economic re-acceleration are reasonable
Youtube· 2025-10-07 15:50
Economic Impact of the Shutdown - The current economic slowdown is influenced by the government shutdown, but the market is primarily driven by expectations of future tech investments and regulatory relief [1][2] - There is a mismatch in the job market, with many open positions in sectors like construction, but a lack of qualified candidates willing to take those jobs [3] Inflation Trends - Inflation is currently running above the target rate, with services inflation remaining particularly high due to factors like rents and a tight labor market [4][5][6] - The impact of tariffs is expected to intensify, leading to margin erosion for companies, especially small businesses reliant on imports [7][8][9] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is advised to be cautious with further rate cuts given the inflation levels, with the neutral rate estimated to be around 3.5% to 3.75% [10][11][12] - The ongoing inflation is seen as a regressive tax affecting lower-income workers, who have lost significant purchasing power [12][13]
Fed's Miran Says He's Ready to Change His View on Inflation If Housing Jumps
Bloomberg Television· 2025-10-03 14:48
Well, good morning, Steve. Thank you for joining us on this non jobs day. Jobs day.We get no government primary economic data because of the shutdown right now. So let me start by asking if that continues. As a member of the Open Market Committee, would you feel comfortable voting for a significant cut in interest rates if you don't have data on employment and on inflation.Good morning and thanks for having me. Look, I think it's important to recognize, first of all, that as you're pointing out, access to h ...
Fed's Miran Doesn't Think the Neutral Rate Is Zero
Youtube· 2025-10-03 14:24
GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN HERE AT THE DESK ALONG WITH MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL: GOOD MORNING, STEVE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON THIS NONJOBS DAY JOBS DAY.WE GET NO DATA BECAUSE OF THE SHOWDOWN. IF THAT CONTINUES AS A MEMBER OF THE OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE WOULD YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE VOTING FOR A SIGNIFICANT CUT IN INTEREST RATES IF YOU DON'T HAVE DATA ON EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION. STEPHEN: GOOD MORNING A THANKS FOR HAVING ME.I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT AS YOU ARE POINTING OUT ACCESS TO HIGH QUALITY DAT ...
Fed's Miran Doesn't Think the Neutral Rate Is Zero
Bloomberg Television· 2025-10-03 14:24
GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN HERE AT THE DESK ALONG WITH MICHAEL MCKEE. MICHAEL: GOOD MORNING, STEVE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON THIS NONJOBS DAY JOBS DAY.WE GET NO DATA BECAUSE OF THE SHOWDOWN. IF THAT CONTINUES AS A MEMBER OF THE OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE WOULD YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE VOTING FOR A SIGNIFICANT CUT IN INTEREST RATES IF YOU DON'T HAVE DATA ON EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION. STEPHEN: GOOD MORNING A THANKS FOR HAVING ME.I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT AS YOU ARE POINTING OUT ACCESS TO HIGH QUALITY DAT ...
Fed's Barkin on Eco Data Risks, Business Uncertainty, Neutral Rate
Youtube· 2025-09-26 12:41
Joining us this morning, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin here on Bloomberg Television and radio worldwide and on radio. They can't see it, but on television, people can see you have a bit of a bandage on your head. You just had one of those older people's kind of operations.Yeah, there's no truth that it was what happened in the last meeting. All right. Speaking of the last meeting, we came out of that believing that or at least Wall Street that you're going to cut rates again in October and maybe in Dece ...
Fed’s Barkin on Eco Data Risks, Business Uncertainty, Neutral Rate
Bloomberg Television· 2025-09-26 12:41
Joining us this morning, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin here on Bloomberg Television and radio worldwide and on radio. They can't see it, but on television, people can see you have a bit of a bandage on your head. You just had one of those older people's kind of operations.Yeah, there's no truth that it was what happened in the last meeting. All right. Speaking of the last meeting, we came out of that believing that or at least Wall Street that you're going to cut rates again in October and maybe in Dece ...
Expect the Fed to continue to gradually cut rates, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra
CNBC Television· 2025-09-26 11:23
Market Outlook & Strategy - Diversified portfolios are recommended, with fixed income providing both income and diversification against economic slowdowns [5] - Fixed income is attractive as a hedge against potential slowdowns, especially if the labor market weakens [5][6] - Bond funds are considered sensible, particularly those with exposure to structural AI, strong corporate balance sheets, credit, and duration [7] - Extending duration is advised, potentially banking on a range of 375 to 425 basis points (375%-425%) [19] Interest Rates & Fed Policy - Interest rates are viewed as restrictive, justifying the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cuts [4] - The Fed is expected to continue gradually cutting rates, potentially reaching a neutral rate, with debate around whether that rate is 250 or 300 basis points (250%-300%) [17][18] - The current Fed funds rate is at 425 basis points (425%) [18] Labor Market & Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty around tariffs is causing companies to pause hiring [9] - Risks to the labor market are balanced, with potential for both downside (increased firing) and upside (increased hiring) [12] - A potential government shutdown could further cloud the labor market outlook, especially if it involves layoffs [15] Investment Opportunities - 5-year and 10-year high-grade corporate paper are favored [8] - Opportunities exist in double B and single B high-yield corporate bonds [8] - Investment-grade credit offers a yield of around 550 basis points (550%), while triple B+ bonds yield approximately 650 basis points (650%) [20]
Fed's Miran on Neutral Rate, Tight Monetary Policy, Rapid Rate Cuts
Youtube· 2025-09-25 13:23
Governor, welcome to the program, sir. We've got tons of time to talk about what's going to happen next. Your thoughts on the labor market, the balance of risk, the broader economy.I actually wanted to lead the conversation with this one. Governor, what was your experience like. I'm sure this was unexpected 12 months ago.What was it like walking into the room and was it different to what you expected. Good morning and thanks for having me. It's great to see you again.Look, you know, walking into the room, y ...
Fed’s Miran on Neutral Rate, Tight Monetary Policy, Rapid Rate Cuts
Bloomberg Television· 2025-09-25 13:23
Governor, welcome to the program, sir. We've got tons of time to talk about what's going to happen next. Your thoughts on the labor market, the balance of risk, the broader economy.I actually wanted to lead the conversation with this one. Governor, what was your experience like. I'm sure this was unexpected 12 months ago.What was it like walking into the room and was it different to what you expected. Good morning and thanks for having me. It's great to see you again.Look, you know, walking into the room, y ...