Welcome to February 2026, where the “Art of the Deal” has apparently been renamed “The Art of Making Every Portfolio Manager in Manhattan Reach for the Extra-Strength Tums.” If you thought the market was volatile in the early 2020s, the current landscape is less of a financial chart and more of a heart rate monitor for someone running a marathon while eating a deep-fried Twinkie. Between $550 billion trade deals with Japan and 100% tariffs on foreign cinema, the S&P 500 is currently behaving like a cat on a ...

Key TakeawaysThomas Pritzker has resigned as Executive Chairman of Hyatt Hotels Corp (H), citing his past association with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell as a significant misjudgment.The European Union is moving to require that Electric Vehicles (EVs) be at least 70% EU-made to qualify for state subsidies, a major protectionist shift aimed at countering Chinese imports.Sky Group, a subsidiary of Comcast (CMCSA), will not renew its long-standing content licensing pact with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) ...

Core Viewpoint - Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, emphasized that unchecked sovereign debt poses the greatest threat to financial stability by 2026, rather than private market speculation [1] Group 1: Public Debt Concerns - Griffin highlighted the alarming rise in U.S. national debt, which currently stands at approximately $38 trillion, with $30.824 trillion held by the public and $7.66 trillion in intragovernmental holdings [2][3] - He criticized global government spending as reckless, contrasting it with the private capital risks that characterized the 1920s [2][3] - Christine Lagarde warned against fiscal dependency on central banks, stating that borrowing without a sustainable growth plan could lead to societal dislocation [3] Group 2: AI and Economic Growth - The panel discussed whether the anticipated productivity boost from artificial intelligence (AI) could counterbalance rising deficits, with Griffin expressing skepticism about AI being a guaranteed solution to fiscal irresponsibility [4] - Griffin noted the uncertainty surrounding the economic benefits of AI, despite the industry's need for significant hype to fund infrastructure costs [4] Group 3: Protectionism and Geopolitical Fragmentation - Griffin raised concerns about the resurgence of protectionism, indicating that new tariff regimes could harm consumers and foster cronyism [5] - Lagarde added that geopolitical fragmentation threatens essential cross-border cooperation needed for scaling AI technologies, which could hinder economic recovery [6] Group 4: AI-Linked ETFs Performance - The performance of various AI-linked ETFs was presented, showing mixed results over different time frames, with some ETFs like Defiance Quantum ETF achieving a one-year performance of 38.31% [7][8]

Economic Environment - At the start of 2025, concerns about investing in China were heightened due to a new protectionist US administration and instability in China's real estate market [1] - By the end of 2025, many fears were deemed overblown as the Chinese government focused on economic stimulation, leading to increased buybacks by public companies [2] Company Performance - ByteDance, after selling a majority stake in its US TikTok operations, is now valued between $350 billion and $370 billion, marking a significant increase in its worth [2] - Hedge funds that invested in China saw substantial returns, with Bridgewater's China Total Returns fund generating a 34.2% return and Tekne Capital achieving over 50% [3] Investment Strategies - Kothari's firm, which manages $1.5 billion, invested in Chinese companies like DiDi Global and GDS, capitalizing on the low valuations of strong companies amid headwinds [4] - China-focused funds performed well, with Pinpoint's strategy returning over 24% and George Jiang's Golden China fund close to 33% [5] Market Trends - The average return for China-focused funds was nearly 18%, surpassing the industry average of 10.7% [6] - Investors are closely monitoring the evolving US-China relationship, particularly regarding trade agreements related to chips and potential geopolitical tensions [6]

Core Insights - Rokos Capital achieved a 21% return in 2025, following a nearly 31% gain in 2024, indicating strong performance in the macro hedge fund sector [1][5] - The macro hedge fund industry had a robust year in 2025, driven by geopolitical factors such as tariff policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine [2] - Bridgewater Associates reported its most profitable year ever, with a 33% gain in its flagship Pure Alpha fund, while Discovery Capital saw an increase of over 35% [2] Performance Summary - Rokos Capital: 21% return in 2025, following 31% in 2024 [1][5] - Bridgewater Asia Total Return: 36.9% [4] - Discovery Capital: 35.6% [4] - Bridgewater China: 34.2% [4] - Bridgewater Pure Alpha: 33% [4] - D.E. Shaw Oculus: 28.2% [4] - EDL: 27.1% [4] - Bridgewater All Weather: 20.4% [4] - Brevan Howard Emerging Markets: 15.4% [4] - Taula: 11% [4] - Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: 8% [4] - Brevan Howard Master: 0.8% [4] Industry Trends - The macro hedge fund sector is expected to continue performing well, with reports indicating that protectionist policies will create varied economic conditions, leading to more trading opportunities for skilled managers [4] - Chris Rokos is noted for taking on most of the risk within his firm and has raised fees to capture a quarter of trading profits, reflecting a shift back to a model dominated by star traders [3][4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Steel Industry**, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics as of November 2025 [6][7][8]. Core Insights - **Policy Changes**: The EU has proposed to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50%, marking a strong protectionist stance. This may lead to additional policy tailwinds with the upcoming CBAM review [6][7]. - **Market Conditions**: Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) price gains have been primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6][7]. Company Analysis Carbon Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **ArcelorMittal**: Offers the greatest operating leverage to policy tightening due to lower utilization rates, allowing for volume growth and import displacement [9]. - **voestalpine**: Maintains resilient EBITDA/t during downturns and has manageable decarbonization risks, enhancing free cash flow [9]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Salzgitter**: Faces intensified cash spending on decarbonization initiatives, with current valuations lacking a safety margin [9]. - **thyssenkrupp**: Trading at a premium to its sum-of-the-parts valuation, with execution risks in portfolio simplification [9]. Stainless Steel - **Preferred Companies**: - **Acerinox**: Strong near-term earnings profile due to US exposure and high-margin alloys business, with attractive growth prospects from US expansion [10]. - **Aperam**: Diversified business model but faces challenges from weak European demand [10]. - **Least Preferred**: - **Outokumpu**: Lacks exposure beyond stainless steel, leading to lagging earnings momentum [10]. Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers for steel include **construction** and **automotive** sectors, with significant contributions from various regions [19][20]. - **Automotive Demand**: New vehicle registrations in Western Europe, the US, and China are tracked, indicating varying trends across these markets [27][28][29]. Supply Dynamics - **Production Trends**: Global steel production is shifting towards Asia, with significant output from China, the EU, and the US [17][66][67]. - **Inventory Levels**: Steel inventories across the value chain are monitored, with implications for pricing and supply stability [70][71]. Trade Flows - **Import Quotas**: The report details EU steel and stainless steel quotas by product, indicating utilization rates and import sources [88][91]. - **Net Trade Flows**: China remains a significant player in steel exports, with detailed statistics on monthly exports to the EU [76][77]. Economic Indicators - **Steel Pricing**: Historical pricing trends for EU and China HRC are analyzed, with implications for gross profit margins [97][98]. - **EBITDA Trends**: The report discusses EBITDA per tonne projections and historical performance, providing insights into profitability trends in the steel sector [115][116]. Conclusion - The European steel industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy changes, market dynamics, and shifting demand patterns. Key players like ArcelorMittal and voestalpine are positioned favorably, while others face challenges that could impact their valuations and operational resilience [6][9][10].

Industry Trend - A new wave of Chinese low-cost innovation is coming [1] Strategic Response - Knee-jerk protectionism in the name of security or safety would be a mistake for the rest of the world [1]

Government & Policy - National governments and the European Commission possess potential measures to safeguard the continent's manufacturers [1] - The "nuclear option" for protecting manufacturers remains unused [1]

Industry Impact - A protection upgrade that Brazil wants on brazilwood trees would create challenges for both the trees and musicians [1]

Tucked into President Trump’s trade deals formalizing higher tariffs on goods from Asia this week are provisions for a global economic frontier the US wants to stay free of protectionism: digital commerce https://t.co/AnKYRpKFA6 ...