Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 | peter.oppenheimer@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and ot ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and reporter on commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. at various times throughout his career [1] - Jim is the owner of "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets," which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory services [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and served as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also been a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices increased for the first time in two sessions, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after a significant drop last week [1][2] - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index decreased by 0.2% to 97.42, providing a temporary boost to gold prices [2] - Analysts caution that the support for gold and silver is fragile, as it is not based on a fundamental shift in monetary policy or the global risk landscape [3] Group 2 - The most-active April gold contract rose by $282.40, or 6.1%, settling at $4,935 per ounce, marking its best one-day gain since March 19, 2009 [4] - Silver prices increased by 8.2%, or $6.29, settling at $83.30 per ounce after a significant drop of about 33% over the previous two sessions [5] - The unusual rise in precious metals occurred despite a recovering risk appetite in the market, as indicated by the performance of major stock indices [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly focusing on precious metals like Gold and Silver, which experienced significant corrections recently [1][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Precious Metals Volatility**: Gold and Silver saw their sharpest corrections since the 1980s, with Gold dropping by 11% and Silver by 31% after reaching record highs [1]. - **S&P 500 Performance**: The S&P 500 briefly hit 7,000 during the 4Q25 earnings releases, with 47% of market cap reporting and 59% beating consensus EPS by more than one standard deviation [1]. - **Dollar Movement**: The Dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022 but reversed its trend later in the week. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50–3.75%, citing improvements in growth and labor markets [1]. - **ISM Manufacturing Index**: The ISM manufacturing index reported a strong figure of 52.6, surpassing the median forecast of 48.5 [1]. - **Risk Appetite Indicator**: The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) peaked at 5-year highs two weeks ago, driven by growth optimism, but has since moderated. Key drivers included small-cap stocks, cyclicals, emerging market assets, and Dollar weakness [2]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions have exerted upward pressure on commodities, particularly precious metals, which rallied sharply due to a liquidity squeeze in London [3]. - **Gold/S&P 500 Ratio**: The Gold/S&P 500 ratio increased, indicating a divergence between precious metals and equities, with Gold volatility spiking to levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis [3][21]. - **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The company remains modestly pro-risk in asset allocation for 2026, despite the elevated risk appetite increasing the potential for volatility. The expectation is for a modest decline in the Dollar this year, particularly against emerging market and cyclical currencies [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Cross-Asset Correlations**: There is a noted negative correlation between the US Dollar and various assets, particularly global equities excluding the US, emerging market equities, and commodities like Gold [3][17]. - **Future Projections**: The commodities team projects a price of $5,400 for Gold by December 2026, with specific hedging strategies recommended in a rising Dollar scenario [9]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report highlights the importance of managing US asset dominance through regional diversification and selective FX hedging [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly precious metals, and the implications for market strategies and asset allocation.

Core Insights - Focused Wealth Management sold 300,114 shares of the Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), valued at approximately $22.66 million based on quarterly average pricing [1][2] - The fund's holdings in VBIL decreased significantly, representing only 0.07% of its 13F reportable assets, down from 2.48% in the previous quarter [2][3] Fund Performance - As of January 28, VBIL shares were priced at $75.62, reflecting a 0.75% increase over the past year [3][4] - The fund has a 30-day SEC yield of 3.56% [4][10] Fund Overview - The Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF is designed for low-risk short-term capital allocation, primarily investing in U.S. Treasury bills [6][7] - The fund operates on a passive investment model, aiming to replicate its benchmark index through a sampling strategy [7][8] Market Context - The significant reduction in VBIL holdings suggests a shift in capital allocation as investors seek better opportunities amid rising risk appetite [9][11] - The portfolio is heavily weighted towards equity ETFs, with over 40% allocated to large-cap growth, value, and technology funds, indicating a preference for riskier assets as volatility subsides [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI)**, which has reached its highest levels since 2021, indicating a strong risk-on sentiment in the market [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - The RAI reached **1.09**, marking the highest level since 2021 and the **98th percentile since 1991**. This indicates a broad risk-on repricing, with **17 out of 27 inputs** of the RAI above **0.8** in z-score terms [1][12]. - Key bullish components contributing to the elevated RAI include: - Small vs. Large cap equities - Emerging Markets (EM) vs. Developed Markets (DM) equities - Bonos spreads - AUD/JPY currency pair [1][12]. - The gold rally suggests a more cautious sentiment; excluding gold, the RAI would be nearly **1.2** [1]. - The **Global growth factor (PC1)** was identified as the main driver behind the increase in the RAI [1][42]. - Historically, elevated RAI levels have been associated with positive equity returns, particularly in the subsequent **12 months**, although returns tend to slow after about **6 months** [2][4]. - The most negative episode occurred in **May 2007**, while the most positive was in **2021**, which coincided with a prolonged period of RAI above **1** [2]. Additional Important Insights - Elevated RAI levels alone do not signal a bearish turn; a supportive macro backdrop is necessary for sustaining positive equity returns [3][4]. - The distribution of S&P 500 returns is influenced by the starting RAI level, with a higher likelihood of small corrections when starting from an RAI above **0.9** [3]. - The company maintains a **modestly pro-risk** asset allocation for **2026**, favoring equities while being underweight in credit [5][21]. - Selective options hedges are being considered for both downside and upside growth risks, with attractive spreads identified on Nasdaq/S&P 500 and call spreads on various indices [6]. Conclusion - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high risk appetite, supported by macroeconomic factors, which could lead to sustained positive equity returns. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on this environment while managing risks through selective hedging strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current positioning and sentiment in the financial markets, particularly focusing on equities, commodities, and investor behavior amidst geopolitical tensions. Core Insights - **Investor Leverage**: There has been a modest increase in investor leverage, with margin borrowing rising significantly since April 2025, similar to trends observed in 2001, 2007, and 2021. Hedge fund leverage remains above the 85th percentile, indicating a high level of risk-taking among investors [3][11][135]. - **Market Sentiment**: The positioning and sentiment indicator is at the 67th percentile, reflecting bullish sentiment among investors. Risk appetite is elevated, with the Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) above 1, the highest since April 2021. Positive flows in risky assets continue, particularly in equities [5][8][135]. - **Equity Positioning**: Asset managers' equity positioning is elevated, with the NAAIM Index at the 81st percentile. There is a notable increase in net short VIX positioning, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the equity markets [5][16][135]. - **Foreign Investment**: There has been a significant increase in foreign investor flows into emerging markets (EM), Japanese, and European equities, suggesting a growing interest in these regions [5][16][135]. - **Commodity Positioning**: Geopolitical developments have led to increased positioning in commodity-exposed assets, particularly in metals like gold and copper, while oil has lagged behind. Fund flows into commodities and materials equity funds have seen elevated inflows [4][5][135]. Additional Important Insights - **Risk-Off Hedging**: The cost of risk-off hedges has increased, with the HYG put-call skew reaching levels not seen since 2012, indicating a rising appetite for protection against downside risks [3][5][135]. - **Retail Investor Activity**: US retail investors have shown increased activity, particularly in S&P 500 stocks excluding the MAG 7, contributing to broader market strength [5][16][135]. - **Record Outflows**: Domestic Chinese ETFs experienced record outflows of approximately $49 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards domestic equities [5][16][135]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current market dynamics, investor behavior, and sector-specific trends.

Indonesian stocks record their first outflow since October, driven by cooling risk appetite https://t.co/bJRqCobtDD ...

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis covering various financial instruments including the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Gold Spot in US Dollars, US Dollar Index Futures, and Bitcoin [1] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the performance of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, indicating fluctuations and trends in the currency pair [1] - It discusses the current status of Gold Spot prices in US Dollars, reflecting investor sentiment and market conditions [1] - The US Dollar Index Futures are examined, showcasing the overall strength of the US Dollar in the global market [1] - Bitcoin's market performance is analyzed, noting its volatility and potential investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis covering the Euro against the US Dollar, the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, Gold Spot prices in US Dollars, and Silver Spot prices in US Dollars [1]