Pharma giant Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) is enjoying a boost today, after the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) accepted the company's flu vaccine application for review. The company made modifications to the application after it was rejected last week. MRNA was last seen up 5.7% to trade at $46.45, heading for a third-straight gain as it moves back toward its Jan. 22 more than one-year high of $55.20. Since the start of the year, the equity is already up 55.4%. A bout of short covering could help push Mo ...

Core Viewpoint - Kroger Co has appointed former Walmart executive Greg Foran as its new CEO, leading to a 7.7% increase in its share price to $72.67, following the ousting of former CEO Rodney McMullen due to ethical concerns [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kroger's shares are on track for their largest single-day percentage gain since June, with a year-to-date increase of 16.3% [2] - The stock reached its highest level since August, surpassing the resistance of its 200-day moving average, which had previously limited gains in November and December [2] - The increase in stock price may be partially due to short covering, with 31.33 million shares sold short, representing 5.4% of the available float, equating to nearly a week's worth of buying power [2] Group 2: Options Activity - At the International Securities Exchange, Cboe Options Exchange, and NASDAQ OMX PHLX, Kroger's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.93 indicates a significantly more bullish sentiment among options traders compared to the past year [3] - Today's options activity shows 2,314 puts traded, which is three times the intraday average volume, against 3,779 calls [3] - The most actively traded contract is the April 65 put, with new positions being sold to open [3]

Core Insights - Tapestry Inc's stock increased by 3.7% to $134.68, reaching a record high of $142.22 after reporting better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results [1] - Coach's quarterly revenue rose by 25%, driven by the popularity of Tabby handbags among Gen-Z customers, prompting Tapestry to raise its full-year forecast [1] Stock Performance - Year-over-year, Tapestry's stock is up 84%, with a 36% increase in the last three months [2] - Prior to the recent surge, the stock found support at the $125 level and the 50-day moving average [2] Options Activity - There is significant bullish activity in Tapestry's options, with call options being traded at seven times the average intraday pace [3] - The most popular options include the June 60 call and the February 130 call [3] - Tapestry has historically exceeded options traders' volatility expectations, reflected in a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 94 out of 100 [3] Short Interest - Short interest in Tapestry has been increasing, now representing 6.5% of its available float, equating to nearly five days of potential buying power [4] - The recent stock bounce may be partially attributed to short covering, as many short positions are now underwater [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a weaker dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall outlook for sugar remains bearish due to anticipated global surpluses [2][6] Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Global sugar production is expected to exceed demand, with estimates of a 2.74 million metric ton (MMT) surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 metric ton surplus for 2026/27 [2] - Covrig Analytics has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT previously [6] Regional Production Updates - Brazil's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with an overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India is expected to boost sugar exports, with the government potentially allowing additional exports to alleviate domestic supply issues [5] - The Indian government has set a quota for sugar exports, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to a rally in the Brazilian real, which has reached a 1.5-month high against the dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - The global sugar market is facing a surplus, with estimates for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus raised to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) [4] Group 1: Brazilian Sugar Market - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - The stronger Brazilian real is discouraging export sales from sugar producers in Brazil [1] Group 2: Indian Sugar Market - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season has risen by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could lead to exacerbated price declines, as funds have increased their net long positions to a record high [2] - The outlook for a global sugar surplus is negatively impacting prices, with projections indicating a decrease in surplus for the 2026/27 season [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown volatility, with recent increases attributed to the strength of the Brazilian real and short covering in futures markets [1] - India's sugar production is projected to rise significantly, impacting global sugar supply dynamics [2][3] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - On March 6, NY world sugar 11 closed up by +0.13 (+0.89%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 increased by +2.50 (+0.60%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows last Friday due to indications of stronger sugar output in India [2] - NY sugar reached a 2.5-month high last Monday based on expectations of reduced future sugar supplies from Brazil [4] Group 2: Indian Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a 25% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025-26, reaching 11.90 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 9.54 MMT the previous year [2] - The ISMA raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year [2] - The Indian government plans to allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply issues [3] Group 3: Brazilian Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27, down from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26 [4] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with an increased ratio of cane crushed for sugar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has entered a bullish seasonal period, with historical trends suggesting a potential rise in the index during the last trading days of December and early January, supported by a stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP report [1][3]. Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,929.94 on Christmas Eve, surpassing its late October intraday high of 6,920, indicating a breakout after previous unsuccessful attempts to clear the 6,900 mark [2]. - The SPX is expected to rise to approximately 6,967.91 by January 5, based on historical performance during the "Santa Claus rally" period, which has averaged a gain of 1.3% since 1950 [3]. Technical Analysis - The SPX's recent breakout marks the second occurrence this year of surpassing prior all-time highs, with the first instance occurring in late June, leading to a sustained upward trend [5]. - Potential resistance is noted at the 7,000 level, which is just 70 points above the recent close, and could act as a psychological barrier as well as an options-related resistance point [8]. - If the SPX fails to maintain its breakout and falls below late October highs, initial support levels are identified at 6,760 and 6,790 [9]. Sentiment and Short Interest - The short interest on SPX components has increased by 2.5% to a multi-year high, indicating a sentiment that could fuel further rallies if a breakout is sustained [12]. - Total short interest is up 45% compared to the 2024 close, suggesting a highly shorted market that may lead to short-covering rallies or brief pullbacks as shorts cover losing positions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is experiencing a mixed trading environment as it approaches the end of 2025, with historical seasonal trends favoring bullish movements, yet technical resistance and market sentiment may limit upside potential [1][11][15] Market Performance - The SPX closed at 6,834.50 as of last Wednesday, showing signs of weakness following a recent rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [2] - The index has been fluctuating between 6,550 and 6,900 since mid-September, indicating a lack of decisive movement from either bulls or bears [4] - Recent trading has seen the SPX return above key moving averages and the 6,760 level, but it remains below the October closing high of 6,887 [3] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has been flat, contributing to the choppy market action, while gains in basic materials, financials, and consumer cyclicals have supported the SPX [7] - The market is characterized as a stock picker's environment, with specific sectors driving performance [7] Options Market Dynamics - Selling options premium on broad market indices or ETFs has been a successful strategy, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) near its 2025 lows [8][9] - The upcoming quarterly expiration for SPX options at the 7,000 strike could present a significant resistance point if the index breaks above 6,900 [10] Sentiment and Cash Holdings - Global asset managers' cash holdings have dropped to a record low of 3.3% in December, down from 3.7% in November, which may limit the potential for further equity purchases [12] - The sentiment among short-term traders appears to be turning sour, indicating a potential lack of momentum to drive stocks higher [13][14]

Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty started trading positively, with Sensex rising by 482.7 points (0.56%) to 85,412.06 and Nifty increasing by 160.2 points (0.61%) to 26,126.60 [1] - Major gainers included Infosys, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Trent, HCL Tech, and Bharti Airtel, while UltraTech Cement and Power Grid were the only laggards [2] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth ₹1,830.89 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth ₹5,722.89 crore in the previous trade [2] - The participation of DIIs has been effective in absorbing selling pressure, while FIIs turning net buyers has boosted market confidence [4] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a potential year-end rally driven by a reversal in the rupee and increased FII buying in the cash market, which could lead to short covering and higher benchmark indices [3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.73% to $60.91 per barrel, which may influence market dynamics [3]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.22 (+1.48%), reaching a 2-week high, while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.30 (+1.01%), achieving a 1-week high [1] - The recent rally in sugar prices is attributed to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Sugar Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] India’s Production Impact - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5]