Core Viewpoint - March U.S. Treasury note futures are presenting a selling opportunity due to ongoing price weakness, with prices recently hitting a more-than-three-month low [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart for March U.S. T-Note futures indicates a downward trend, with the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator showing a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line and both are trending down [1]. - A move below the chart support at Friday's low of 112.03.5 would signal a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective set at 110.00.0 or lower. Technical resistance is identified at 113.00.0, where a protective buy stop should be placed [3]. Economic Context - The U.S. economic outlook is mixed but not overly weak, with market sentiment suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term due to persistent price inflation, which is bearish for U.S. Treasury prices [2].

Core Insights - Stubborn inflation is expected to persist, influencing consumer behavior and spending patterns in 2026 [1] - A K-shaped recovery in consumption indicates that different sectors will experience varying levels of growth, leading to a divergence in economic performance [1] - Sectoral rotation will be a significant trend, with investors shifting their focus to industries that are likely to benefit from the prevailing economic conditions [1] Inflation - Inflation rates are projected to remain high, affecting purchasing power and consumer confidence [1] - The persistence of inflation may lead to changes in monetary policy and interest rates, impacting investment strategies [1] Consumption Patterns - The K-shaped consumption trend suggests that higher-income households will continue to spend, while lower-income households may struggle, leading to unequal recovery [1] - This divergence in spending will create opportunities in luxury goods and services, while essential goods may face challenges [1] Sectoral Rotation - Investors are likely to rotate their investments towards sectors that are expected to outperform in an inflationary environment, such as energy and commodities [1] - Technology and consumer discretionary sectors may face headwinds as consumers prioritize essential spending over discretionary items [1]

Group 1 - Gold and silver have significantly outperformed Bitcoin in yearly returns, with gold returning 86% and silver 60%, while Bitcoin has declined by 1.2% [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to fears of monetary debasement, macroeconomic uncertainty, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, leading investors to anticipate a potential "policy error" from the Fed [2] - Key inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, are trending towards 3% annually, particularly in services and housing, contributing to concerns about persistent inflation [3] Group 2 - Traditional equities, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have also seen gains of 21% and 16% year-to-date, respectively, contrasting with Bitcoin's performance [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing a phase of "mid-cycle repair" following a liquidation shock in October, while equities are in a "late-cycle melt-up" driven by earnings growth and AI investments [4] - On-chain data indicates an increase in total supply in loss, suggesting capitulation among short-term holders, which is characteristic of a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market [5] Group 3 - Despite Bitcoin's current underperformance, there is an expectation that its disconnect from precious metals and U.S. equities will be temporary, with forecasts indicating a recovery aligned with global liquidity and equity markets [6]

Core Insights - Major indexes are trading near all-time highs despite concerns over trade tensions, a potential AI bubble, persistent inflation, and a weakening job market [2] Group 1: Market Overview - Equities are currently valued at levels not seen since the late stages of the Internet boom [2] - The Biotech Forum offers a model portfolio featuring 12-20 high upside biotech stocks, along with live discussions on trade ideas and weekly market commentary [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The Biotech Forum provides updates on portfolio performance every weekend, indicating a proactive approach to investment management [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges in making interest-rate decisions due to the government shutdown, which has resulted in a lack of critical economic data [1][2][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by sticky inflation and weakening job growth, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the situation accurately [5][6] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has halted the publication of essential employment and inflation reports, which are crucial for the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices [3][4] - The core PCE inflation rate rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, remaining above the Fed's 2% target, while job growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and job losses reported in June for the first time in four years [5][6] Monetary Policy Challenges - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has described the current situation as a "challenging" and "turbulent" period for monetary policy, with expectations for a potential 25 basis-point rate cut this month despite the lack of fresh data [6][7] - Economists suggest that the Fed should still consider cutting rates in October, even while operating without complete data due to the ongoing government shutdown [7] Political Pressures - There is increasing political pressure on the Fed, particularly from the White House, which has been criticized for attempting to influence the central bank's decisions [10][11] - Former officials and economists express concern over the administration's push for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate growth ahead of the 2026 election cycle, with demands for cuts as deep as three percent [10][11]

Group 1 - The current year is characterized by numerous uncertainties and opportunities, including sticky inflation, weakening labor demand, poor consumer sentiment, tariffs, and AI disruption [2] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research on various investment vehicles such as REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1]

Core Insights - The current market environment is described as very challenging, with several macroeconomic factors to monitor, including persistent inflation, weakening employment, technological disruptions, and geopolitical issues [1]. Group 1 - The market is facing sticky inflation, which poses a significant challenge for investors [1]. - Employment trends are weakening, indicating potential economic instability [1]. - Technological disruptions are impacting various sectors, necessitating close observation [1]. - Geopolitical factors are also contributing to the complexity of the market landscape [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates 15% to 20% growth in fee-related earnings (FRE) for the current year and over 20% in the long term, driven by strong asset management performance and growing retirement needs globally [78][80] - The company manages over $800 billion in assets, with a significant portion generating fee-related earnings [78][79] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The asset-based finance (ABF) business is highlighted as a clear market leader, with strong origination capabilities and a favorable investment-grade backdrop [22][23] - The hybrid business, which combines elements of credit and equity, is seen as underappreciated but poised for significant growth due to macroeconomic trends [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company notes a shift in LP allocations, with traditional investment-grade managers beginning to embrace alternative strategies, particularly in asset-backed securities (ABS) [30][31] - There is a growing demand for private credit solutions, with the company seeing strong performance in NAV lending and capital solutions for financial sponsors [68][69] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on four major industry drivers: global pension deficits, growth in retail wealth channels, industrial renaissance needs, and public-private convergence [13][14] - The company anticipates continued consolidation in the alternative investment industry, with larger firms capturing a greater share of the market [14][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in navigating the current economic environment characterized by higher rates and sticky inflation, viewing it as an interesting time for investment [5][10] - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth strategy, emphasizing the importance of robust risk management and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions [12][74] Other Important Information - The company is actively developing new products to address the global retirement crisis, including lifetime income products and capital-efficient solutions [42][43] - The company is positioned as a key player in the wealth management space, with a strong focus on semi-liquid and evergreen products [48][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: What areas of your asset management business are scaling the fastest right now? - The asset-based finance and hybrid business lines are scaling rapidly, driven by strong market demand and the company's early positioning in these areas [22][25] Question: Are you seeing any major changes in LP allocations geographically? - While there is some initial concern regarding geographic allocations post-Liberation Day, the majority of LPs continue to engage with the company without significant impact on fundraising [36][38] Question: How is the company addressing the global retirement crisis? - The company is developing a variety of products aimed at providing lifetime income and addressing the needs of retirees, leveraging its established distribution channels [42][43] Question: What is the outlook for competition in the annuity channel? - The company acknowledges increased competition but remains confident in its ability to execute effectively and maintain market share through strategic partnerships [76][77] Question: How does the company view the current investment environment? - Management sees a broad and diverse pipeline of opportunities, particularly in NAV lending and high-grade capital solutions, despite potential regulatory changes impacting banks [68][71]

Group 1 - KKR's Co-CEO Scott Nuttall participated in the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, discussing the current economic landscape and inflation concerns [1][2]. - The company acknowledges the recent volatility in the market, highlighting concerns about persistent inflation, prolonged high interest rates, and potential economic slowdown or stagflation [4]. - KKR's internal view suggests that inflation rates are expected to remain elevated for a longer period, which aligns with the company's historical perspective over its 49 years of operation [5].

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a strong bull run in 2023 and 2024, but 2025 has shown mixed results due to concerns over persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's uncertain stance on interest rates after a 1% cut in the benchmark lending rate last year [1] - Severe volatility has affected Wall Street since early April, primarily due to the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies by the Trump administration, with baseline tariffs at 10% but actual rates exceeding 70% for several major trading partners [2] - Retaliatory tariffs from other countries have raised fears of a global trade war, although some trade negotiations have been settled and others are ongoing [3] Company Highlights Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris has shown strong pricing power and is expanding its smoke-free product portfolio, aiming to become substantially smoke-free by 2030 [7] - The company anticipates robust growth in 2025, with a projected 2% increase in volume and smoke-free products expected to grow by 12-14% [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 8.1% and 13.7%, respectively, with a stock price increase of 44.7% year to date [9] Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) - Sprouts Farmers is focusing on product innovation, e-commerce, and private label offerings, which have contributed to better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2024 results [10] - The company expects net sales to rise between 10.5% and 12.5% in 2025, with comparable sales anticipated to increase by 4.5-6.5% [11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 13.7% and 35.5%, respectively, with a stock price surge of 32.2% year to date [12] Newmont Corp. (NEM) - Newmont is progressing with growth projects, including the Tanami expansion and the acquisition of Newcrest, which enhances its portfolio and synergies [13] - The Ahafo North project has received full funding approval, with commercial production expected to start in the second half of 2025, involving an investment of $950 million to $1,050 million [14] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 2% and 12.6%, respectively, with a stock price increase of 40.5% year to date [15]