For more on this dynamic, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy, Hale Lima Croft. She's also a CNBC contributor. Hale Lima, we kind of know the headlines.Obviously, there's not a lot of detail around just how active or just how advanced the planning is for any possible move in the Middle East, especially Iran. What exactly are you hearing and how exactly are you interpreting what we do know right now. Well, we certainly know there's been a significant redeployment of US milita ...

If strikes do happen, what are, you know, possible implications for oil markets we need to think about. >> Well, I think you'll see an immediate risk premium apply. Oil prices will jump right away, even if barrels are not taken off the market, just on the risk alone.But the key thing to watch with Iran is the straight of Hormuse. 20 million barrels per day of crude and other petroleum products go through there. That's about 20% of all global maritime trade of crude.It's a huge global choke point. Iran large ...

Moving Averages Signal Solid Foundation for Extended RallyTechnically, this move is being fueled by breakouts above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, making both support at $58.61 and $60.57, respectively. Furthermore, with the market spending so much time under these moving averages, a strong base has been built, giving the market solid support for an intermediate and long-term rally.Real Buying Power or Just Another Short-Covering Spike?But is this the start of a long-term rally, given the well-supp ...

All right, let's start with this move that we've seen in that gas. When we talk about the widowmaker trade, especially when you start to come into March, um how does this compare to some of the volatility we've seen in the past. >> Um it's been quite volatile.We haven't seen this since the last like polar vortex in 2018. Um the duration of the cold and the intensity of cold pushing south has frozen off about 10% of the gas and we're at record demand. You got to realize that over the past 10 years, we haven' ...

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Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased on Monday, recovering part of the previous week's 4% decline, driven by concerns over potential disruptions from escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, which overshadowed ongoing worries about oversupply in the market [1] Group 1 - Oil prices rose as tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions [1] - The increase in oil prices comes after a 4% decline in the previous week, indicating a volatile market environment [1] - Lingering oversupply concerns continue to affect the oil market, but geopolitical factors are currently taking precedence [1]

Supply and Production - Oil from Lukoil PJSC's share of a field in Iraq continues to flow to global markets [1] - This alleviates concerns about supply disruption following sanctions on the Russian energy giant [1]

Summary of Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) - **Ticker**: 2600 HK / 601600 CH Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Earnings**: Reported earnings of RMB 3.8 billion, representing an increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 90% year-on-year (y-o-y) [1] - **Sales Volume**: Both alumina and aluminum sales volumes rose slightly by 1% y-o-y [1] - **Alumina Prices**: Increased by 3% q-o-q but decreased by 20% y-o-y [1] - **Aluminum Prices**: Rose by 2% q-o-q and 6% y-o-y [1] - **Revenue**: Flat q-o-q, but gross profit improved significantly due to lower production costs, primarily from cheaper bauxite [1] - **SG&A Expenses**: Declined by 13% y-o-y due to effective cost control [1] Production and Cost Guidance - **Bauxite Production**: Guinea's Boffa mine is ramping up steadily, with a target of approximately 10% y-o-y production growth for 2025 and a self-sufficiency ratio of around 60% [2] - **Cost Advantage**: Estimated cost advantage of RMB 100 per ton for self-mined bauxite compared to imported ore [2] - **Cost Guidance**: - Aluminum all-in cost below RMB 15,000 per ton in 3Q25; electricity cost between RMB 0.44 and 0.45 per kWh [2] - Alumina cash cost below RMB 2,700 per ton in 3Q25, trending lower excluding bauxite [2] - **Capex**: Management revised capital expenditure guidance to RMB 15 billion for 2025 from a previous estimate of RMB 20 billion [2] Market Outlook - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: Expected to remain elevated through 4Q25 to 2026, while alumina prices may remain weak due to rising domestic and imported supply [2] - **Global Market Dynamics**: Favorable conditions due to supply disruptions at Century Aluminum's Nordural smelter in Iceland and South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique, combined with China's production ceiling of 45 million tons and low inventories [3] - **Policy Support**: "Anti-involution" production discipline is expected to reinforce price stability and profitability [3] Investment Recommendations - **Rating**: Maintain Buy rating on Chalco's H/A shares, viewing the company as a key beneficiary of strong aluminum fundamentals and improving margins [4] - **Target Prices**: - Raised target price for H-share to HKD 11.40 from HKD 7.70, implying a 24% upside [4] - Raised target price for A-share to RMB 11.30 from RMB 10.50, implying a 20% upside [4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: Revised earnings estimates up by 18% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 14% for 2027 [19] - **EPS Projections**: Expected EPS of RMB 0.87 for 2025, RMB 1.03 for 2026, and RMB 1.05 for 2027 [7][20] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected demand from property completions - New regulations leading to higher production costs - Potential bauxite supply disruptions - Geopolitical risks related to overseas resource acquisitions [23] Additional Insights - **Coal Business**: Contributed approximately 4% of total revenue in 2024, primarily for energy security; no plans to increase investment in coal-related business as the company focuses on renewable energy [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Aluminum Corp of China, highlighting financial performance, market outlook, investment recommendations, and associated risks.

Market Trends - Copper is heading for its biggest weekly advance since April [1] - Gains are supported by supply disruptions, a weaker US dollar, and optimism about demand [1]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].