A stated goal of President Donald Trump's ambitious tariff policy was to reduce the United States' trade deficits around the world, but at least one has ballooned this year: the travel trade deficit. A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. When it comes to travel, that means when Americans are spending more money on travel abroad than international visitors are spending in the United States.According to the US Travel Association's travel forecast released last ...

India’s trade deficit narrowed in August, even as exporters brace for pain from President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs https://t.co/R4jIOcdjFZ ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

We can see the trade deficit widens to $78.3% billion from 60.2% billion. And that's largely because we imported a lot. 55.9% increase in imports. 3/10 percent increase in exports.Get back to that in a second. Jobless claims now to 37, a little bit higher than anticipated. The 230 was the forecast last week to 29.The continuing claims number 1,940,000. That's down from 1,000,009 44. So some mixed numbers on jobless claims.Probably don't add anything to the narrative of what's going on in the labor market. N ...

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed by more than expected as the country’s exports show signs of a slow rebound from the shock of US tariffs https://t.co/r8RCYBJkAo ...

Trade Deficit - The US trade deficit increased to a four-month high in July [1] - Companies accelerated imports of goods and materials [1] Trade Policy Impact - Companies acted in anticipation of new tariffs imposed by President Trump on global trading partners [1]

India’s trade deficit widened more-than-expected last month, as inbound shipments rose more than exports https://t.co/4KL2orFPHv ...

The US agricultural trade deficit hit a record high in the first half of 2025, underscoring the continued decline of American farmers’ long-dominant role in global exports https://t.co/6QRPJyD6qc ...

Trade Balance - US overall trade deficit narrowed by 160% to $602 billion in June [1] - US-China trade deficit decreased by approximately one-third to $95 billion, the lowest since February 2004 [1] - US-China trade deficit has shrunk by $222 billion, a 70% decrease, after five consecutive months of decline [1]

Trade Balance - US trade deficit narrowed to the tightest since September 2023 [1] - Companies scaled back on imports after a massive surge earlier in the year [1]