Gold (GC=F) fell 6% to around $5,000 per ounce on Friday while silver (SI=F) tumbled 14% in a sharp reversal of this year's massive rally in precious metals. The volatility came alongside a wider stock market sell-off, with the major averages all lower. "The higher metals rise, the more likely 2026 will mark enduring price peaks — notably for silver — if history is a guide," Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg, wrote on Friday. "There are always sound fundamental reasons for rallies ...

Additional inflation, triggered by a continued slide in the currency, could prevent the bank from cutting rates, as Trump wants it to. ...

A weaker USD increasingly seems to be a direct objective of US economic policy, rather than a byproduct of it. President Trump recently said he is not worried about the USD weakening and, on the contrary, he thinks the value of theDecoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum an ...

智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，1月至今COMEX黄金涨幅超25%、白银涨幅超65%，牛市的 演绎程度超出市场预期，波动率也随之显著上行，短期或存在一定的获利了结和情绪边际降温调整，带 来贵金属的宽幅波动。该行指板块仍需持续关注，依然看好贵金属的年度机会;若现短期宽幅波动行 情，则严格更新止损位即可。全球地缘风险和央行购金支撑，而AI技术对美国就业市场的冲击仍存， 叠加逆全球化带来的通胀中枢支撑，贵金属的年度逻辑未发生改变，尤其关注26H2因美国中期选举而 可能产生的超预期宽松。 方正证券主要观点如下： 12月底-1月中上旬，为贵金属行情埋下了三大伏笔 伏笔一：市场对美联储独立性担忧的扩散可能性。1月初，市场对美联储降息幅度和节奏的预期较谨 慎，CME预期显示仅上下半年各降25BP。然而，特朗普表示1月会公布美联储主席继任者，并强调2025 年12月的降息幅度应该加倍，同时暗示解雇、起诉鲍威尔的可能性，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧， 并将对美联储主席换届(2026年5月)的交易提至2026年初。 伏笔二：地缘风险中枢上行的可能性。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动+扩大对委内瑞拉石油出口的监管+特 朗普吞并格陵兰 ...

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Group 1 - The report from CICC highlights a resurgence of the US and Japanese bond market turmoil, reflecting global geopolitical tensions and liquidity fluctuations driven by fiscal dominance [1] - CICC warns that volatility in the US bond market could trigger systemic risks in overseas markets, and controlling deficits politically is nearly impossible under the current fiscal framework [1] - The implementation of financial repression policies such as Yield Curve Control (YCC) may become necessary to suppress long-term interest rates, leading to a trend of increased dollar liquidity and a weaker dollar [1] - This environment is expected to favor commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as emerging markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, which remains significantly underweighted by global funds [1] - The combination of easing global liquidity and the trend of overseas funds converting to RMB may boost the RMB against the USD, supporting a prolonged bull market in Chinese equities [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities forecasts an upward trend in yellow phosphorus demand due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and terminal materials for new energy, as well as electronic-grade phosphoric acid and fine phosphates [2] - The cost competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid is expected to enhance demand for both thermal process phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus, especially amid high prices for sulfur and sulfuric acid [2] - Supply-side constraints due to high energy consumption and safety regulations are limiting new yellow phosphorus production capacity, with only slight increases through capacity replacement [2] - Under the dual carbon policy, existing high-energy-consuming capacities may face elimination pressures, leading to a favorable supply-demand scenario for yellow phosphorus and related products [2] - Leading companies with yellow phosphorus production capacity and integrated operations from phosphate rock to yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid are expected to benefit from this trend [2] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities anticipates that the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver will continue to rise due to marginal easing of dollar liquidity and escalating global geopolitical conflicts over strategic resources [3]

Gold and Mining Stocks - Gold prices rebounded by approximately $55, leading to an increase in mining stocks such as Newmont Corp., which rose by about $1.85 [1] - SSR Mining shares increased by around 50 cents, while Freeport-McMoRan shares gained about 80 cents following the gold price rebound [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Despite a recent pullback in gold prices, factors such as growing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, expectations of further interest rate cuts, a weak dollar, and strong central bank interest could drive gold prices significantly higher [2] - Bank of America, JPMorgan, and HSBC analysts have set gold price targets of $5,000 to $5,055 by early 2026 [2] Rocket Lab Corp. - Rocket Lab Corp. shares rose by about $2 in premarket trading, following a significant increase from $40.88 to nearly $80 [3] - The company received a prime contract worth $816 million from the U.S. Space Development Agency to design and manufacture 18 satellites for missile tracking and defense [4][5] - In its third quarter, Rocket Lab reported a 48% year-over-year revenue increase to $155.1 million and narrowed its EPS loss to -$0.03 from -$0.10 a year ago [6] - The company projects Q4 revenue between $170 million and $180 million, slightly above expectations, with an adjusted EBITDA loss forecast of $23 million to $29 million [6] Micron Technology - Shares of Micron Technology increased by another $2.10 after a nearly $10 rise on Monday [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have experienced a historic rally at the end of the year, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity [1][3] - Gold prices surged to over $4,540 per ounce, while silver rose more than 10% to surpass $79 per ounce, and platinum reached a record high of over $2,400 per ounce [1][3] - Year-to-date, gold has increased by approximately 70%, and silver has risen over 150%, both on track for their best annual performance since 1979 [3][4] Group 2: Driving Factors - Increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold and silver, has been a significant driver of the recent price increases due to geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. actions against Venezuela and military operations against ISIS [3][4] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, which fell 0.7% this week, has also supported precious metals, as their prices are typically inversely related to the dollar's strength [3][4] - Central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global largest precious metal ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its gold holdings increase by over 20% this year, significantly influencing the recent price highs [4] - Silver's price surge is attributed to a supply mismatch following a historic short squeeze in October, with ongoing speculative inflows exacerbating the situation [4][5] - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 40% this month, driven by strong physical demand and a projected global supply deficit for the third consecutive year, primarily due to disruptions in South Africa [5]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal research and due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of complex financial instruments like cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are encouraged to consult competent advisors and consider their individual financial situations before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website highlights the high risk associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, noting that they are complex instruments that can lead to significant financial losses [1]. - It advises users to fully understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1]. - The content may include advertisements and promotional materials, with the company potentially receiving compensation from third parties [1].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to lead to an increase in inflation, depending on the extent and speed of these cuts [1] Group 1: Impact of Lower Interest Rates - Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, which can boost consumer spending on homes, cars, and business investments [2] - Increased demand from consumer spending can lead to rising prices if it outpaces supply, thereby pushing inflation higher [3] Group 2: Effects on Savings and Investments - Low interest rates result in lower returns on savings accounts and bonds, encouraging consumers to spend or invest in riskier assets [4][5] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Dynamics - Rate cuts typically weaken the U.S. dollar, as investors seek higher returns elsewhere, which can lead to higher prices for imported goods [6][7] - A weaker dollar contributes to imported inflation, adding further pressure on overall price levels [7] Group 4: Short-term Benefits of Rate Cuts - In the short term, rate cuts can help mitigate economic slowdowns by encouraging spending and investment, potentially softening recession impacts [8]