Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...

INSIGHT: Strategy's mNAV dips to 0.86x at $143.19 per share. https://t.co/3azL9cGCu4 ...

Group 1 - The company continued to buy Bitcoin as its price fell to a five-week low, spending $267 million and acquiring approximately 2,900 BTC, marking a slowdown compared to previous weeks where it spent $1.2 billion and $2.1 billion [1] - The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin now possesses 712,600 BTC, valued at $62.7 billion, with Bitcoin recently trading around $87,600 [2] - The company's stock price has decreased over 60% in the past six months but has stabilized, increasing by 1.5% over the last 30 days [3] Group 2 - The latest Bitcoin purchase was primarily funded through the issuance of common stock, which accounted for 97% of the $264 million raised [3] - The company has raised $421 million by offering its variable rate preferred stock, STRC, which pays an annualized cash rate of 11% [4] - When STRC trades above $100, the company plans to issue more preferred stock to maintain its price while using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin [5] Group 3 - The company's cash reserves are sufficient to cover 30 months of dividend payments, coinciding with a decline in its multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) [6] - The company measures success by the increase in Bitcoin owned per share, known as BTC Yield, and considers issuing common stock positively effective when mNAV is above 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Bernstein predict that the company's growth will recover alongside Bitcoin's price, which is expected to rise significantly in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Company Valuation and Performance - The company is currently valued at a slight premium to its digital asset holdings, which is anticipated to increase as investor confidence grows [1]. - Historically, the company has been valued at a multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) of 1.57, but this has recently declined to 1.02 [2][3]. - The company's stock price fell over 6% to approximately $154, with shares dropping more than 50% last year despite reaching a high of $457 [5]. Group 2: Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Strategy - The company has utilized various types of preferred stock to fund Bitcoin purchases, raising concerns about its ability to make dividend payments as Bitcoin's price fell by 23% in the previous quarter [4]. - Bernstein analysts believe the company will benefit significantly from a recovery in Bitcoin's price, which they predict could reach as high as $150,000 by 2026 [5]. - The company disclosed a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in the fourth quarter, indicating a decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The company has established a $2.25 billion "USD Reserve" to pre-pay dividends, which some analysts view as a prudent measure [7]. - There is a 17% chance that the company will sell Bitcoin this year, according to traders on a prediction market [7]. - Bernstein maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a price target of $450 [6].

Group 1 - Strategy Company (MSTR.US) disclosed the purchase of 1,229 bitcoins for a total of $108.8 million, averaging $88,568 per bitcoin, funded by common stock issuance [1][5] - The total bitcoin holdings of Strategy have increased to 672,497 bitcoins, valued at $50.4 billion with an average cost of $74,997 per bitcoin [1][5] - Despite the challenging performance of bitcoin this year, Strategy remains profitable under the leadership of Michael Saylor [1][5] Group 2 - Bitcoin has experienced a decline of approximately 30% since reaching a historical high in early October, while Strategy's stock price has dropped over 50% in the same period [3][6] - The company's key valuation metric, mNAV, is around 1.1, raising concerns among investors about a potential shift to a negative value [3][6] - MSCI is considering excluding companies with significant digital asset holdings from its indices, which could impact Strategy, currently a component of major indices like NASDAQ 100 and MSCI US Index [4][7] Group 3 - Analysts from JPMorgan warned that if MSCI proceeds with its exclusion plan, Strategy could face an outflow of $2.8 billion, and if other index providers follow suit, the outflow could reach $8.8 billion [4][7] - The recent sharp decline in bitcoin prices has led to a lack of confidence in the crypto market, with investors withdrawing from bitcoin ETF markets and a cautious attitude in the derivatives market [4][7] - This year may mark the fourth annual decline for bitcoin, occurring without any major scandals or industry collapses [4][7]

Core Insights - The emergence of crypto treasury firms has been facilitated by a supportive regulatory environment, particularly following leadership changes at the SEC, which has allowed more companies to enter the market [2][3] - The concept of multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) has become a key metric for assessing the valuation of crypto treasury firms relative to their digital asset holdings [7][8] - Despite initial enthusiasm, many crypto treasury firms have seen their stock prices decline, raising questions about their long-term viability in the market [7][12] Industry Trends - A significant number of publicly traded companies are now holding Bitcoin, with around 200 companies reported to have Bitcoin on their balance sheets [16] - The proliferation of crypto treasury firms has led to increased competition and challenges in differentiating between companies, resulting in attention and liquidity fragmentation [17] - The trend of companies adopting digital assets as treasury reserves has evolved, with some firms pivoting from traditional industries to crypto investments [10][18] Financial Metrics - mNAV is calculated by dividing a company's market cap by the net value of its crypto holdings, providing insight into whether a company is trading at a premium or discount [8] - Companies like Strategy have utilized mNAV to issue common stock for Bitcoin purchases, aiming to increase their holdings per share [9] - The decline in mNAVs for many firms has limited their ability to raise funds and has led to strategic shifts, including share buybacks and selling crypto assets [12][23] Company Strategies - Firms are exploring various strategies to accumulate digital assets, including staking and developing validator networks to generate additional revenue [21][22] - Some companies, such as AlphaTON Capital, are focusing on specific cryptocurrencies and ecosystems, indicating a trend towards specialization within the crypto treasury space [19][21] - The future of crypto treasury firms remains uncertain, with some companies considering alternative strategies like lending Bitcoin to adapt to changing market conditions [24]

Core Insights - The company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is facing potential financial jeopardy as it considers selling Bitcoin for the first time since August 2020, which could signal distress and impact the wider crypto market [1][5][12] - The company's market value to Bitcoin holdings ratio (mNAV) is currently at 1.13, indicating it may need to take drastic actions if it falls below 1.0 [2] - The company has revised its earnings guidance significantly downward, projecting a potential annual loss of $5.5 billion or gains of $6.3 billion depending on Bitcoin's price fluctuations [2][3] Financial Position - The company announced a $1.4 billion reserve to meet dividend and interest payments, funded by diluting current shareholders [4] - The company's stock has been under pressure, trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [5][9] - The company has historically weathered downturns but now faces structural pressures that complicate its financial model [10][11] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors have increasingly entered the Bitcoin market, contributing to its recent rebound above $90,000, but the company’s reliance on Bitcoin's price remains a significant risk [7][10] - The potential for index exclusion could lead to mechanical selling, further impacting the company's stock price [12] - The company's stock has dropped by 51% over the past year, contrasting with Bitcoin's relatively flat performance [14] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the company’s concentration risk may diminish as more Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs emerge, but recovery in stock performance may take time [14] - The CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company believes the company is not in true financial jeopardy unless specific economic conditions arise, indicating some structural support for the company [13] - The psychological impact of a potential Bitcoin sale by the company could trigger market panic, despite the actual supply hitting the market being limited [12]

Market Overview - Tech stocks related to Bitcoin have shown a slight recovery in overnight trading, but overall losses from the previous day remain significant. Bitcoin has decreased by 21% over the past month, stabilizing around $87K per coin with a 0.72% increase today [1] - Coinbase and Robinhood experienced declines of 4.76% and 4.09% respectively yesterday, but both saw minor recoveries in premarket trading [1] Company Analysis: Strategy - Michael Saylor's Strategy, a prominent Bitcoin treasury company, has a market capitalization of $50.6 billion, while its 650,000 Bitcoins are valued at $56.7 billion. The company's theoretical enterprise value stands at $65.2 billion, resulting in a "mNAV" ratio of 1.15, indicating its enterprise value exceeds its Bitcoin holdings by 15% [2][3] - A critical threshold for Strategy is an mNAV below one, which would undermine the rationale for holding the stock and could lead to a significant sell-off [4] Strategic Decisions and Risks - CEO Phong Le indicated a willingness to sell Bitcoin to fulfill dividend obligations on debt and preferred shares if the mNAV drops below one. This statement marks a shift from Saylor's previous stance of never selling Bitcoin [5][6] - Strategy currently holds over 3% of all Bitcoin, and any forced sales could trigger a broader market impact. Traders who engaged in leveraged positions against Strategy have faced substantial losses, with certain exchange-traded funds losing over 80% of their value, totaling a $1.5 billion loss in the past month [6]

RT Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets)🦔I keep seeing people call Michael Saylor's Strategy a Ponzi scheme, so I wanted to walk through what's actually happening because the truth is more nuanced than the hot takes suggest.The Business Model and NumbersStrategy has no meaningful operating income. The company borrows money and issues stock to buy Bitcoin, then issues preferred shares that pay 8-10% dividends to fund more borrowing. That cycle works as long as Bitcoin keeps going up and they can raise capital. They hold 6 ...

Bitcoin Treasury Companies Analysis - The report discusses the meaning of "mNAV" for Bitcoin Treasury companies [1] - The report also highlights where "mNAV" falls short [1] Industry Focus - The report is presented by @GeniusGroupLtd_ [1] - The report is part of BTC Treasuries Month [1]