A key piston in Strategy’s growth engine should recover alongside Bitcoin’s price despite sputtering last year, analysts at investment firm Bernstein predicted in a Tuesday note. Although the Bitcoin-buying firm is currently valued at a slight premium to its digital asset holdings, that premium should enlarge again as investors grow more confident in the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm’s ability to hold onto the asset, they wrote. “As concerns over MSTR’s liquidation event get resolved, we expect a stro ...

数据显示，自10月初创下历史新高以来，比特币已下跌约30%。同期，Strategy的股价暴跌超50%。根据 该公司网站数据，其关键估值指标mNAV（即公司企业价值与其所持比特币价值的比值）在周一约为 1.1。这提醒人们，投资者仍然担忧该指标可能在曾享有显著溢价后，很快转为负值。 值得一提的是，指数编制公司MSCI正考虑将持有比特币或其他数字资产作为库藏资产的公司排除在其 指数之外，并已就此事征求投资界意见。MSCI表示："MSCI提议，将数字资产持仓占总资产50%及以 上的公司，从MSCI全球可投资市场指数系列中剔除。"此次意见征询期将持续至12月31日，最终决定将 于2026年1月15日前公布。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：智通财经网 Strategy 公司 （MSTR.US） 在周一披露，其在 12 月 22 日至 28 日期间以总计 1.088 亿美元的价格购买 了 1，229 枚比特币。 根据提交给美国证券交易委员会 （SEC） 的一份文件显示，这批最新的比特币是以每枚 88568 美元的 平均价格购入的。这些代币的资金来源于普通股发行。 该公司持有的比 ...

If hundreds of publicly traded companies begin buying Bitcoin all at once, how can investors separate the winners from the losers? At its most basic, the industry’s answer was mNAV.“If you think about it, most of these [crypto treasury firms] originated by a reverse takeover,” she said “The SEC, under the prior administration, would never have signed off on these companies coming into existence.”Instead of pursuing a time-consuming public offering, many crypto treasury firms have stemmed from reverse merger ...

Core Insights - The company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is facing potential financial jeopardy as it considers selling Bitcoin for the first time since August 2020, which could signal distress and impact the wider crypto market [1][5][12] - The company's market value to Bitcoin holdings ratio (mNAV) is currently at 1.13, indicating it may need to take drastic actions if it falls below 1.0 [2] - The company has revised its earnings guidance significantly downward, projecting a potential annual loss of $5.5 billion or gains of $6.3 billion depending on Bitcoin's price fluctuations [2][3] Financial Position - The company announced a $1.4 billion reserve to meet dividend and interest payments, funded by diluting current shareholders [4] - The company's stock has been under pressure, trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [5][9] - The company has historically weathered downturns but now faces structural pressures that complicate its financial model [10][11] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors have increasingly entered the Bitcoin market, contributing to its recent rebound above $90,000, but the company’s reliance on Bitcoin's price remains a significant risk [7][10] - The potential for index exclusion could lead to mechanical selling, further impacting the company's stock price [12] - The company's stock has dropped by 51% over the past year, contrasting with Bitcoin's relatively flat performance [14] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the company’s concentration risk may diminish as more Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs emerge, but recovery in stock performance may take time [14] - The CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company believes the company is not in true financial jeopardy unless specific economic conditions arise, indicating some structural support for the company [13] - The psychological impact of a potential Bitcoin sale by the company could trigger market panic, despite the actual supply hitting the market being limited [12]

Market Overview - Tech stocks related to Bitcoin have shown a slight recovery in overnight trading, but overall losses from the previous day remain significant. Bitcoin has decreased by 21% over the past month, stabilizing around $87K per coin with a 0.72% increase today [1] - Coinbase and Robinhood experienced declines of 4.76% and 4.09% respectively yesterday, but both saw minor recoveries in premarket trading [1] Company Analysis: Strategy - Michael Saylor's Strategy, a prominent Bitcoin treasury company, has a market capitalization of $50.6 billion, while its 650,000 Bitcoins are valued at $56.7 billion. The company's theoretical enterprise value stands at $65.2 billion, resulting in a "mNAV" ratio of 1.15, indicating its enterprise value exceeds its Bitcoin holdings by 15% [2][3] - A critical threshold for Strategy is an mNAV below one, which would undermine the rationale for holding the stock and could lead to a significant sell-off [4] Strategic Decisions and Risks - CEO Phong Le indicated a willingness to sell Bitcoin to fulfill dividend obligations on debt and preferred shares if the mNAV drops below one. This statement marks a shift from Saylor's previous stance of never selling Bitcoin [5][6] - Strategy currently holds over 3% of all Bitcoin, and any forced sales could trigger a broader market impact. Traders who engaged in leveraged positions against Strategy have faced substantial losses, with certain exchange-traded funds losing over 80% of their value, totaling a $1.5 billion loss in the past month [6]

RT Hedgie (@HedgieMarkets)🦔I keep seeing people call Michael Saylor's Strategy a Ponzi scheme, so I wanted to walk through what's actually happening because the truth is more nuanced than the hot takes suggest.The Business Model and NumbersStrategy has no meaningful operating income. The company borrows money and issues stock to buy Bitcoin, then issues preferred shares that pay 8-10% dividends to fund more borrowing. That cycle works as long as Bitcoin keeps going up and they can raise capital. They hold 6 ...

Bitcoin Treasury Companies Analysis - The report discusses the meaning of "mNAV" for Bitcoin Treasury companies [1] - The report also highlights where "mNAV" falls short [1] Industry Focus - The report is presented by @GeniusGroupLtd_ [1] - The report is part of BTC Treasuries Month [1]

Core Insights - MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le has acknowledged the possibility of selling the company's 649,870 BTC holdings under specific crisis conditions, marking a significant departure from the previous "never sell" philosophy of Chairman Michael Saylor [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company has confirmed that selling Bitcoin is an option in its strategy toolkit if financial conditions deteriorate, although there are no near-term sales planned [2][3] - The mNAV (market value to Bitcoin holdings ratio) is currently around 0.95x, approaching the 0.9x "danger zone," indicating potential liquidity pressures [4][5] Group 2: Financial Obligations - If mNAV falls below 0.9x, MicroStrategy may be compelled to sell portions of its Bitcoin treasury to meet $750–$800 million in annual preferred share dividend payments [6] - The company previously relied on new equity issuances to cover these costs, but with stock prices down over 60% from their highs, this option is becoming limited [7] Group 3: Market Perception - Analysts suggest that MicroStrategy has transformed into a "leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached," which could amplify stress during periods of liquidity tightening or increased volatility [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent drop below $90,000 has negatively impacted nearly all investors, including Strategy, a major corporate Bitcoin holder [1][2] - Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy, remains confident, asserting that the company can endure an 80%-90% decline in Bitcoin value [2][6] Company Valuation Metrics - Strategy's mNAV (multiple to net asset value) has fallen below 1, a concerning indicator for Bitcoin treasury firms, as it suggests the company's enterprise value is less than its Bitcoin holdings [5][6] - Analysts indicate that an mNAV below 1 is unsustainable for companies in the Bitcoin treasury sector, raising questions about their operational viability [6] Market Dynamics and Volatility - Saylor emphasizes that Bitcoin's historical volatility is part of its cycle, noting that it has experienced 15 significant drawdowns in its 15-year history but has consistently reached new all-time highs [3] - The annualized volatility of Bitcoin has decreased from approximately 80% in 2020 to around 50% today, according to Saylor [3] Debt and Liquidation Concerns - Saylor reassures that Strategy's debts are convertible, which means that even in a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin's value drops to zero, lenders cannot force liquidation of the company's holdings [4] - Analysts caution that the real issue lies in whether Strategy can continue to operate with its stock trading below the value of its Bitcoin assets [4][6] mNAV Implications - An mNAV greater than 1 indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium for the company's Bitcoin, allowing for easier capital raising through stock sales [7] - An mNAV equal to 1 means the market values the company at parity with its Bitcoin holdings, while an mNAV below 1 suggests that investors perceive the company as worth less than its Bitcoin assets [7]

The DAT trade summarizedAll mNAVs now well below 1 https://t.co/v3anmhucrL ...